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Parliamentary Wins May Seal Third Term for Iraqi Premier | |
(about 3 hours later) | |
BAGHDAD — Beating expectations, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki secured the largest number of seats in last month’s parliamentary elections, the first since the withdrawal of American forces at the end of 2011, putting him in a strong position to secure a third term as Iraq’s leader as negotiations begin to form a new government. | BAGHDAD — Beating expectations, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki secured the largest number of seats in last month’s parliamentary elections, the first since the withdrawal of American forces at the end of 2011, putting him in a strong position to secure a third term as Iraq’s leader as negotiations begin to form a new government. |
The elections were held on April 30, during a time of heightened violence around the country, but initial results — still subject to challenges from various political parties — were not released until Monday, as extra security fanned out around the capital in advance of the announcement. | The elections were held on April 30, during a time of heightened violence around the country, but initial results — still subject to challenges from various political parties — were not released until Monday, as extra security fanned out around the capital in advance of the announcement. |
Mr. Maliki and his Shiite Islamist political coalition were expected to win a plurality of votes, and they did, but the margin of victory was greater than most analysts and politicians here forecast. Even though he faces stiff opposition to a third term from Shiite rivals and Iraq’s two other dominant factions, Sunni Arabs and Kurds, Mr. Maliki will be difficult to unseat amid what is expected to be a protracted process — one that could drag on for months — for establishing a governing coalition. | Mr. Maliki and his Shiite Islamist political coalition were expected to win a plurality of votes, and they did, but the margin of victory was greater than most analysts and politicians here forecast. Even though he faces stiff opposition to a third term from Shiite rivals and Iraq’s two other dominant factions, Sunni Arabs and Kurds, Mr. Maliki will be difficult to unseat amid what is expected to be a protracted process — one that could drag on for months — for establishing a governing coalition. |
The apparent victory for Mr. Maliki validated his campaign strategy of putting himself forward as the essential man to fight a rising Sunni insurgency, even as his plan to dislodge militants from Anbar Province has faltered. There, in western Iraq, fighters aligned with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria have seized control of the city of Falluja and other areas. They have done so despite a persistent campaign by the Iraqi security forces, including the shelling of cities and villages, to push them out. In Washington, the results are likely to be viewed as a worrisome sign for Iraq, as many top American officials were hoping to see Mr. Maliki go. | The apparent victory for Mr. Maliki validated his campaign strategy of putting himself forward as the essential man to fight a rising Sunni insurgency, even as his plan to dislodge militants from Anbar Province has faltered. There, in western Iraq, fighters aligned with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria have seized control of the city of Falluja and other areas. They have done so despite a persistent campaign by the Iraqi security forces, including the shelling of cities and villages, to push them out. In Washington, the results are likely to be viewed as a worrisome sign for Iraq, as many top American officials were hoping to see Mr. Maliki go. |
It was the United States government that gave crucial support to Mr. Maliki when he became prime minister in 2006, and again, though with greater reluctance, in 2010. Now, though, many argue that Mr. Maliki has divided the country, pursuing policies like the mass arrest of Sunnis in the name of fighting terrorism that have heightened sectarian divisions and brought the country to the brink of another civil war. | It was the United States government that gave crucial support to Mr. Maliki when he became prime minister in 2006, and again, though with greater reluctance, in 2010. Now, though, many argue that Mr. Maliki has divided the country, pursuing policies like the mass arrest of Sunnis in the name of fighting terrorism that have heightened sectarian divisions and brought the country to the brink of another civil war. |
Mr. Maliki and his coalition won 93 seats in Iraq’s 328-seat Parliament, more than three times as many as the second-place finisher, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by the Shiite cleric Ammar al-Hakim, which won 29 seats. Mr. Maliki also did better than in 2010, when he came in a close second to a largely Sunni coalition that was led by a secular Shiite, Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister. | Mr. Maliki and his coalition won 93 seats in Iraq’s 328-seat Parliament, more than three times as many as the second-place finisher, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by the Shiite cleric Ammar al-Hakim, which won 29 seats. Mr. Maliki also did better than in 2010, when he came in a close second to a largely Sunni coalition that was led by a secular Shiite, Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister. |
