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| Could Theresa May be a future Tory leader? | |
| (about 14 hours later) | |
| As political theatre, Monday's events in the House of Commons were something of a treat. Michael Gove and Theresa May had been respectively summoned from the Department for Education and the Home Office to face questions about their roles in the so-called Trojan horse affair affecting 21 schools in Birmingham, and the fact that it had sparked a very public fall-out between their two departments, much to David Cameron's annoyance. | As political theatre, Monday's events in the House of Commons were something of a treat. Michael Gove and Theresa May had been respectively summoned from the Department for Education and the Home Office to face questions about their roles in the so-called Trojan horse affair affecting 21 schools in Birmingham, and the fact that it had sparked a very public fall-out between their two departments, much to David Cameron's annoyance. |
| There they were: two people often talked about as future Tory leaders, preparing to bloodlessly pay tribute to each other. A particularly priceless moment arrived when May had finished her time at the dispatch box, and Gove leaned over to pat her on the forearm. As one sketchwriter pointed out: "She did not react, at least visibly." | There they were: two people often talked about as future Tory leaders, preparing to bloodlessly pay tribute to each other. A particularly priceless moment arrived when May had finished her time at the dispatch box, and Gove leaned over to pat her on the forearm. As one sketchwriter pointed out: "She did not react, at least visibly." |
| The controversy still bubbling around the Trojan horse story is about many things: segregated communities in many of our towns and cities, the limits of religious culture in non-faith schools, the fragmentation of the English education system, and more. But it also shines a light on the future of the Conservative party: who might end up leading it after Cameron, and the kind of politics they would pursue. | The controversy still bubbling around the Trojan horse story is about many things: segregated communities in many of our towns and cities, the limits of religious culture in non-faith schools, the fragmentation of the English education system, and more. But it also shines a light on the future of the Conservative party: who might end up leading it after Cameron, and the kind of politics they would pursue. |
| The fact that the prime minister has clearly come down harder on May – who has been forced to drop a close adviser, Fiona Cunningham – than Gove says a lot about power relations in the government's upper echelons. That said, the decision made by someone in May's team to publish on the Home Office website a sharply worded letter she sent to Gove perhaps highlights her own sense of strident confidence. Moreover, the fact that there is a clear difference between the approaches taken by these two senior ministers illuminates the big arguments that will define the Tories' future. | The fact that the prime minister has clearly come down harder on May – who has been forced to drop a close adviser, Fiona Cunningham – than Gove says a lot about power relations in the government's upper echelons. That said, the decision made by someone in May's team to publish on the Home Office website a sharply worded letter she sent to Gove perhaps highlights her own sense of strident confidence. Moreover, the fact that there is a clear difference between the approaches taken by these two senior ministers illuminates the big arguments that will define the Tories' future. |
| It is all fascinating stuff – but the most interesting element is the rise to prominence of the home secretary, and what a singular politician she is: serious, not at all sociable, constantly at arm's length from the male-dominated cliques who run the government – and, much to their apparent irritation, still in with a serious chance of making it to the top. | It is all fascinating stuff – but the most interesting element is the rise to prominence of the home secretary, and what a singular politician she is: serious, not at all sociable, constantly at arm's length from the male-dominated cliques who run the government – and, much to their apparent irritation, still in with a serious chance of making it to the top. |
| When May became home secretary in May 2010, she was the sixth holder of the post in six years. Once Labour's David Blunkett had resigned, thanks to allegations that he had helped fast-track a visa for his ex-lover's nanny, the job had looked more than ever like something both endurable for only a short period of time, and fraught with mishap. May has reaped the benefits of the last government's creation of the Ministry of Justice – meaning, in crude terms, that courts and prisons are someone else's concerns – but even so, the fact that she looks like making it to five years in the job speaks volumes about her capabilities. | When May became home secretary in May 2010, she was the sixth holder of the post in six years. Once Labour's David Blunkett had resigned, thanks to allegations that he had helped fast-track a visa for his ex-lover's nanny, the job had looked more than ever like something both endurable for only a short period of time, and fraught with mishap. May has reaped the benefits of the last government's creation of the Ministry of Justice – meaning, in crude terms, that courts and prisons are someone else's concerns – but even so, the fact that she looks like making it to five years in the job speaks volumes about her capabilities. |
