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Front National's victory reflects the failure of France's elite The Front National's victory reflects a failure of France's elite
(about 2 hours later)
In the 10th arrondissement of Paris where I live, Front National scored only 6% of the vote in Sunday's European elections, against 25% nationally. The ruling Socialist party came first in this "bobo" area of central Paris, but only managed a humiliating third place nationally, ceding 20% to the Greens.In the 10th arrondissement of Paris where I live, Front National scored only 6% of the vote in Sunday's European elections, against 25% nationally. The ruling Socialist party came first in this "bobo" area of central Paris, but only managed a humiliating third place nationally, ceding 20% to the Greens.
This gap between the so-called Parisian elite and the rest of the country is one of the keys to understanding the success of Marine Le Pen's historic victory. Her extreme rightwing party (she disapproves of it being described as such) came first with a quarter of the votes.This gap between the so-called Parisian elite and the rest of the country is one of the keys to understanding the success of Marine Le Pen's historic victory. Her extreme rightwing party (she disapproves of it being described as such) came first with a quarter of the votes.
Of course, there are limits to this success, and despite its claims, Front National has not become France's largest party overnight. Massive levels of abstention – almost 60% – reduces the authority of the success, and a truly successful party cannot be limited to winning an election few voters consider important. Front National only controls five small and mid-size towns, against thousands for the major parties. It won no regions or departments.Of course, there are limits to this success, and despite its claims, Front National has not become France's largest party overnight. Massive levels of abstention – almost 60% – reduces the authority of the success, and a truly successful party cannot be limited to winning an election few voters consider important. Front National only controls five small and mid-size towns, against thousands for the major parties. It won no regions or departments.
Two more elements help to put this election in perspective: Front National has once before created an upset in French politics when Marine's father, the party's founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, came second in the 2002 presidential election, eliminating socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from the second round against Jacques Chirac. And despite her success on Sunday, Front National actually got 1.5m fewer votes than in the 2012 presidential election.Two more elements help to put this election in perspective: Front National has once before created an upset in French politics when Marine's father, the party's founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, came second in the 2002 presidential election, eliminating socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from the second round against Jacques Chirac. And despite her success on Sunday, Front National actually got 1.5m fewer votes than in the 2012 presidential election.
But it would still be a mistake to underestimate the magnitude of this political earthquake. The main reason is that it comes at a time of huge national doubt about France's future, and an equally huge loss of faith in its ruling political elite, both right and left.But it would still be a mistake to underestimate the magnitude of this political earthquake. The main reason is that it comes at a time of huge national doubt about France's future, and an equally huge loss of faith in its ruling political elite, both right and left.
These are connected. Deep in the economic and social crisis, with more than 3m unemployed and no concrete sign of relief, French voters have concluded that the main parties have failed.These are connected. Deep in the economic and social crisis, with more than 3m unemployed and no concrete sign of relief, French voters have concluded that the main parties have failed.
The Socialist president, François Hollande, bears much of the responsibility in this feeling. He came to power in 2012 after defeating the unpopular incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy with the promise of a quick fix to the crisis. He claimed "My enemy is finance" and promised to renegotiate the already concluded European stability pact, which included the need for a reduction of budget deficits and public debt.The Socialist president, François Hollande, bears much of the responsibility in this feeling. He came to power in 2012 after defeating the unpopular incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy with the promise of a quick fix to the crisis. He claimed "My enemy is finance" and promised to renegotiate the already concluded European stability pact, which included the need for a reduction of budget deficits and public debt.
During his two years in power, he has done the exact opposite, without much explanation or justification. His "enemy" became his best friend, and the U-turn he performed earlier this year, ordering massive financial transfers to the ailing French business sector, came as a shock to a population subject to record levels of personal taxation.During his two years in power, he has done the exact opposite, without much explanation or justification. His "enemy" became his best friend, and the U-turn he performed earlier this year, ordering massive financial transfers to the ailing French business sector, came as a shock to a population subject to record levels of personal taxation.
Hollande has also been unable to turn the tables in Europe. He has had to stick to the austerity programme that France's eurozone commitments envisaged. His government has embarked on a €50bn reduction in public spending, an unprecedented programme in a country where the state plays a major role.Hollande has also been unable to turn the tables in Europe. He has had to stick to the austerity programme that France's eurozone commitments envisaged. His government has embarked on a €50bn reduction in public spending, an unprecedented programme in a country where the state plays a major role.
The Socialist party is paying the price of these fake promises, of policies that barely differentiate it from a conservative approach, except on social issues such as gay marriage, which deeply divided the country last year.The Socialist party is paying the price of these fake promises, of policies that barely differentiate it from a conservative approach, except on social issues such as gay marriage, which deeply divided the country last year.
All this should have helped the main rightwing opposition, the UMP. But Sarkozy's party never recovered from its 2012 defeat and failed to offer a credible alternative. This week, the UMP imploded over a financial scandal relating to election spending during Sarkozy's 2012 campaign. Its leader has resigned and its discredit is deep and durable.All this should have helped the main rightwing opposition, the UMP. But Sarkozy's party never recovered from its 2012 defeat and failed to offer a credible alternative. This week, the UMP imploded over a financial scandal relating to election spending during Sarkozy's 2012 campaign. Its leader has resigned and its discredit is deep and durable.
Le Pen has long anticipated the discomfiture of the two main parties. She coined the UMPS tag, fusing the UMP and the Socialist party into a single party. It is a marketing ploy that has captured voters' imaginations.Le Pen has long anticipated the discomfiture of the two main parties. She coined the UMPS tag, fusing the UMP and the Socialist party into a single party. It is a marketing ploy that has captured voters' imaginations.
She succeeded in territory her father never explored: she has moved from confrontational politics to a more respectable, proposal-oriented approach. Her economic programme may sound unrealistic and even demagogic to experts and elites. Laurence Parisot, a former president of the business federation Medef, even published a book demolishing the FN's programme, but to no effect.She succeeded in territory her father never explored: she has moved from confrontational politics to a more respectable, proposal-oriented approach. Her economic programme may sound unrealistic and even demagogic to experts and elites. Laurence Parisot, a former president of the business federation Medef, even published a book demolishing the FN's programme, but to no effect.
Front National has won the conceptual battle with simplistic ideas – get France out of the euro, stop the free movement of people in Europe – all radically different from the mainstream parties that tried and failed with "reasonable" policies.Front National has won the conceptual battle with simplistic ideas – get France out of the euro, stop the free movement of people in Europe – all radically different from the mainstream parties that tried and failed with "reasonable" policies.
Its victory is less due to its own qualities than to the failure and discredit of the ruling elite. Front National will therefore not be defeated with shouts about "Fascism at our gates" as in 2002, but with the rebuilding of a modern political class, equipped new ideas and unquestionable ethics. It won't happen overnight and the work hasn't even started yet: a situation which has had Le Pen laughing all the way to the polls.Its victory is less due to its own qualities than to the failure and discredit of the ruling elite. Front National will therefore not be defeated with shouts about "Fascism at our gates" as in 2002, but with the rebuilding of a modern political class, equipped new ideas and unquestionable ethics. It won't happen overnight and the work hasn't even started yet: a situation which has had Le Pen laughing all the way to the polls.