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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| Leaders await Newark by-election verdict | Leaders await Newark by-election verdict |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| The UK's political leaders are anxiously awaiting the verdict of voters in the Newark by-election. | The UK's political leaders are anxiously awaiting the verdict of voters in the Newark by-election. |
| Opinion polls suggest the Conservatives will retain the seat but with a much reduced majority. | |
| But UKIP - on a high after topping the European elections - are hoping to cause a major upset by winning their first Westminster seat. | But UKIP - on a high after topping the European elections - are hoping to cause a major upset by winning their first Westminster seat. |
| Ex-Tory MP Patrick Mercer, who quit over a cash-for-questions scandal, won by 16,152 votes in the 2010 election. | Ex-Tory MP Patrick Mercer, who quit over a cash-for-questions scandal, won by 16,152 votes in the 2010 election. |
| Turnout for the by-election was 52.8%, the returning officer announced. | |
| Safe seat | Safe seat |
| If UKIP's Roger Helmer, a former Tory MEP recently re-elected to the European Parliament, wins, it will represent a historic breakthrough for the anti-EU party. | If UKIP's Roger Helmer, a former Tory MEP recently re-elected to the European Parliament, wins, it will represent a historic breakthrough for the anti-EU party. |
| Leader Nigel Farage - who turned down a chance to stand in the by-election himself because he had no connection with area, leading critics to accuse him of "bottling it" - would use it as a platform for next year's general election. Mr Farage has said he wants UKIP to win enough MPs to hold the balance of power. | Leader Nigel Farage - who turned down a chance to stand in the by-election himself because he had no connection with area, leading critics to accuse him of "bottling it" - would use it as a platform for next year's general election. Mr Farage has said he wants UKIP to win enough MPs to hold the balance of power. |
| UKIP finished a distant fifth in Newark in the 2010 general election- but the party has seen a surge in support since then and in the recent European poll narrowly beat the Conservatives into second place in some parts of the Nottinghamshire constituency. | UKIP finished a distant fifth in Newark in the 2010 general election- but the party has seen a surge in support since then and in the recent European poll narrowly beat the Conservatives into second place in some parts of the Nottinghamshire constituency. |
| David Cameron threw everything at retaining what is, in theory, a relatively safe seat, flooding the market town with dozens of Conservative ministers and MPs during the course of the short campaign. | David Cameron threw everything at retaining what is, in theory, a relatively safe seat, flooding the market town with dozens of Conservative ministers and MPs during the course of the short campaign. |
| Mr Cameron visited Newark four times - a sign of how keen he is to see off the UKIP threat and win what would be a morale-boosting victory for his party with less than a year to go before the next general election. | Mr Cameron visited Newark four times - a sign of how keen he is to see off the UKIP threat and win what would be a morale-boosting victory for his party with less than a year to go before the next general election. |
| Close-run thing | Close-run thing |
| If the Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, a managing director at auction house Christies, does top the poll, it will be the first time the Conservatives have won a by-election when in power in 25 years. Foreign Secretary William Hague was the most recent Tory MP to achieve this feat, in Richmond, North Yorkshire, in 1989. | If the Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, a managing director at auction house Christies, does top the poll, it will be the first time the Conservatives have won a by-election when in power in 25 years. Foreign Secretary William Hague was the most recent Tory MP to achieve this feat, in Richmond, North Yorkshire, in 1989. |
| Newark had a Labour MP in the late 1990s and the party came second in the constituency in the 2010 general election. | Newark had a Labour MP in the late 1990s and the party came second in the constituency in the 2010 general election. |
| But despite visits from senior ministers, including party leader Ed Miliband, to support the party's candidate, Michael Payne, a county councillor, polls suggest it is heading for third place, although it could be a close-run thing. | But despite visits from senior ministers, including party leader Ed Miliband, to support the party's candidate, Michael Payne, a county councillor, polls suggest it is heading for third place, although it could be a close-run thing. |
| A Sun/Survation poll in the constituency, a week before polling day, put Labour third, on 27%, behind UKIP on 28% and the Conservatives on 36%. | A Sun/Survation poll in the constituency, a week before polling day, put Labour third, on 27%, behind UKIP on 28% and the Conservatives on 36%. |
| Bus Pass Elvis Party | Bus Pass Elvis Party |
| Coming second to the Conservatives and seeing off UKIP would be presented by Labour ministers as a good night at the polls, although some in the party believe Ed Miliband should be winning by-elections this close to a general election. | Coming second to the Conservatives and seeing off UKIP would be presented by Labour ministers as a good night at the polls, although some in the party believe Ed Miliband should be winning by-elections this close to a general election. |
| The Lib Dems, on 5% in the Survation poll, may struggle to keep their deposit. | The Lib Dems, on 5% in the Survation poll, may struggle to keep their deposit. |
| Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg will be hoping at least avoid the humiliation of his candidate David Watts finishing behind David Bishop of the Bus Pass Elvis party. | Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg will be hoping at least avoid the humiliation of his candidate David Watts finishing behind David Bishop of the Bus Pass Elvis party. |
| In March, Mr Bishop finished ahead of the Lib Dems in a city council by-election in the Clifton area of Nottingham. | In March, Mr Bishop finished ahead of the Lib Dems in a city council by-election in the Clifton area of Nottingham. |
| Patrick Mercer, who represented the Nottinghamshire constituency since 2001, surprised Westminster in April by announcing he was standing down after he was suspended from the Commons for six months for allegedly asking questions in Parliament in return for money. | Patrick Mercer, who represented the Nottinghamshire constituency since 2001, surprised Westminster in April by announcing he was standing down after he was suspended from the Commons for six months for allegedly asking questions in Parliament in return for money. |
| Mr Mercer was filmed by undercover reporters from the BBC's Panorama last year apparently agreeing to set up a parliamentary group to push for Fiji to return to the Commonwealth. | Mr Mercer was filmed by undercover reporters from the BBC's Panorama last year apparently agreeing to set up a parliamentary group to push for Fiji to return to the Commonwealth. |
| The MP had already said he would not contest the general election next year and had been serving as an independent since May 2013. | The MP had already said he would not contest the general election next year and had been serving as an independent since May 2013. |