| Within the cabinet, though, she seems to have a hard time. One senior Tory politician sums up her problems crisply: "Every step of the way, she has had to fight to get where she is. And even though she's one of the most successful ministers in government, Theresa's views are accepted begrudgingly." This same source says certain male ministers have been known to indulge in "eye-rolling" and "facial gestures" when May has spoken out in cabinet, and that some of this is reducible to the fact that she sits on the wrong side of two big divides: "She's not a bloke, and she didn't go to Eton." | Within the cabinet, though, she seems to have a hard time. One senior Tory politician sums up her problems crisply: "Every step of the way, she has had to fight to get where she is. And even though she's one of the most successful ministers in government, Theresa's views are accepted begrudgingly." This same source says certain male ministers have been known to indulge in "eye-rolling" and "facial gestures" when May has spoken out in cabinet, and that some of this is reducible to the fact that she sits on the wrong side of two big divides: "She's not a bloke, and she didn't go to Eton." |
| That much is true. May – once famously photographed in one of the Fawcett Society's "This is what a feminist looks like" T-shirts – is a vicar's daughter from Eastbourne, whose schooling saw her pinball between the state and private sectors, before she ended up at a comprehensive school in Wheatley, Oxfordshire. We know relatively little of her personal life, beyond the fact that she is married to a banker, would apparently have liked to have children but did not ("There is something there that you don't have," she once reflected), and has type 1 diabetes. | That much is true. May – once famously photographed in one of the Fawcett Society's "This is what a feminist looks like" T-shirts – is a vicar's daughter from Eastbourne, whose schooling saw her pinball between the state and private sectors, before she ended up at a comprehensive school in Wheatley, Oxfordshire. We know relatively little of her personal life, beyond the fact that she is married to a banker, would apparently have liked to have children but did not ("There is something there that you don't have," she once reflected), and has type 1 diabetes. |
| Whereas an inordinate number of modern politicians went to Oxford and studied philosophy, politics and economics, her time at the same university saw her studying geography. Give or take her interest in somewhat flamboyant shoes, her personal style is light years from the faux-matey "look at my iPod" disposition that many Tory politicians – not least the prime minister – took from Tony Blair. One cannot imagine her playing Fruit Ninja, nor listening to the Killers; she is famously in the habit of working on her governmental red boxes until 2am, and her dependably stony countenance suggests that politics should always be a serious business. | Whereas an inordinate number of modern politicians went to Oxford and studied philosophy, politics and economics, her time at the same university saw her studying geography. Give or take her interest in somewhat flamboyant shoes, her personal style is light years from the faux-matey "look at my iPod" disposition that many Tory politicians – not least the prime minister – took from Tony Blair. One cannot imagine her playing Fruit Ninja, nor listening to the Killers; she is famously in the habit of working on her governmental red boxes until 2am, and her dependably stony countenance suggests that politics should always be a serious business. |
| The verdict of her political ally Cheryl Gillan – who, according to Westminster whispers, was sacked from the cabinet by David Cameron while he drank red wine – underlines the sense of someone very different from most current Conservative high-ups: "She's a tremendous listener, she takes it all in, and I think that is often women's operating style." The flipside of that, perhaps, is a well-known reluctance to perform the social rituals required for political success – as the vociferous Tory activist and Times columnist Tim Montgomerie has put it: "The endless dinners with colleagues and journalists are not for her – she's without many allies and soul mates within politics." | The verdict of her political ally Cheryl Gillan – who, according to Westminster whispers, was sacked from the cabinet by David Cameron while he drank red wine – underlines the sense of someone very different from most current Conservative high-ups: "She's a tremendous listener, she takes it all in, and I think that is often women's operating style." The flipside of that, perhaps, is a well-known reluctance to perform the social rituals required for political success – as the vociferous Tory activist and Times columnist Tim Montgomerie has put it: "The endless dinners with colleagues and journalists are not for her – she's without many allies and soul mates within politics." |
