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Newark shows how Labour can take the sting out of Ukip Newark shows how the sting could be taken out of Ukip
(about 2 hours later)
"This is a quintessentially English byelection," the Tory MP Ben Wallace declares, as a parade of Ukip eccentrics – one dressed as John Bull – and press-ganged parliamentarians troop past the market square at the heart of Newark in Nottinghamshire. "It's a carnival, it's like an episode of Blackadder". But, Wallace adds, for Nigel Farage's rightwing nationalists – hoping to capitalise on the Euro election results by winning their first parliamentary seat – the "promise of the breakthrough is more important than the breakthrough itself"."This is a quintessentially English byelection," the Tory MP Ben Wallace declares, as a parade of Ukip eccentrics – one dressed as John Bull – and press-ganged parliamentarians troop past the market square at the heart of Newark in Nottinghamshire. "It's a carnival, it's like an episode of Blackadder". But, Wallace adds, for Nigel Farage's rightwing nationalists – hoping to capitalise on the Euro election results by winning their first parliamentary seat – the "promise of the breakthrough is more important than the breakthrough itself".
The Tories are certainly taking no chances, as an army of ministers, MPs and activists troop through the town, their multimillionaire Christie's director candidate wisely hidden from view. This should be a safe Conservative seat and, even if there's no Ukip breakthrough, the fact that Ukip has come from nowhere to challenge for a Tory middle England crown is a measure of the threat to David Cameron and the Westminster establishment.The Tories are certainly taking no chances, as an army of ministers, MPs and activists troop through the town, their multimillionaire Christie's director candidate wisely hidden from view. This should be a safe Conservative seat and, even if there's no Ukip breakthrough, the fact that Ukip has come from nowhere to challenge for a Tory middle England crown is a measure of the threat to David Cameron and the Westminster establishment.
For the duration of the campaign, Ukip's candidate, former Tory MEP Roger Helmer, is keeping homophobic and racist outbursts under wraps. With its flat tax and privatisation enthusiasms parked for now, Ukip currently has only two policies: withdrawal from Europe and a halt to immigration.For the duration of the campaign, Ukip's candidate, former Tory MEP Roger Helmer, is keeping homophobic and racist outbursts under wraps. With its flat tax and privatisation enthusiasms parked for now, Ukip currently has only two policies: withdrawal from Europe and a halt to immigration.
But on housing association estates in the town, the insecurity, falling living standards, housing shortage, joblessness and anger that have fed the Ukip backlash is clear enough. One woman, Kay, says neither she nor her stepson is able to find work. But she's now stumping up £24 a week in bedroom tax on the house she lives in with her three children. She hasn't been able to pay for gas for a year.But on housing association estates in the town, the insecurity, falling living standards, housing shortage, joblessness and anger that have fed the Ukip backlash is clear enough. One woman, Kay, says neither she nor her stepson is able to find work. But she's now stumping up £24 a week in bedroom tax on the house she lives in with her three children. She hasn't been able to pay for gas for a year.
"It was either gas or eating, one of them had to go," she says. When Labour's candidate Michael Payne tells her the party has promised to abolish the bedroom tax, Kay looks sceptical. For those at the bottom end of the labour market, jobs in Newark are anyway low-paid and insecure, and employers make full use of Britain's "flexible" employment laws to suck value out of local and migrant workers alike."It was either gas or eating, one of them had to go," she says. When Labour's candidate Michael Payne tells her the party has promised to abolish the bedroom tax, Kay looks sceptical. For those at the bottom end of the labour market, jobs in Newark are anyway low-paid and insecure, and employers make full use of Britain's "flexible" employment laws to suck value out of local and migrant workers alike.
The biggest private sector employer in the town is a cake manufacturer, Laurens Patisseries, now renamed Bakkavor Desserts after its Icelandic owners. The factory employs 1,700 workers, the majority eastern European migrants and nearly half from Poland.The biggest private sector employer in the town is a cake manufacturer, Laurens Patisseries, now renamed Bakkavor Desserts after its Icelandic owners. The factory employs 1,700 workers, the majority eastern European migrants and nearly half from Poland.
The company makes extensive use of the EU's "Swedish derogation", which allows employers to pay agency staff – often recruited abroad – far less than permanent employees. Newark's second-biggest private employer is the Dixons-owned Knowhow electrical goods warehouse, where the prime minister held court on Monday. It also relies on low-paid eastern European migrant and agency workers. Add to that Newark hospital's emergency department, weighed down with private finance under New Labour and closed by the coalition, and the town encapsulates the deregulation and privatisation favoured by the elite which brought Britain and the rest of Europe to economic meltdown six years ago.The company makes extensive use of the EU's "Swedish derogation", which allows employers to pay agency staff – often recruited abroad – far less than permanent employees. Newark's second-biggest private employer is the Dixons-owned Knowhow electrical goods warehouse, where the prime minister held court on Monday. It also relies on low-paid eastern European migrant and agency workers. Add to that Newark hospital's emergency department, weighed down with private finance under New Labour and closed by the coalition, and the town encapsulates the deregulation and privatisation favoured by the elite which brought Britain and the rest of Europe to economic meltdown six years ago.
