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| Russia and 2 Neighbors Form Economic Union That Has a Ukraine-Size Hole | Russia and 2 Neighbors Form Economic Union That Has a Ukraine-Size Hole |
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| ASTANA, Kazakhstan — The presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus formally signed an agreement on Thursday to create a limited economic union — an alliance hobbled by the absence of Ukraine but one long pursued by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to confirm his country as a global economic force. | |
| “Today we are creating a powerful, attractive center of economic development, a big regional market that unites more than 170 million people,” Mr. Putin said during the ceremonies. He underscored the significant energy resources, work force and cultural heritage of the combined nations. | “Today we are creating a powerful, attractive center of economic development, a big regional market that unites more than 170 million people,” Mr. Putin said during the ceremonies. He underscored the significant energy resources, work force and cultural heritage of the combined nations. |
| Sitting at a table with his two fellow leaders in front of their respective flags, Mr. Putin said that the group, formally known as the Eurasian Economic Union, had the potential to create a global transportation hub joining the trade flows of Europe and Asia. | Sitting at a table with his two fellow leaders in front of their respective flags, Mr. Putin said that the group, formally known as the Eurasian Economic Union, had the potential to create a global transportation hub joining the trade flows of Europe and Asia. |
| While that may eventually prove to be the case, the alliance that comes into force on Jan. 1 will be a pale imitation of what the members first envisioned: an eastern version of the 28-member European Union. | While that may eventually prove to be the case, the alliance that comes into force on Jan. 1 will be a pale imitation of what the members first envisioned: an eastern version of the 28-member European Union. |
| “Three weak economies getting together and integrating: How much good can come out of it?” said Nargis Kassenova, the director of the Central Asian Studies Center at Kimep University in Almaty, who is part of a small but vocal opposition to the union in Kazakhstan. “Now, it is even worse because one is under sanctions and drifting away from the West,” Ms. Kassenova added, referring to Western economic sanctions against Russia. | “Three weak economies getting together and integrating: How much good can come out of it?” said Nargis Kassenova, the director of the Central Asian Studies Center at Kimep University in Almaty, who is part of a small but vocal opposition to the union in Kazakhstan. “Now, it is even worse because one is under sanctions and drifting away from the West,” Ms. Kassenova added, referring to Western economic sanctions against Russia. |
| Although the presidents of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan attended the signing ceremony and expressed an interest in joining, the missing guest at the party was Ukraine. That country’s previous government in Kiev tacked back and forth on whether it would join the European Union or the new Eurasian group, eventually choosing Mr. Putin’s offer and igniting a public uprising that ended up bringing down the president in February. | Although the presidents of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan attended the signing ceremony and expressed an interest in joining, the missing guest at the party was Ukraine. That country’s previous government in Kiev tacked back and forth on whether it would join the European Union or the new Eurasian group, eventually choosing Mr. Putin’s offer and igniting a public uprising that ended up bringing down the president in February. |
| “We lost someone along the way, I mean Ukraine,” said Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. Mr. Lukashenko, who received a $2 billion loan and energy concessions from Russia just before the signing, acknowledged that the union as constituted was something less than he had anticipated. “Unfortunately, it is not the agreement that our partners originally announced,” he said, according to Belta, the official Belarus news agency. | “We lost someone along the way, I mean Ukraine,” said Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. Mr. Lukashenko, who received a $2 billion loan and energy concessions from Russia just before the signing, acknowledged that the union as constituted was something less than he had anticipated. “Unfortunately, it is not the agreement that our partners originally announced,” he said, according to Belta, the official Belarus news agency. |
| He also called for economic union to be followed by political and military unity, a concept that Kazakhstan rejected. | He also called for economic union to be followed by political and military unity, a concept that Kazakhstan rejected. |
| “We are not creating a political organization; we are forming a purely economic union,” Bakytzhan Sagintayev, the first deputy prime minister of Kazakhstan and lead negotiator, said in an interview. “It is a pragmatic means to get benefits. We don’t meddle into what Russia is doing politically, and they cannot tell us what foreign policy to pursue.” | “We are not creating a political organization; we are forming a purely economic union,” Bakytzhan Sagintayev, the first deputy prime minister of Kazakhstan and lead negotiator, said in an interview. “It is a pragmatic means to get benefits. We don’t meddle into what Russia is doing politically, and they cannot tell us what foreign policy to pursue.” |