| In the event of a Conservative leadership election, the idea that Gove would be May's chief opponent looks unlikely. A poll of Tory members published last week by Conservative Home put May top, at 35%, with Boris Johnson on 23% and Gove down from 15% to 8% in only a few months. Nonetheless, if you want to understand May's way of operating, and her vision of the Tories' future, the education secretary forms an obvious point of contrast. | In the event of a Conservative leadership election, the idea that Gove would be May's chief opponent looks unlikely. A poll of Tory members published last week by Conservative Home put May top, at 35%, with Boris Johnson on 23% and Gove down from 15% to 8% in only a few months. Nonetheless, if you want to understand May's way of operating, and her vision of the Tories' future, the education secretary forms an obvious point of contrast. |
| Among their other differences, there is a clear distinction between the way the two of them approach questions around extremism, and wider issues about how Westminster politicians should deal with people from religious and ethnic minorities. Gove remains a supporter of the essentially neoconservative ideas summed up in his woefully titled 2006 book Celsius 7/7, and a believer that terrorism and supposed radicalisation are cultural problems as much as security issues – which should be dealt with, to use his rather inflammatory phrase, by "draining the swamp", and putting an emphasis on strident moralism. "Nowhere has moral clarity been more lacking in British state policy over the past 10 to 15 years than in our approach to the Islamist threat," he wrote – something that was rather contradicted by his apparent failure to act on the Trojan horse story for a good four years, but there we are. | Among their other differences, there is a clear distinction between the way the two of them approach questions around extremism, and wider issues about how Westminster politicians should deal with people from religious and ethnic minorities. Gove remains a supporter of the essentially neoconservative ideas summed up in his woefully titled 2006 book Celsius 7/7, and a believer that terrorism and supposed radicalisation are cultural problems as much as security issues – which should be dealt with, to use his rather inflammatory phrase, by "draining the swamp", and putting an emphasis on strident moralism. "Nowhere has moral clarity been more lacking in British state policy over the past 10 to 15 years than in our approach to the Islamist threat," he wrote – something that was rather contradicted by his apparent failure to act on the Trojan horse story for a good four years, but there we are. |
| May's approach is more cautious. As one of her colleagues in government sees it, "she wants to deal with issues of terrorism and extremism, but she doesn't want to at the expense of alienating communities … Michael doesn't care who he alienates, in getting to where he needs to get. And in doing so, he doesn't realise that he's making the problem worse. She wouldn't do that: she knows that in the long run, that would be counter-productive." | May's approach is more cautious. As one of her colleagues in government sees it, "she wants to deal with issues of terrorism and extremism, but she doesn't want to at the expense of alienating communities … Michael doesn't care who he alienates, in getting to where he needs to get. And in doing so, he doesn't realise that he's making the problem worse. She wouldn't do that: she knows that in the long run, that would be counter-productive." |
| Some of this may well be bound up with very important electoral mathematics. The Tories have an ongoing problem with ethnic-minority voters, who form an increasing share of the electorate in a lot of crucial seats. In that sense, zealous neoconservatism may not be the cleverest political option, and May's ideas may yet point the way ahead. | Some of this may well be bound up with very important electoral mathematics. The Tories have an ongoing problem with ethnic-minority voters, who form an increasing share of the electorate in a lot of crucial seats. In that sense, zealous neoconservatism may not be the cleverest political option, and May's ideas may yet point the way ahead. |
| Aside from that issue, exactly what May's big-picture politics are remains unclear, and that lack of definition may yet count against her. One Tory with experience of working closely with her once summed up the great mystery of May's convictions as follows: "I don't think I've ever heard her venture a political opinion. But she gets things done." | Aside from that issue, exactly what May's big-picture politics are remains unclear, and that lack of definition may yet count against her. One Tory with experience of working closely with her once summed up the great mystery of May's convictions as follows: "I don't think I've ever heard her venture a political opinion. But she gets things done." |
| Her admirers, though, credit her with being craftily pragmatic, and having a keen sense of which way the political winds are blowing. Before she entered government, let us not forget, her most vivid contribution to Conservative politics was her observation in 2002 that plenty of people still saw the Tories as "the nasty party" – a savvy acknowledgement of how far the party had to go to avenge its eclipse by New Labour (and arguably still does). | Her admirers, though, credit her with being craftily pragmatic, and having a keen sense of which way the political winds are blowing. Before she entered government, let us not forget, her most vivid contribution to Conservative politics was her observation in 2002 that plenty of people still saw the Tories as "the nasty party" – a savvy acknowledgement of how far the party had to go to avenge its eclipse by New Labour (and arguably still does). |