Another Shiite rival to Mr. Maliki, a coalition aligned with the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, won 28 seats. Together Mr. Hakim and Mr. Sadr, who oppose another term for Mr. Maliki, are expected to seek the support of Kurds and Sunni Arabs to unite and form a government. | Another Shiite rival to Mr. Maliki, a coalition aligned with the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, won 28 seats. Together Mr. Hakim and Mr. Sadr, who oppose another term for Mr. Maliki, are expected to seek the support of Kurds and Sunni Arabs to unite and form a government. |
Before the election, one Western diplomat considered Mr. Maliki’s chances for victory in these terms: “Anything less than 70 seats will be seen as a failure. Anything more than 90 will put him in a strong position. The gray area is in between.” | Before the election, one Western diplomat considered Mr. Maliki’s chances for victory in these terms: “Anything less than 70 seats will be seen as a failure. Anything more than 90 will put him in a strong position. The gray area is in between.” |
Now, with 93 seats, Mr. Maliki is already claiming a mandate for another term in power. | Now, with 93 seats, Mr. Maliki is already claiming a mandate for another term in power. |
“It is clear the people didn’t vote only for Maliki, but they also voted for a third term, so the political parties must not stand against the will of the people,” Ali al-Musawi, Mr. Maliki’s spokesman, said in an interview. | “It is clear the people didn’t vote only for Maliki, but they also voted for a third term, so the political parties must not stand against the will of the people,” Ali al-Musawi, Mr. Maliki’s spokesman, said in an interview. |
In Anbar, which is dominated by Sunni Arabs, voting was limited because of the violence, raising concerns that Sunnis would feel left out of the process. Despite the low turnout, under Iraqi law the province will retain the same number of seats in Parliament, regardless of how many people voted there. | In Anbar, which is dominated by Sunni Arabs, voting was limited because of the violence, raising concerns that Sunnis would feel left out of the process. Despite the low turnout, under Iraqi law the province will retain the same number of seats in Parliament, regardless of how many people voted there. |
The election was not without allegations of fraud, but Iraq’s election authorities said irregularities were minor, although the votes from some polling centers were canceled. In some mixed areas, Sunni officials have raised allegations that Iraq’s security forces, and Shiite militias that have regrouped recently with some support from the government, prevented Sunnis from voting. | The election was not without allegations of fraud, but Iraq’s election authorities said irregularities were minor, although the votes from some polling centers were canceled. In some mixed areas, Sunni officials have raised allegations that Iraq’s security forces, and Shiite militias that have regrouped recently with some support from the government, prevented Sunnis from voting. |
Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni and a deputy prime minister, on Monday called for an investigation into those allegations. “We call on the United Nations, the Security Council and all other international institutions,” he said in a statement, “to open an international investigation about the fraud that the government and its militias have carried out to get the results to their side.” | Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni and a deputy prime minister, on Monday called for an investigation into those allegations. “We call on the United Nations, the Security Council and all other international institutions,” he said in a statement, “to open an international investigation about the fraud that the government and its militias have carried out to get the results to their side.” |
With the results now out, the country is girding for what could be a long, violent and dysfunctional period of negotiations among the various political groups to form a new government. The last time, in 2010, the process took nearly nine months. | With the results now out, the country is girding for what could be a long, violent and dysfunctional period of negotiations among the various political groups to form a new government. The last time, in 2010, the process took nearly nine months. |
In a statement that highlighted the worry over increased violence following the results, the United Nations said on Sunday that it was “urging candidates and their supporters to maintain a peaceful and democratic spirit as the election results are announced.” | In a statement that highlighted the worry over increased violence following the results, the United Nations said on Sunday that it was “urging candidates and their supporters to maintain a peaceful and democratic spirit as the election results are announced.” |