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Lib Dem local election results suggest party could lose 20 parliamentary seats Lib Dem local election results suggest party could lose 20 parliamentary seats
(about 5 hours later)
Nick Clegg is on course to lose as many as 20 parliamentary seats, including the Twickenham constituency of the business secretary, Vince Cable, according to projections based on his party's share of the vote in the local elections. An e-petition was launched by grassroots Liberal Democrats urging Nick Clegg to resign "so the party may once again get a fair hearing".
In a sign of the fall in support for the Liberal Democrats after four years in coalition with the Tories, the Guardian analysis of the results shows the veteran former deputy leader Simon Hughes would lose his Bermondsey and Old Southwark seat, 32 years after his historic byelection victory over Labour. Clegg has pledged not to resign in the wake of another round of terrible local election results, and has so far won the support of most of his parliamentary colleagues.
The loss of 20 seats, which would cut the number of Lib Dem MPs by more than a third from the 57 elected in 2010, would be a blow to Clegg's authority. It would take the party well below the 46 seats won at the 1997 general election – the year of Paddy Ashdown's breakthrough. The petition has the support of the former Lib Dem MP for Romsey, Sandra Gidley, Bill le Breton, the former chair of the Association of Lib Dem Councillors and Martin Tod, a member of the party's federal executive. It also has the support of a number of younger party activists, but it is not clear if it will sway the minds of instinctively loyal Lib Dem MPs.
But it would mean the Lib Dems could still hold the balance of power in a hung parliament and the deputy prime minister would be able to say he has avoided what is being called the "nuclear wasteland" scenario in which his party would lose two thirds of its seats, sinking below the 20 it won in 1992. The Lib Dems lost nearly 300 council seats and took a terrible pasting in London, Manchester and Liverpool.
The projections for the next election came amid signs that Clegg's leadership is safe until next year's general election. Cable and the party president, Tim Farron, the two most likely candidates to replace Clegg, went out of their way to express their loyalty to him. Overall the BBC had the Lib Dem share of the vote at 13%. Some of the projections based on the local elections suggest a slew of Lib Dem MPs would lose their seats, including the business secretary, Vince Cable, Cambridge MP Julian Huppert and the justice minister, Simon Hughes.
Clegg loyalists believe the local elections show the Lib Dems are on course for a reasonable performance in the general election because the party performed well – and even topped the poll – in a series of parliamentary seats currently held by the party. The fate of the party in its Scottish and Welsh seats will only be clear when the European election results are announced on Sunday.
These included Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's constituency, where the Lib Dems claimed the constituency figures showed he would have been re-elected taking 53% of the vote, up 3.7 %, with Labour on 32% and the Conservatives on 14.7%. However, the Tories did not stand in some of the safest Lib Dem wards in the constituency, depressing the Tory vote. Clegg's aides say the local election results represent a tale of two elections: one in which the party did relatively well against the Conservatives, such as in Eastleigh, and one in which it did very badly when competing against Labour, especially in London.
The Lib Dems also said they won Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Eastleigh – scene of a Lib Dem byelection win in February last year when Mike Thornton held the seat, stabilising Clegg's leadership. They say a second hung parliament still looks the most likely result in 2015.
But the projections show the party will face a battle to hold on to vulnerable seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green in north London, Solihull in the West Midlands, Burnley, Cambridge, Bradford and East Manchester Withington. The petition states: "The devastating results on Friday have made it clear that even the best Liberal Democrat candidates, councillors and councils have come up against a brick wall. It is simply impossible for the party to make any headway so long as it is led by Nick Clegg.
Many Lib Dem MPs in the south-west, often facing a Tory challenge, are not yet able to test the level of party support since there were few elections in their area in the latest round. But the BBC's projection of a 13% share of the vote prompted Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, to say: "We are more than holding our own." "There is a serious trust deficit – rightly or wrongly. Nothing Clegg says can be taken seriously by the electorate. Even when he was articulately expounding the case for Europe against Nigel Farage no one believed him."
In Southport, the seat of John Pugh, the Lib Dems would have held six of the seven wards inside his constituency. The Lib Dems also look to have survived in Sutton and Cheam. Last week's ComRes poll gave Clegg an approval rating of 56% – exactly the same score as the very worst rating of Michael Foot when he was the leader of Labour, who was himself the least popular party leader since polling began.
But in Portsmouth South where the MP, Mike Hancock, is also a sitting councillor, he found himself ejected as a councillor. He stood as an independent. "Clegg has alienated almost two-thirds of the party's former voters, many of them drawn from its core support," the petition continues.
In some seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green, Labour polled 36% while the Lib Dems had 25%. In Twickenham, the Tories were beating Cable by 35% to 30%. In Cambridge Julian Huppert also looks to be in trouble, trailing Labour in the key wards by 39 to 28. "These elections represent our last chance to take stock and make the right decision in renewing the party to present a robust platform in 2015."
Hughes told Radio 4's PM programme: "We are not going to sweep the country next year. It will be difficult. But we plan to hold the ground we have. If we do that all the opinion polls suggest there is not going to be an overall majority for either of the other parties. There will therefore be a balanced parliament and we will be ready to play our way in continuing to build the economy." The petition will at least serve the purpose of resolving his leadership. A loss of 20 seats, which would cut the number of Lib Dem MPs by more than a third from the 57 elected in 2010, would be a blow to Clegg's authority. It would take the party well below the 46 seats won at the 1997 general election – the year of Paddy Ashdown's breakthrough.
Both Cable and the party president, Tim Farron, the two most likely candidates to replace Clegg, went out of their way to express their loyalty to him.
The local election results suggest that in Sheffield Hallam, Clegg's constituency, the party leader would have been re-elected, taking 53% of the vote, up 3.7%, with Labour on 32% and the Conservatives on 14.7%. But t The Lib Dems also said they won Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Eastleigh – scene of a Lib Dem byelection win in February last year when Mike Thornton held the seat, stabilising Clegg's leadership.
But the projections show the party will face a battle to hold on to vulnerable seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green in north London, Solihull in the West Midlands, Burnley, Bradford and East Manchester Withington.