It's revulsion against that record – along with the impact of immigration on deregulated workplaces, under-invested housing and squeezed public services – that turned Ukip from an absurdity into a toxic threat. Its electoral performance last month may not have been an earthquake, with 9% of eligible voters in the Euro elections and a lower share of the local vote than last year. But its potential to draw the political mainstream on to its agenda is real and dangerous.It's revulsion against that record – along with the impact of immigration on deregulated workplaces, under-invested housing and squeezed public services – that turned Ukip from an absurdity into a toxic threat. Its electoral performance last month may not have been an earthquake, with 9% of eligible voters in the Euro elections and a lower share of the local vote than last year. But its potential to draw the political mainstream on to its agenda is real and dangerous.
In the European context, the Ukip phenomenon becomes clearer. Rightwing anti-migrant populists made the running in France, Denmark and Austria, but the radical left also performed strongly in Greece, Spain and the Netherlands. The common factor in the upheaval was not nativism and racism, but a rejection of the disastrous consequences of austerity, a failed elite and a broken economic model.In the European context, the Ukip phenomenon becomes clearer. Rightwing anti-migrant populists made the running in France, Denmark and Austria, but the radical left also performed strongly in Greece, Spain and the Netherlands. The common factor in the upheaval was not nativism and racism, but a rejection of the disastrous consequences of austerity, a failed elite and a broken economic model.
Without a viable alternative based on class rather than nationality – or where left-of-centre parties have been compromised by their embrace of neoliberalism – rightwing populists like Ukip have had an open field. But whatever happens in Newark, Farage's army is now at a fateful crossroads.Without a viable alternative based on class rather than nationality – or where left-of-centre parties have been compromised by their embrace of neoliberalism – rightwing populists like Ukip have had an open field. But whatever happens in Newark, Farage's army is now at a fateful crossroads.
Unlike the French National Front, which combines racism and Islamophobia with calls for economic intervention, Ukip's leaders are ultra-Thatcherite free marketeers. By ditching his 2010 manifesto in favour of the two policies, Farage has managed to attract support from both Tory and Labour heartlands.Unlike the French National Front, which combines racism and Islamophobia with calls for economic intervention, Ukip's leaders are ultra-Thatcherite free marketeers. By ditching his 2010 manifesto in favour of the two policies, Farage has managed to attract support from both Tory and Labour heartlands.
But now he's talking about tax cuts for the rich and a grammar school in every town, with the threat of wholesale NHS privatisation to come – while planning an autumn appeal to working-class voters in Ed Miliband's Doncaster constituency – the two faces of Ukip will become much harder to hide.But now he's talking about tax cuts for the rich and a grammar school in every town, with the threat of wholesale NHS privatisation to come – while planning an autumn appeal to working-class voters in Ed Miliband's Doncaster constituency – the two faces of Ukip will become much harder to hide.
Whenever the Ukip bubble deflates, the impact on the rest of the political system will continue to be felt. Cameron will use Ukip to demand still more deregulation and corporate privilege from the EU under the banner of subsidiarity, while further squeezing support for migrants, which will only open them to greater exploitation.Whenever the Ukip bubble deflates, the impact on the rest of the political system will continue to be felt. Cameron will use Ukip to demand still more deregulation and corporate privilege from the EU under the banner of subsidiarity, while further squeezing support for migrants, which will only open them to greater exploitation.
Labour, meanwhile, risks being drawn into the slipstream of that unwinnable Dutch auction. Instead, it's only by putting the case front and centre for a complete break with the policies that got us here – through public investment, a crash housebuilding programme, workplace protection, rebuilding public services and a living wage – that the poison can be taken out of migration. If Labour doesn't do it, the Tories will find their own way to draw Ukip's sting.Labour, meanwhile, risks being drawn into the slipstream of that unwinnable Dutch auction. Instead, it's only by putting the case front and centre for a complete break with the policies that got us here – through public investment, a crash housebuilding programme, workplace protection, rebuilding public services and a living wage – that the poison can be taken out of migration. If Labour doesn't do it, the Tories will find their own way to draw Ukip's sting.
Twitter: @SeumasMilneTwitter: @SeumasMilne