| The agreement coalesced with great fanfare — and quickly — with members changing trade laws in a matter of years, a process that required decades for the European Union. But in the end, it became less about promoting economic development than about providing Russia with a diplomatic victory, analysts said. | The agreement coalesced with great fanfare — and quickly — with members changing trade laws in a matter of years, a process that required decades for the European Union. But in the end, it became less about promoting economic development than about providing Russia with a diplomatic victory, analysts said. |
| Like the huge gas agreement Russia signed with China this month, the Eurasian Economic Union is a way for Moscow to show that it is pivoting to Asia, and that it can withstand Western sanctions and other pressures as it pursues its national interests, as in its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. | Like the huge gas agreement Russia signed with China this month, the Eurasian Economic Union is a way for Moscow to show that it is pivoting to Asia, and that it can withstand Western sanctions and other pressures as it pursues its national interests, as in its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. |
| “It is meant to signal that these Western programs and opprobrium are not having an effect on the economy and that Russia is developing into a distinct pole in the multipolar system,” said Alexander Cooley, a professor of political science at Barnard College. | “It is meant to signal that these Western programs and opprobrium are not having an effect on the economy and that Russia is developing into a distinct pole in the multipolar system,” said Alexander Cooley, a professor of political science at Barnard College. |
| The idea of a Eurasian union was first floated 20 years ago by Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, the president of sprawling, sparsely populated Kazakhstan. As the Soviet Union disintegrated, Mr. Nazarbayev suggested that a union could provide the economic, national and military security that had evaporated. | The idea of a Eurasian union was first floated 20 years ago by Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, the president of sprawling, sparsely populated Kazakhstan. As the Soviet Union disintegrated, Mr. Nazarbayev suggested that a union could provide the economic, national and military security that had evaporated. |
| But a curious thing happened over the intervening years. By the time Russia came around to the idea, under Mr. Putin, the former Soviet republics had developed on their own. In Kazakhstan, for example, 47 percent of its trade activity was with Russia in 1995. By 2011, 40 percent of its exports went to Europe, while only 9 percent went to Russia. | But a curious thing happened over the intervening years. By the time Russia came around to the idea, under Mr. Putin, the former Soviet republics had developed on their own. In Kazakhstan, for example, 47 percent of its trade activity was with Russia in 1995. By 2011, 40 percent of its exports went to Europe, while only 9 percent went to Russia. |
| Russia adopted the idea of a Eurasian union for three main reasons, according to analysts. | Russia adopted the idea of a Eurasian union for three main reasons, according to analysts. |
| First, Mr. Putin wanted to create his own economic pole that would raise Russia to the status of other major global trading powers like the European Union, China and the United States. | First, Mr. Putin wanted to create his own economic pole that would raise Russia to the status of other major global trading powers like the European Union, China and the United States. |
| Second, the union would secure Moscow’s influence over the economic development of its former republics, particularly in Central Asia, before they began to look elsewhere — to China, for example. | Second, the union would secure Moscow’s influence over the economic development of its former republics, particularly in Central Asia, before they began to look elsewhere — to China, for example. |
| Third, many analysts believe that Mr. Putin came to see the Eurasian union as an almost physical manifestation of his budding ideology that Russia and its satellites represent the anti-West, a bastion of more conservative, traditional and religious values opposed to aspects of Western culture, like equal rights for gays, an independent news media and political activism. | Third, many analysts believe that Mr. Putin came to see the Eurasian union as an almost physical manifestation of his budding ideology that Russia and its satellites represent the anti-West, a bastion of more conservative, traditional and religious values opposed to aspects of Western culture, like equal rights for gays, an independent news media and political activism. |
