Afghan election: candidates' shared optimism points to bitter aftermath

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/afghan-election-candidates-optimism-recriminations

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Both candidates in Afghanistan's presidential election runoff have all but claimed victory long before ballots even arrive in tallying centres, potentially setting the stage for weeks of bitter arguments over the results.

More than 60 people were killed in Taliban attacks on Saturday, with dozens more injured including 11 men whose index fingers were cut off by the Taliban because they were stained with the indelible ink that marked them out as voters.

It was the second poll in less than three months, and despite violence in the last round and the threat of further attacks Afghans still turned out in force for a historic vote. The choice of a new leader, after more than a decade under President Hamid Karzai, marks the country's first democratic transfer of power.

A drop in voter interest in some areas was offset at least in part by a leap in numbers going to the polls elsewhere, particularly the conservative east where Taliban influence makes voting particularly dangerous and women are rarely allowed out to polling stations.

Election authorities put turnout at more than 7 million in an early estimate, higher than the 5 April first round, although that was questioned by one of the candidates and at least some observers.

"The turnout was good, but it sounded as if it was somewhat less than the first round. That is how we saw it," said Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister and mujahideen doctor who was the clear frontrunner in the first round with over 45% of the vote.

At a news conference just a few hours after voting closed, he skirted close to election authorities' request that the campaigns not claim victory before preliminary results are announced on 2 July.

"Our performance was outstanding," Abdullah told journalists, backed by rows of MPs, ministers and other powerbrokers who have backed his campaign. "I'm not here to make any prediction about the percentage, but I think the initial study looks very good for us."

Half an hour later on the other side of town, his rival Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister and World Bank technocrat, was equally confident.

"Our own analysis is that we have done very well … but as people who take rule of law seriously, we'll await the process of counting," he said, before adding with a grin: "One sign – look at us and how we smile, and look at others and how they frown."

Although he claimed only 32% of the first round vote, many of the areas that reported a doubling or more of turnout in initial figures are strongholds for his campaign.

In at least one province, tribal leaders had made a binding pact to break with tradition and let their wives and daughters cast ballots in order to bolster turnout, the Afghanistan Analysts Network reported.

The election authorities have several weeks to collect ballots from remote areas, tally them all up and then sift through competing claims of fraud and intimidation from both camps, in an atmosphere tainted by increasingly bitter partisan rhetoric, on Facebook, Twitter and television.

Hanging over the long wait for a final result is the fear that after running two elections that were far safer and more popular than most had dared hope for, Afghanistan could still be plunged into political turmoil if the vote-counting and fraud investigations are disputed and the losing campaign refuses to concede defeat.

Diplomats and election observers have appealed for calm as the slow process begins, and warned that undermining election authorities risks destroying the credibility of the whole vote.

"Now the electoral commissions must perform their roles impartially, responsibly and transparently. Vigilance and oversight are essential and allegations of fraud need to be addressed," said the US ambassador, James Cunningham. "But the candidates and their supporters should refrain from premature judgments and from criticism that is not supported with clear evidence."