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| World Cup 2014: Is football coming home this summer? Not according to the Home Office | World Cup 2014: Is football coming home this summer? Not according to the Home Office |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The England manager Roy Hodgson has insisted his young squad has got what it takes to lift the World Cup this summer. | The England manager Roy Hodgson has insisted his young squad has got what it takes to lift the World Cup this summer. |
| But officials in the Home Office appear not to share his confidence. Before a ball has been kicked in Brazil, they think it is all over. | But officials in the Home Office appear not to share his confidence. Before a ball has been kicked in Brazil, they think it is all over. |
| According to an analysis by Theresa May’s department, there is a high likelihood of England being knocked out in the tournament’s group stages and the national team has virtually no chance of reaching the semi-finals. | According to an analysis by Theresa May’s department, there is a high likelihood of England being knocked out in the tournament’s group stages and the national team has virtually no chance of reaching the semi-finals. |
| Its gloomy forecast came in a report analysing the impact of extending pub opening hours during the World Cup on drink-fuelled crime and alcohol sales. | Its gloomy forecast came in a report analysing the impact of extending pub opening hours during the World Cup on drink-fuelled crime and alcohol sales. |
| It said: “While England are certain to be playing in the matches in the first period, there is a high probability that they will not be playing in the later matches. | It said: “While England are certain to be playing in the matches in the first period, there is a high probability that they will not be playing in the later matches. |
| “To account for this, we have used odds from Betfair, implying that England have a 54 per cent probability of progressing past the group stage and an 11 per cent probability of progressing past the quarter-finals, allowing us to estimate the expected benefits.” | “To account for this, we have used odds from Betfair, implying that England have a 54 per cent probability of progressing past the group stage and an 11 per cent probability of progressing past the quarter-finals, allowing us to estimate the expected benefits.” |
| The Home Office appears to have little faith in Roy's boys (Getty) The Home Office rushed out a contrite statement soon after its downbeat prediction emerged. It said: “The Government is of course 100 per cent behind the England football team and we wish the players every success in the World Cup.” | |
| But the shadow Home Office minister, Lord Rosser, told peers that it was “good to know what the Government thinks of England’s prospects.” | But the shadow Home Office minister, Lord Rosser, told peers that it was “good to know what the Government thinks of England’s prospects.” |