Local elections: small earthquake in England
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Version 0 of 1. It was the election that broke the mould. On a day that rocked the party political order, Ukip was the big new winner in the English local elections, exceeding expectations and riding a populist wave. Nigel Farage's party captured dozens of new council seats and scored an unprecedentedly large share of the projected vote nationwide. All three established parties took hits as Ukip surged. The result was that, overnight, England now had four-party politics, just like Scotland and Wales. With all parties scoring less than a third of the votes, another hung parliament loomed on the horizon. As the BBC's Nick Robinson put it: "The people have spoken. Now it's time for the political classes to try to work out what on earth they meant." That was last year, of course, not this. Memories can fade, so it is worth reminding ourselves about the 2013 local elections because they show that what happened in the 2014 locals this week was not a bolt from the blue. Indeed, 2014 was not as dramatic a revolt against the established parties as 2013. As the dust settled, this week's results look like a minor-key replication of what happened 12 months ago. Ukip's share of the vote went down this week, not up. Yes, it scored impressively well, in the high teens of vote share according to BBC projections, but it did not come close to dislodging Labour and the Conservatives as the two frontrunner parties, while the Liberal Democrats remained far behind in the low teens. The 2014 elections, in short, look less like the eruption of a new political order than the partial solidification of the one that erupted a year ago. The earthquake was last year, not this. That is not to downplay Ukip's achievement this week. Ukip has arrived – and has stayed. It won more seats than in 2013 on a lower share of the vote. Whether Ukip commands nationwide support in the high teens, as in 2014, or the low 20s, as in 2013 – perhaps more when the European elections are counted on Sunday – the upshot is the same: English local government has four big parties now. Mr Farage, almost single-handedly, has leveraged popular hostility to Europe, immigration and the political establishment into a national electoral force. The other parties can no longer ignore Ukip or its voting power. Nothing like this has happened since the emergence of the SDP in 1981. The SDP came, stayed and challenged significantly for a while; then it disappeared. Ukip's bubble may deflate too, in time. It is far too soon to say for sure. Ukip should not be underestimated. But it should not be overestimated either. This week's elections have certainly underlined two things that were not widely enough understood. Ukip can take votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative ones; and its impact on first-past-the-post outcomes is hard to predict in detail. In that respect the party is a bit like one of those hard-to-control 'infernal machines' beloved of 19th-century revolutionaries. If Ukip maintains a large share of the vote in the 2015 general election, it may make a Commons breakthrough itself. But the Ukip vote is not uniform – it is strong in the east of England, but weaker in London, Scotland and Wales and most northern cities. Even in seats it does not win, Ukip is likely to trigger unpredictable results of several kinds. By old standards, none of the three main parties did well this week. Yet, just as Ukip did a little worse than some predictions, so the others suffered less badly than first appeared. All had disappointments, losing councils they hoped to gain or retain. Yet both Labour and the Tories put their national share of the vote up from 2013, and BBC projections placed Labour two points ahead of the Tories, which should calm some Labour nerves a little. Even the Lib Dems had some successes in core vote areas, which may deter an instant panic. The truth is that British politics remain a nip-and-tuck fight. It is a very fluid picture. And the European results will roll the dice anew tomorrow. |