| It was the first reason that Mr. Putin stressed in an essay he published in the newspaper Izvestia in December 2011, laying out his vision. “We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming one of the poles in the modern world and serving as an efficient bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region,” he wrote. | It was the first reason that Mr. Putin stressed in an essay he published in the newspaper Izvestia in December 2011, laying out his vision. “We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming one of the poles in the modern world and serving as an efficient bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region,” he wrote. |
| Mr. Putin denied that he was trying to recreate the Soviet Union, a charge frequently leveled by critics of the plan, including the United States. | Mr. Putin denied that he was trying to recreate the Soviet Union, a charge frequently leveled by critics of the plan, including the United States. |
| “His political vision is of a greater Russia,” said Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former secretary of state, in a speech in March. “I said when I was still secretary that his goal is to re-Sovietize Russia’s periphery.” | “His political vision is of a greater Russia,” said Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former secretary of state, in a speech in March. “I said when I was still secretary that his goal is to re-Sovietize Russia’s periphery.” |
| Problems were manifest even before the Ukrainian crisis. The fundamental flaw, experts noted, is that all the governments involved in creating the union are run by authoritarian figures loath to share power within their own governments, much less with other states. Even the democracies of the European Union wrestle with power-sharing issues constantly. | Problems were manifest even before the Ukrainian crisis. The fundamental flaw, experts noted, is that all the governments involved in creating the union are run by authoritarian figures loath to share power within their own governments, much less with other states. Even the democracies of the European Union wrestle with power-sharing issues constantly. |
| Some analysts suggest that the loss of Ukraine as a potential member was the death knell for the Eurasian Economic Union. On a purely economic scale, losing Ukraine meant losing a market of more than 40 million people. Ukraine also provided economic diversity when paired with the two energy exporters. | Some analysts suggest that the loss of Ukraine as a potential member was the death knell for the Eurasian Economic Union. On a purely economic scale, losing Ukraine meant losing a market of more than 40 million people. Ukraine also provided economic diversity when paired with the two energy exporters. |
| More important, Russia’s use of its military has spooked the other members. At the last moment, some senior figures questioned the idea of the union itself. | More important, Russia’s use of its military has spooked the other members. At the last moment, some senior figures questioned the idea of the union itself. |
| “We cannot be in a union with an occupying state,” Oraz Jandosov, a former Kazakh central bank governor and finance minister, said in a March interview with the website Ratel.su. He fretted about the possibility that Western economic sanctions on Russia might reverberate through the Kazakh economy. | “We cannot be in a union with an occupying state,” Oraz Jandosov, a former Kazakh central bank governor and finance minister, said in a March interview with the website Ratel.su. He fretted about the possibility that Western economic sanctions on Russia might reverberate through the Kazakh economy. |
| Kazakhstan also felt vulnerable in particular because one-quarter of its population consists of ethnic Russians, concentrated along the northern border. Mr. Putin and other senior figures have stressed Russia’s right to safeguard the 25 million ethnic Russians outside its borders. | Kazakhstan also felt vulnerable in particular because one-quarter of its population consists of ethnic Russians, concentrated along the northern border. Mr. Putin and other senior figures have stressed Russia’s right to safeguard the 25 million ethnic Russians outside its borders. |
| Russia proposed several attributes that mirrored the European Union, including a common passport and currency, a collective parliament, a common border force and a common economic foreign policy. But Kazakhstan applied the brakes to anything other than economic ties. | Russia proposed several attributes that mirrored the European Union, including a common passport and currency, a collective parliament, a common border force and a common economic foreign policy. But Kazakhstan applied the brakes to anything other than economic ties. |
| The speeches glossed over such differences, and Mr. Putin suggested that the wider world was already enthusiastic. | The speeches glossed over such differences, and Mr. Putin suggested that the wider world was already enthusiastic. |
| “We are forming a major market of 170 million people with huge industrial, scientific and technical potential, with colossal natural resources,” he said. “Wherever I go and whomever I meet, everyone wants to know how to establish relations with the new Eurasian union.” | “We are forming a major market of 170 million people with huge industrial, scientific and technical potential, with colossal natural resources,” he said. “Wherever I go and whomever I meet, everyone wants to know how to establish relations with the new Eurasian union.” |