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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| David Brat's victory over Eric Cantor gives pause to Republican mainstream | David Brat's victory over Eric Cantor gives pause to Republican mainstream |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Open contributions: How much does Cantor's defeat matter? | |
| By the time the dust finally settled in | By the time the dust finally settled in |
| Virginia's primary election earthquake just 7,212 votes separated the House majority leader, Eric Cantor, from his Tea Party nemesis, David | Virginia's primary election earthquake just 7,212 votes separated the House majority leader, Eric Cantor, from his Tea Party nemesis, David |
| Brat. | Brat. |
| Yet the shock upset could have | Yet the shock upset could have |
| immediate consequences for America's 11 million undocumented | immediate consequences for America's 11 million undocumented |
| immigrants and the already slim chances of a national immigration | immigrants and the already slim chances of a national immigration |
| reform bill that might just have brought them out of the legal shadows. | reform bill that might just have brought them out of the legal shadows. |
| The narrow margin of Brat's primary win | The narrow margin of Brat's primary win |
| in the prosperous suburbs of Richmond– where barely 5% of | in the prosperous suburbs of Richmond– where barely 5% of |
| the population is foreign-born – makes it hard to judge precisely how | the population is foreign-born – makes it hard to judge precisely how |
| big a factor his public opposition to immigration reform ultimately | big a factor his public opposition to immigration reform ultimately |
| proved in defeating Cantor. | proved in defeating Cantor. |
| It is also difficult to tell whether | It is also difficult to tell whether |
| the Tea Party's first big decisive win of the 2014 election cycle | the Tea Party's first big decisive win of the 2014 election cycle |
| marks a wider turning point in what had so far proved to be a | marks a wider turning point in what had so far proved to be a |
| disappointing year for a conservative bloc that once threatened a | disappointing year for a conservative bloc that once threatened a |
| string of such primary upsets. | string of such primary upsets. |
| But the imminent removal of Cantor from | But the imminent removal of Cantor from |
| the corridors of power on Capitol Hill will undoubtedly have one more | the corridors of power on Capitol Hill will undoubtedly have one more |
| immediate impact: on the Republican leadership's deliberations over | immediate impact: on the Republican leadership's deliberations over |
| whether to allow a House vote on immigration in the narrow window | whether to allow a House vote on immigration in the narrow window |
| between now and November's midterm elections. | between now and November's midterm elections. |
| Buoyed by the Tea Party's weakness until now and opinion polls showing immigration reform would help win over | Buoyed by the Tea Party's weakness until now and opinion polls showing immigration reform would help win over |
| Latino voters, campaigners had been hoping there was a | Latino voters, campaigners had been hoping there was a |
| chance that the Republican leadership might finally prevail in its effort | chance that the Republican leadership might finally prevail in its effort |
| to modernise the party in the eyes of non-white America. | to modernise the party in the eyes of non-white America. |
| The House speaker, John Boehner, whom Cantor | The House speaker, John Boehner, whom Cantor |
| was tipped to one day succeed, even mocked his Republican colleagues | was tipped to one day succeed, even mocked his Republican colleagues |
| recently for being too scared to take difficult choices over | recently for being too scared to take difficult choices over |
| immigration. | immigration. |
| The White House had also risked | The White House had also risked |
| alienating its own supporters by trying to help Boehner bridge the | alienating its own supporters by trying to help Boehner bridge the |
| remaining gap and continuing with a controversial deportation policy | remaining gap and continuing with a controversial deportation policy |
| while a comprehensive reform bill still looked a possibility. | while a comprehensive reform bill still looked a possibility. |
| Both the opinion pollsters | Both the opinion pollsters |
| and the Washington political strategists were humbled on Tuesday night, however, when the Tea Party once again showed its capacity to upset the carefully stacked apple cart. | and the Washington political strategists were humbled on Tuesday night, however, when the Tea Party once again showed its capacity to upset the carefully stacked apple cart. |
| Just days earlier the Washington Post | Just days earlier the Washington Post |
| carried internal polling from Cantor's team suggesting he would win | carried internal polling from Cantor's team suggesting he would win |
| by 34 percentage points. | by 34 percentage points. |
| With strong support from business | With strong support from business |
| groups – which back Republlican leaders on immigration reform – | groups – which back Republlican leaders on immigration reform – |
| Cantor used his substantial funding advantage to run aggressive | Cantor used his substantial funding advantage to run aggressive |
| attack ads against the relatively unknown Brat. | attack ads against the relatively unknown Brat. |
| And yet the economics professor who | And yet the economics professor who |
| ran on a ticket of standing up to the Washington establishment slayed | ran on a ticket of standing up to the Washington establishment slayed |
| Capitol Hill's Goliath with a single blow, winning by 56% to 44%. | Capitol Hill's Goliath with a single blow, winning by 56% to 44%. |
| The longer term prospects for | The longer term prospects for |
| immigration reform, like so many of the other ramifications of the | immigration reform, like so many of the other ramifications of the |
| Virginia result, will only become clear in the weeks and months | Virginia result, will only become clear in the weeks and months |
| ahead. It is too late in the cycle for Tea | ahead. It is too late in the cycle for Tea |
| Party-supported candidates to sweep aside much more of the Republican | Party-supported candidates to sweep aside much more of the Republican |
| leadership before November. Boehner has already comfortably won his primary. Senate | leadership before November. Boehner has already comfortably won his primary. Senate |
| targets such as minority leader Mitch McConnell and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham have also seen off challenges from the right. | targets such as minority leader Mitch McConnell and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham have also seen off challenges from the right. |
| Yet Cantor is a big enough fish in his | Yet Cantor is a big enough fish in his |
| own right to rekindle fundamental questions about the future | own right to rekindle fundamental questions about the future |
| direction of the party. Will his defeat empower conservative | direction of the party. Will his defeat empower conservative |
| challengers in the 2016 presidential race such as Ted Cruz and Rand | challengers in the 2016 presidential race such as Ted Cruz and Rand |
| Paul? Will Boehner risk standing up to his conservative wing in | Paul? Will Boehner risk standing up to his conservative wing in |
| future or face a challenge to his own position as speaker? | future or face a challenge to his own position as speaker? |
| Will | Will |
| Democrats be able to capitalise on the party's civil war and portray | Democrats be able to capitalise on the party's civil war and portray |
| it as far too rightwing for the national mood – or will they too | it as far too rightwing for the national mood – or will they too |
| become seen as the same Washington establishment that the voters of | become seen as the same Washington establishment that the voters of |
| Virginia's 7th district so dramatically rejected on | Virginia's 7th district so dramatically rejected on |
| Tuesday night? | Tuesday night? |