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Tea Party scores biggest win of 2014 as Mississippi primary heads to runoff | |
(about 11 hours later) | |
The battle for control of the Republican party appeared far from over on Wednesday after a defeat for incumbent Mississippi senator Thad Cochran and a victory for an Iowa candidate who made her name with an ad about castrating hogs capped the most action-packed clutch of primary elections yet. | |
Despite a series of recent losses in North Carolina, Georgia and Kentucky, the Tea Party wing of the party scored its biggest win of the 2014 campaign season in a nail-bitingly close overnight race between establishment favourite Cochran and his more conservative opponent Chris McDaniel. | |
With just a handful of precincts left to report by late Wednesday morning, McDaniel was ahead of Cochran by 2,100 votes, or 49.6% to 48.9%, although the narrowness of McDaniel's apparent win all but guarantees the two will meet again on June 24 in a run-off election to secure the party's nomination for the US Senate race. | |
In Iowa, state senator Joni Ernst, who's appealed to both sides of her party, scoring endorsements from Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney while becoming a sensation in political circles for an ad in which she declared, “I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm, so when I get to Washington, I'll know how to cut pork,” cleared a crowded Republican primary field to become the party's chosen candidate to take on Democrat Bruce Braley in what's likely to be a close race that could determine control of the Senate. | |
Though they are still far to the right by historic standards, the triumph of establishment-backed candidates over the Tea Party in many states may make it much harder for Democrats to hold onto the Senate in an election cycle that has an unusual number of conservative-leaning states up for grabs. | |
In contrast, the fact that McDaniel will likely win the run-off in Mississippi – such votes usually favor the challenger, whose supporters are more likely to be motivated to turn out – could put that deeply-red state in play for Democrats, who are running a right-wing campaign with pro-NRA, anti-abortion candidate Travis Childers. | |
For this reason it became one of the most closely watched and bizarre Republican primaries of 2014. It is the first time Cochran, a six-term incumbent, has been so seriously challenged from within his own party since he was first elected in 1978. | |
Just two weeks ago McDaniel, a 41-year-old state senator with a deeply conservative record, was considered doomed after four of his supporters were arrested over a plot to smear Cochran by photographing his bedridden wife in the nursing home where she lives and posting the images on the internet. | |
McDaniel spent much of the last fortnight distancing himself from the incident, while Cochran's campaign seized on the arrests, airing a television commercial urging voters to “Rise up and say ‘no’ to dirty politics”. | |
As it became clear Tuesday's vote had not delivered a clear winner, there was a stark difference in mood at the rival campaign parties. Cochran chose not to give a speech. Instead, at around 11.30pm, his friend, the congressman Greg Harper, briefly informed supporters: “It's looking like a runoff.” | |
In contrast, shortly before midnight McDaniel came out saluting supporters. He conceded the final vote count would probably not be confirmed until later on Wednesday but insisted the result was nonetheless “historic” for Mississippi. | |
“We are here tonight leading a 42-year incumbent,” he told a cheering crowd. “Whether it is tomorrow, or whether it is three weeks from now, we will stand victorious in this race.” | |
Ironically it was a virtually unknown third candidate named Thomas Carey who made the difference. He was trounced, garnering fewer than 6,000 votes – just 1.6% of the total – but that was sufficient to deny both his opponents victory. | |
The Mississippi election was the most high-profile of the primaries taking place in eight states on Tuesday and had been expected to mark the culmination of a disappointing primary season for the Tea Party. | |
Over the last month Tea Party-backed candidates have failed in a string of Senate primaries, losing a high-profile battle in North Carolina, followed by decisive defeats in both Kentucky and Georgia. | Over the last month Tea Party-backed candidates have failed in a string of Senate primaries, losing a high-profile battle in North Carolina, followed by decisive defeats in both Kentucky and Georgia. |
Although one Tea Party-backed Senate candidate, Ben Sasse, won in Nebraska, and dozens of so-called “establishment” candidates were forced to adopt deeply conservative positions to run viable campaigns, the Republican leadership felt it was starting to quell the rightwing revolt. | |
The battle between Cochran and McDaniel, perhaps more than any other primary in 2014, became a proxy war for conservative factions fighting for influence inside the GOP. The race was repeatedly described as the Tea Party’s “last stand”. | |
Outside groups spent $8m on the campaign, almost double what the candidates’ campaigns spent on the election. McDaniel in particular benefited from $4.8m spent invested by mostly Tea Party-aligned groups, supporting his candidacy or trashing Cochran's campaign. | |
Now the spending spree – from both sides – is likely to resume during three more weeks of frenzied campaigning leading up to the run-off. | |
Elsewhere in the US, Neel Kashkari pulled out a comfortable win in the race to be the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in California, giving the party a better chance in that fight, though its campaign to defeat incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown will still be tough, if not impossible. | |