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The maths of sport The maths of sport
(21 minutes later)
How your team can reach Euro 2008 By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine The England football team's hopes of reaching Euro 2008 lie in a complicated permutation of results over the next few days. For while sport prides itself on noble virtues, it's actually all about arithmetic.How your team can reach Euro 2008 By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine The England football team's hopes of reaching Euro 2008 lie in a complicated permutation of results over the next few days. For while sport prides itself on noble virtues, it's actually all about arithmetic.
Among the greatest attractions of sport are its simplicity and immediacy; a game's beauty and a player's artistry.Among the greatest attractions of sport are its simplicity and immediacy; a game's beauty and a player's artistry.
The action that unfolds before the eyes is all that matters, and the twists and turns of play are met with cheers or disappointment from the spectators.The action that unfolds before the eyes is all that matters, and the twists and turns of play are met with cheers or disappointment from the spectators.
Such spontaneity governs knock-out matches, where the only sum that matters is that one score is greater than the other.Such spontaneity governs knock-out matches, where the only sum that matters is that one score is greater than the other.
But league tables have dealt pleyers and fans a more complicated hand, one governed by more advanced mathematics that arguably dilute the notion of competition. But league tables have dealt players and fans a more complicated hand, one governed by more advanced mathematics that arguably dilute the notion of competition.
ENGLAND'S FATE Russia beat Israel and Andorra: England need Croatia to lose to Macedonia and then themselves beat Croatia by three goals (2-0 would also suffice but not 3-1)Russia draw with Israel: England must beat Croatia, assuming Russia beat AndorraRussia lose to Israel: England need to draw against Croatia The lowdown on your team This is the position some of the home nations find themselves in this weekend as they hope to qualify for football's Euro 2008. The video above, featuring commentary from BBC Five Live's Alistair Bruce-Ball, explains what each team needs to do.ENGLAND'S FATE Russia beat Israel and Andorra: England need Croatia to lose to Macedonia and then themselves beat Croatia by three goals (2-0 would also suffice but not 3-1)Russia draw with Israel: England must beat Croatia, assuming Russia beat AndorraRussia lose to Israel: England need to draw against Croatia The lowdown on your team This is the position some of the home nations find themselves in this weekend as they hope to qualify for football's Euro 2008. The video above, featuring commentary from BBC Five Live's Alistair Bruce-Ball, explains what each team needs to do.
England's qualification is the hardest to work out. While Owen and Gerard won't be donning the three lions badge until next Wednesday, their fate could be in the hands of Russia or Croatia who play on Saturday. Northern Ireland's fortunes also depend on complicated arithmetic.England's qualification is the hardest to work out. While Owen and Gerard won't be donning the three lions badge until next Wednesday, their fate could be in the hands of Russia or Croatia who play on Saturday. Northern Ireland's fortunes also depend on complicated arithmetic.
It's a familiar scenario to club football supporters who are intimate with the drama of the last day of the season, when promotion and relegation battles are won and lost, often by events elsewhere. It makes for the rather surreal sight of half a football ground erupting in joy for reasons that have nothing to do with what is happening on the pitch.It's a familiar scenario to club football supporters who are intimate with the drama of the last day of the season, when promotion and relegation battles are won and lost, often by events elsewhere. It makes for the rather surreal sight of half a football ground erupting in joy for reasons that have nothing to do with what is happening on the pitch.
Hard sumsHard sums
But, salaries aside, you're average footballer doesn't tend to boast a head for figures. In 2004, Tony Adams was manager of Wycombe Wanderers and after an Easter Monday defeat he mistakenly thought his team could still stay up.But, salaries aside, you're average footballer doesn't tend to boast a head for figures. In 2004, Tony Adams was manager of Wycombe Wanderers and after an Easter Monday defeat he mistakenly thought his team could still stay up.
"It's not mathematically over, so we'll keep going," he said. Someone else informed him that his team was actually relegated."It's not mathematically over, so we'll keep going," he said. Someone else informed him that his team was actually relegated.
The maths went like this:The maths went like this:
  • If Wanderers won their remaining games, they would get 46 points, the same as Oldham and Brentford
  • But what Adams hadn't taken into account was that both those sides had to play other teams in the bottom four
  • So defeats for Oldham and Brentford would mean Chesterfield and Grimsby could get to 47 points
  • If Wanderers won their remaining games, they would get 46 points, the same as Oldham and Brentford
  • But what Adams hadn't taken into account was that both those sides had to play other teams in the bottom four
  • So defeats for Oldham and Brentford would mean Chesterfield and Grimsby could get to 47 points
Teresa Slevin, who has supported Wycombe for 52 years, says fans had "worked it all out a couple of weeks before because there wasn't any way that we could do it. Even level on points we didn't have a good goal-difference.Teresa Slevin, who has supported Wycombe for 52 years, says fans had "worked it all out a couple of weeks before because there wasn't any way that we could do it. Even level on points we didn't have a good goal-difference.
