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Afghanistan's presidential election may just change the country's fate Afghanistan's presidential election may just change the country's fate
(about 1 hour later)
The fury generated by the handover of Sergeant Bergdahl and the release of five Taliban prisoners from Guantánamo Bay is distracting attention from a rare political opportunity. This Saturday, the decisive round of voting takes place to elect the next president of Afghanistan. If the winner is viewed by Afghans to have been legitimately elected, and if the runner-up concedes, an opportunity of enormous significance will have been created.The fury generated by the handover of Sergeant Bergdahl and the release of five Taliban prisoners from Guantánamo Bay is distracting attention from a rare political opportunity. This Saturday, the decisive round of voting takes place to elect the next president of Afghanistan. If the winner is viewed by Afghans to have been legitimately elected, and if the runner-up concedes, an opportunity of enormous significance will have been created.
Things may go badly wrong, as last week's assassination attempt on one of the two leading candidates, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, underscored. There will be electoral irregularities, fraud, and violence, but the first-round vote went much better than expected, in terms of turnout, electoral organisation, security and acceptance by the candidates of the results.Things may go badly wrong, as last week's assassination attempt on one of the two leading candidates, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, underscored. There will be electoral irregularities, fraud, and violence, but the first-round vote went much better than expected, in terms of turnout, electoral organisation, security and acceptance by the candidates of the results.
A second round of voting that delivers a decisive result, combined with widely shared interests in Afghanistan, could provide a basis for that rare thing: concerted international action for peace and stability.A second round of voting that delivers a decisive result, combined with widely shared interests in Afghanistan, could provide a basis for that rare thing: concerted international action for peace and stability.
Unlike Syria, Iraq or Ukraine, Afghanistan has neighbours who share strong common interests in its future. These include the elimination of its role as a safe haven for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups, and reducing the flow of refugees, drugs and arms. Moreover, Afghanistan has vast mineral and natural resources, and could link populous south Asia with resource-rich central Asia.Unlike Syria, Iraq or Ukraine, Afghanistan has neighbours who share strong common interests in its future. These include the elimination of its role as a safe haven for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups, and reducing the flow of refugees, drugs and arms. Moreover, Afghanistan has vast mineral and natural resources, and could link populous south Asia with resource-rich central Asia.
Stability in Afghanistan is sought not only by the US and its allies but also by China, Russia, the Gulf and central Asian states, India and Iran. Pakistan may be on board, too, though after years of offering sanctuary and support to the Afghan Taliban, scepticism about a strategic shift in Pakistan's attitude is understandable. But with its own virulent Taliban insurgency, and deep economic and social problems, Pakistanis increasingly recognise that they will benefit from Afghan stability.Stability in Afghanistan is sought not only by the US and its allies but also by China, Russia, the Gulf and central Asian states, India and Iran. Pakistan may be on board, too, though after years of offering sanctuary and support to the Afghan Taliban, scepticism about a strategic shift in Pakistan's attitude is understandable. But with its own virulent Taliban insurgency, and deep economic and social problems, Pakistanis increasingly recognise that they will benefit from Afghan stability.
If Afghanistan's presidential election goes well, three steps will boost confidence:If Afghanistan's presidential election goes well, three steps will boost confidence:
1) The new president must address Afghans' most pressing needs: security, justice, jobs and basic services. Actions will speak louder than words. The appointment of competent officials and action on corruption – an arrest or two – would be a great start. Both candidates say they will quickly sign the bilateral security agreement with the US. That is essential. But security, particularly for women and girls, is not just about a strong army. It is about having someone to turn to, without having to pay a bribe, if your land or property is stolen, if you are abused or if you need a school certificate.1) The new president must address Afghans' most pressing needs: security, justice, jobs and basic services. Actions will speak louder than words. The appointment of competent officials and action on corruption – an arrest or two – would be a great start. Both candidates say they will quickly sign the bilateral security agreement with the US. That is essential. But security, particularly for women and girls, is not just about a strong army. It is about having someone to turn to, without having to pay a bribe, if your land or property is stolen, if you are abused or if you need a school certificate.
2) Donor countries need to reaffirm predictable levels of financial support for the next five years. Nato's Cardiff summit in September and the London ministerial conference on Afghanistan in November are good moments. The first will focus on support for Afghan security forces, and the second the basis upon which civilian aid will continue. Maintaining political support in western capitals will be far from easy. The hubbub in Washington around the release of Taliban prisoners and bitter attacks on US foreign policy, including from former insiders, whether over Syria or the broader Middle East, do not help. But in Afghanistan, the case for bipartisan support is strong. Relatively modest financial assistance will help ensure that the enormous human and financial investment in Afghanistan is not wasted, gains on the ground are secured, and the world is safer.2) Donor countries need to reaffirm predictable levels of financial support for the next five years. Nato's Cardiff summit in September and the London ministerial conference on Afghanistan in November are good moments. The first will focus on support for Afghan security forces, and the second the basis upon which civilian aid will continue. Maintaining political support in western capitals will be far from easy. The hubbub in Washington around the release of Taliban prisoners and bitter attacks on US foreign policy, including from former insiders, whether over Syria or the broader Middle East, do not help. But in Afghanistan, the case for bipartisan support is strong. Relatively modest financial assistance will help ensure that the enormous human and financial investment in Afghanistan is not wasted, gains on the ground are secured, and the world is safer.
3) A stronger partnership is needed between the new government and both western and regional states, including China and Russia. Their influence is central to regional stability, as is the Americans'.3) A stronger partnership is needed between the new government and both western and regional states, including China and Russia. Their influence is central to regional stability, as is the Americans'.
The current president, Hamid Karzai, has deeply alienated the US but his successor can press the reset button. The mutual accountability framework agreed two years ago in Tokyo between the Afghans and western donors can be the cornerstone of a broader partnership. The objective must be to help the Afghans achieve a more accountable, sustainable and secure state. It needs to include support for an intra-Afghan reconciliation process. In 2013, an average of 400 soldiers and 250 civilians were killed each month, and the figures for 2014 will be higher than any year since 2001. The human toll and violence must come down.The current president, Hamid Karzai, has deeply alienated the US but his successor can press the reset button. The mutual accountability framework agreed two years ago in Tokyo between the Afghans and western donors can be the cornerstone of a broader partnership. The objective must be to help the Afghans achieve a more accountable, sustainable and secure state. It needs to include support for an intra-Afghan reconciliation process. In 2013, an average of 400 soldiers and 250 civilians were killed each month, and the figures for 2014 will be higher than any year since 2001. The human toll and violence must come down.
The tight schedule set for US military drawdown by President Obama means there is no time to lose. The coming weeks will be decisive. Cautious optimism about the elections may be dashed.The tight schedule set for US military drawdown by President Obama means there is no time to lose. The coming weeks will be decisive. Cautious optimism about the elections may be dashed.
Of course, the new president may fail to seize the moment. But it would be a terrible irony if the Afghans, so tired of 35 years of conflict, do create a political opportunity to turn things round, and the rest the world is too distracted to notice. Of course, the new president may fail to seize the moment. But it would be a terrible irony if the Afghans, so tired of 35 years of conflict, do create a political opportunity to turn things round, and the rest of the world is too distracted to notice.