| On some issues, May strikes hardline postures, and you can hear the applause from the Tory right. In 2013, she was cheered to the rafters for securing the extradition of Abu Qatada to Jordan, a move that had eluded five of her predecessors. The removal of the notorious Abu Hamza to the US had the same effect. The same year saw her doing things that sharply cut across the idea that she is any kind of progressive – not least, piloting the government's immigration bill, full of measures that seemed to have more to do with throwing red meat to the Tory right than anything enlightened, or even sensible. | On some issues, May strikes hardline postures, and you can hear the applause from the Tory right. In 2013, she was cheered to the rafters for securing the extradition of Abu Qatada to Jordan, a move that had eluded five of her predecessors. The removal of the notorious Abu Hamza to the US had the same effect. The same year saw her doing things that sharply cut across the idea that she is any kind of progressive – not least, piloting the government's immigration bill, full of measures that seemed to have more to do with throwing red meat to the Tory right than anything enlightened, or even sensible. |
| Indeed, for someone once so worried about the Conservatives' reputation for cruelty and prejudice, she has occasionally suggested that she is now only too happy to see such qualities return. Under May's leadership, the Home Office has embraced the idea of creating a "hostile environment" for unauthorised migrants; and it was on her watch that those infamous Home Office vans cruised the streets of six London boroughs – a move even Nigel Farage said was "nasty", and that the Home Office quickly abandoned. | Indeed, for someone once so worried about the Conservatives' reputation for cruelty and prejudice, she has occasionally suggested that she is now only too happy to see such qualities return. Under May's leadership, the Home Office has embraced the idea of creating a "hostile environment" for unauthorised migrants; and it was on her watch that those infamous Home Office vans cruised the streets of six London boroughs – a move even Nigel Farage said was "nasty", and that the Home Office quickly abandoned. |
| At the same time, however, she has underlined what a complex politician she is by pursuing the cause that has pretty much defined her time as home secretary: her drive to reform the police, and confront what she sees as corrupt practices and ingrained conservatism. Her response to revelations about the Metropolitan police spying on the family of Stephen Lawrence was authoritative and principled. Of late, she has launched a package of measures aimed at tackling age-old outrage about the use of stop-and-search powers. | At the same time, however, she has underlined what a complex politician she is by pursuing the cause that has pretty much defined her time as home secretary: her drive to reform the police, and confront what she sees as corrupt practices and ingrained conservatism. Her response to revelations about the Metropolitan police spying on the family of Stephen Lawrence was authoritative and principled. Of late, she has launched a package of measures aimed at tackling age-old outrage about the use of stop-and-search powers. |
| The government's introduction of elected police and crime commissioners was an obvious dud, but the moment that May decisively became a leadership contender came when she addressed the annual conference of the Police Federation – in effect, the police trade union – in May this year. In a speech seen as revenge for the so-called Plebgate scandal, she accused some officers of "contempt for the public", dismissed the idea that problems in the police were down to a "few bad apples", and announced the end of public funding for the federation; a move more symbolic than anything else, but indicative of the chastising message she wanted to send out. The speech was one of those rare things: an oratorial tour de force received in complete silence. | The government's introduction of elected police and crime commissioners was an obvious dud, but the moment that May decisively became a leadership contender came when she addressed the annual conference of the Police Federation – in effect, the police trade union – in May this year. In a speech seen as revenge for the so-called Plebgate scandal, she accused some officers of "contempt for the public", dismissed the idea that problems in the police were down to a "few bad apples", and announced the end of public funding for the federation; a move more symbolic than anything else, but indicative of the chastising message she wanted to send out. The speech was one of those rare things: an oratorial tour de force received in complete silence. |