If someone said to me they lived at number 16, I'd think 'double 8' Phil ' The Power' Taylor "I think he was clutching at straws. I don't think he had really worked it out."If someone said to me they lived at number 16, I'd think 'double 8' Phil ' The Power' Taylor "I think he was clutching at straws. I don't think he had really worked it out."
In the 1982 World Cup, West Germany and Austria got their sums right when they shamefully conspired to a 1-0 win containing 80 minutes of no-risk football after the Germans scored. The result sent both teams through the groups stages at the expense of Algeria.In the 1982 World Cup, West Germany and Austria got their sums right when they shamefully conspired to a 1-0 win containing 80 minutes of no-risk football after the Germans scored. The result sent both teams through the groups stages at the expense of Algeria.
But however arcane the maths of football, cricket is even tougher. If rain curtails play in one-day cricket, there is a notoriously complex way called Duckworth-Lewis of calculating the target score for the team batting second, taking into account the team's batting strength.But however arcane the maths of football, cricket is even tougher. If rain curtails play in one-day cricket, there is a notoriously complex way called Duckworth-Lewis of calculating the target score for the team batting second, taking into account the team's batting strength.
In the 2003 cricket World Cup, South Africa failed to progress to the second round of the tournament on home soil after they miscalculated the score they needed to secure their passage, but this was because of their own failings rather than the formula being wrong.In the 2003 cricket World Cup, South Africa failed to progress to the second round of the tournament on home soil after they miscalculated the score they needed to secure their passage, but this was because of their own failings rather than the formula being wrong.
In snooker and darts, however, players are constantly turning numbers over in their heads as they adjust strategies.In snooker and darts, however, players are constantly turning numbers over in their heads as they adjust strategies.
16 = double 816 = double 8
Phil "The Power" Taylor, 11 times world darts champion, knows many a great thrower who has been undone by having poor maths.Phil "The Power" Taylor, 11 times world darts champion, knows many a great thrower who has been undone by having poor maths.
"When you're doing it over and over again, it just develops. If you asked me what was five times 17, I'd think 'Oh, Crikey', but if I think of it as double 17 and treble 17 then it's easy."When you're doing it over and over again, it just develops. If you asked me what was five times 17, I'd think 'Oh, Crikey', but if I think of it as double 17 and treble 17 then it's easy.
"If someone said to me they lived at number 16, I'd think 'double 8'."If someone said to me they lived at number 16, I'd think 'double 8'.
"I say to people at schools, if the kids are struggling with mathematics, get them a dartboard and make it fun.""I say to people at schools, if the kids are struggling with mathematics, get them a dartboard and make it fun."
OFFICIALS GET IT WRONG TOO A race official in Osaka at the world athletics championships miscalculated the number of laps of the street circuit a competitor had completed at the end of the 50km walkThe walker entered the stadium for the end of the race, crossed the line and collapsed exhaustedHe thought he had come ninth but was disqualified for coming in one lap early Veteran golf commentator Peter Aliss will always be reminded that he did not realise Phil Mickelson had won the US Masters with his final putt, thinking it was going to a play-off.OFFICIALS GET IT WRONG TOO A race official in Osaka at the world athletics championships miscalculated the number of laps of the street circuit a competitor had completed at the end of the 50km walkThe walker entered the stadium for the end of the race, crossed the line and collapsed exhaustedHe thought he had come ninth but was disqualified for coming in one lap early Veteran golf commentator Peter Aliss will always be reminded that he did not realise Phil Mickelson had won the US Masters with his final putt, thinking it was going to a play-off.
But one of the most famous miscalculations featured the late Alan Ball when managing Manchester City.But one of the most famous miscalculations featured the late Alan Ball when managing Manchester City.
In May 1996, on the final day of the season, City needed to do better than Southampton and Coventry to survive.In May 1996, on the final day of the season, City needed to do better than Southampton and Coventry to survive.
Ball mistakenly thought Coventry, who were playing elsewhere, were losing and instructed his players to play out time.Ball mistakenly thought Coventry, who were playing elsewhere, were losing and instructed his players to play out time.
As Steve Lomas kept the ball near the corner flag, Man City substitute Niall Quinn ran on to the pitch to tell his team mates a draw was not enough. It was too late, they failed to win and went down.As Steve Lomas kept the ball near the corner flag, Man City substitute Niall Quinn ran on to the pitch to tell his team mates a draw was not enough. It was too late, they failed to win and went down.
It seems there's only one way to avoid getting the sums wrong. Play every match to win.It seems there's only one way to avoid getting the sums wrong. Play every match to win.
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