Militancy, energy and economy: Abdel Fatah al-Sisi's intray

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/22/abdel-fatah-al-sisi-intray

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When the imprisoned Mohamed Morsi found out Abdel Fatah al-Sisi sought higher office, he asked his lawyer in bemusement: "He actually wants to be president?" Here's why: Egypt is still stuck in the same economic and bureaucratic quagmires that brought millions to the street against Hosni Mubarak, and which have worsened since. Whatever his current popularity, Sisi – like Morsi – may find he has only a short time to solve them.

A tanking economy

Egypt's economy has been in freefall since Mubarak was overthrown in 2011. For the time being, Sisi's government will be buttressed by billions in aid from sympathetic Gulf states, but in the medium term he faces the same dire problems that contributed to Morsi's overthrow. Egypt's foreign currency reserves are less than half what they were in 2011, hurting its ability to import fuel and food – a crisis in a country that is experiencing huge fuel shortages and which is the world's largest wheat importer.

Sisi took until the week of the election to produce an economic plan, prompting critics to fear that he is uncertain of what action to take. In interviews, he said he expected ordinary Egyptians to make further personal sacrifices to see themselves through the coming period. (He seems likely to dismantle the energy subsidy system that sucks up about a quarter of the state's budget.) He also wants an end to protests and strikes in order to lure back frightened investors and tourists. But whether a population that has already suffered so much, and which is now accustomed to doing away with tin-eared presidents, will stand for either measure remains to be seen.

The future of political Islam

Since removing Morsi, the state has enforced a brutal crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, the fathers of political Islam. Under a Sisi presidency that strategy seems likely to continue. "There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my tenure," says the former field marshal." Though Sisi is devout, and clearly believes that Islamic ideals should play a role in government, he wants the Brotherhood crushed because he believes its ideology makes it incapable of loyalty to the state. His position is helped by Egypt's new constitution, which bans religious parties. Whether it is a viable policy is unclear: the Brotherhood still has hundreds of thousands of members at large who appear unwilling to abandon street protest and who will not merely disappear. Meanwhile, the Nour party, an ultraconservative Islamist group, has backed Sisi since July and surely expects political breathing space in return.

A rise in militancy

Since Sisi ousted Morsi last July, jihadist militants have waged a bloody insurgency against the army and the police, first in the Sinai peninsula and then on the Egyptian mainland. Foreigners and ordinary citizens have not been the focus of the attacks, but the insurgency has killed hundreds of troops, successfully targeted police headquarters in Cairo, and the northern city of Mansoura, and unsuccessfully taken aim at Sisi himself. The response so far has been to fight fire with fire – a scorched-earth counter-insurgency in Sinai, the militants' main base, and a brutal crackdown on the group the government claims is encouraging the terrorists: the Brotherhood. In recent weeks, the pace of attacks seems to have dropped, but in general the counter-insurgency seems far from won. The return of tourism and foreign investment, and ultimately Sisi's own life, may all depend on its swift success.

Divisions in the ranks

Sisi is the establishment's candidate. He enjoys the explicit backing of most media networks, many businessmen, and army high command. But cracks have emerged. Sisi's former boss, the retired general Sami Anan, wanted to run a rival campaign, and Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafik, was recorded criticising him. He has the loyalty of top serving generals, but according to the military analyst Robert Springborg, among junior officers "there would be sharper differences about what the military should be doing, how the economy should be managed, what the counter-terrorism programme should look like". And it remains to be seen how long the lower ranks of the poorly paid police force will put up with bearing the brunt of the violent backlash against Sisi's crackdown on dissent. "If it goes on for a protracted period, then [the police force] is going to face all sorts of problems – keeping the troops loyal, and getting them out on the streets to begin with," Springborg says.

Calls for reform

Sisi has made it clear that he sees protests and strikes as unpatriotic at a time when the wheels of production need to turn faster than ever. His only sop to revolutionary demands is his backing for a minimum wage. In the short term, the general public may not mind – part of his popularity is down to a desire for stability and a lack of faith in what the revolution has achieved. But if the economy continues to decline, it could prove hard for Sisi to survive if he has nothing to offer Egyptians – particularly the 60% under 30 – apart from oppression. According to surveys by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), 80% of those who endorsed Morsi's ouster would also rise again if their aspirations aren't met. Widespread workers' strikes will probably continue. Further democratic and structural reforms may ultimately be the only means of placating them.

Energy crisis

Frequent power cuts and diesel shortages were among the last straws for the Morsi government – and Sisi's first few months may witness something similar. Egypt cannot produce enough fuel to meet domestic demand and as its foreign currency reserves are so low, it can't buy enough from overseas to fill the gap. Slashing fuel subsidies might help save money and cut demand but risks sparking unrest if the cuts are not made in a way that cushions the poorest. There is more fuel to be mined within Egypt. But the foreign companies with the means to extract it are already owed billions in backpayments by the government and are wary of further involvement for no compensation.