| If and when she runs for the Tory leadership, her crusading approach to the police will presumably be at the heart of her campaign – but any suggestion that the Conservatives' new direction was all her own work will have to be taken with a large pinch of salt. This is pointed out by Tim Brain, a former chief constable of Gloucestershire, who has just published a measured critique of the Tories' police reforms titled A Future For Policing In England and Wales. For anyone curious about the possible downside of May's reforms and where the police might be headed, this is an enlightening read indeed. | If and when she runs for the Tory leadership, her crusading approach to the police will presumably be at the heart of her campaign – but any suggestion that the Conservatives' new direction was all her own work will have to be taken with a large pinch of salt. This is pointed out by Tim Brain, a former chief constable of Gloucestershire, who has just published a measured critique of the Tories' police reforms titled A Future For Policing In England and Wales. For anyone curious about the possible downside of May's reforms and where the police might be headed, this is an enlightening read indeed. |
| The Conservatives' quest to fundamentally reform the police, he points out, was first set out by David Cameron in January 2006, and then developed by the former Tory minister Nick Herbert. But in his own way, he gives May credit: "Politically, she's a very successful home secretary. She comes across as rather cold and distant – and that's quite a useful characteristic for a home secretary to have. You're not going to be troubled by people saying: 'This is going to adversely affect morale.' I don't think she's that worried about morale." | The Conservatives' quest to fundamentally reform the police, he points out, was first set out by David Cameron in January 2006, and then developed by the former Tory minister Nick Herbert. But in his own way, he gives May credit: "Politically, she's a very successful home secretary. She comes across as rather cold and distant – and that's quite a useful characteristic for a home secretary to have. You're not going to be troubled by people saying: 'This is going to adversely affect morale.' I don't think she's that worried about morale." |
| He also distinguishes between political success and what might be the long-term results of what May has done, not least the ongoing cuts in police numbers. If she stands for the Tory leadership, he says, "people will remember the glow of a hard home secretary who beat the cops down. That's what the inner core of her party will think of. They won't be interested in whether crime is up or down. That won't be on their radar." | He also distinguishes between political success and what might be the long-term results of what May has done, not least the ongoing cuts in police numbers. If she stands for the Tory leadership, he says, "people will remember the glow of a hard home secretary who beat the cops down. That's what the inner core of her party will think of. They won't be interested in whether crime is up or down. That won't be on their radar." |
| So, what next? If the deeply uncertain result of the next election spells trouble for David Cameron, might the Tories call time on the rule of the Etonians and elect their second woman leader? | So, what next? If the deeply uncertain result of the next election spells trouble for David Cameron, might the Tories call time on the rule of the Etonians and elect their second woman leader? |
| As things stand, May has one key problem. In keeping with her apparent lack of clubbability, her supporters – "Mayniacs", some people call them – do not seem to form any clearly identifiable faction. Her admirers in the cabinet are said to include William Hague and Eric Pickles; lower down the hierarchy, she is supported by such former ministers as Cheryl Gillan and Caroline Spelman, along with the high-profile backbencher Dominic Raab and the children's minister, Edward Timpson. Taken together, their names do not quite suggest serious influence and irresistible momentum – if May is going to ever get the top job, she will have to win a few more influential friends. | As things stand, May has one key problem. In keeping with her apparent lack of clubbability, her supporters – "Mayniacs", some people call them – do not seem to form any clearly identifiable faction. Her admirers in the cabinet are said to include William Hague and Eric Pickles; lower down the hierarchy, she is supported by such former ministers as Cheryl Gillan and Caroline Spelman, along with the high-profile backbencher Dominic Raab and the children's minister, Edward Timpson. Taken together, their names do not quite suggest serious influence and irresistible momentum – if May is going to ever get the top job, she will have to win a few more influential friends. |
| That said, some Tories obviously adore her. I recently asked one high-ranking Conservative to rate her leadership chances on a scale of one to 10. "These things are so hard to judge," they said. "It depends who she's up against and where we are in the political cycle." | That said, some Tories obviously adore her. I recently asked one high-ranking Conservative to rate her leadership chances on a scale of one to 10. "These things are so hard to judge," they said. "It depends who she's up against and where we are in the political cycle." |
| There was a pause. "How about how much I would like her to be leader?" | There was a pause. "How about how much I would like her to be leader?" |
| "OK then," I said. | "OK then," I said. |
| The voice at the other end of the phone suddenly brightened. "Oh, nine." | The voice at the other end of the phone suddenly brightened. "Oh, nine." |