Opinion polls: leaders of the pack

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/12/opinion-polls-leaders-of-the-pack

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Have we reached a tipping point in British politics, where the crux of the next general election is suddenly clearer? It may seem so in the light of the latest Guardian/ICM opinion poll. For the first time since March 2012, the Conservatives are in first place, though more because of a Labour slide of six points since April than because of a Tory surge (up one point). Ukip, up four, have at the same time moved into third place ahead of the trailing Liberal Democrats. These numbers suggest a page may be turning.

To lend weight to these findings, a poll on Monday by Lord Ashcroft showed a very similar picture to ICM's, also with a two-point Tory lead over Labour and also with Ukip in third. Meanwhile in the contest for next week's European parliament elections, the Tories, Ukip and Labour are neck and neck in ICM, with the Greens also ahead of the Lib Dems.

There can therefore be little dispute about the big winners in this month's poll: the Conservatives and Ukip. Nor is it very difficult to suggest why that is. The signs of renewed and sustained economic growth are stronger now. A month ago, the ICM poll taken in the wake of Maria Miller's cabinet resignation seemed to show little Tory benefit from the improving economy. A month on, however, it begins to look as though the voters are more confident about the economy, as one might expect.

That could also explain the stronger personal ratings for David Cameron and, in particular, George Osborne, both of whom now enjoy positive approval figures after long periods with negative net ratings. In contrast, both Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg remain deeply mired in negative numbers, with little change from their ratings a year ago. This is a miserable poll for both men and for their parties. Its message cannot be ignored.

Nor is it hard to see why Ukip is doing so well. Nigel Farage has been consistently in the spotlight for the past few weeks, and has used his opportunities to good effect, in spite of some embarrassments. The combination of a disenchanted public mood towards established politicians and an election which many treat as a protest opportunity surely explains both Ukip's strong second place in ICM's European election poll and its current surge in the Westminster voting-intention stakes too.

An important question is how much weight can be placed on any month's figures. Here a bit of honest caution is always in order. All polls are snapshots of moving targets. All polls have margins of error of plus or minus three points (more in some circumstances). All polling organisations make published adjustments to their figures based on experience. It is also possible that responses to a Westminster voting intention question are a bit atypical during a European election period. Remember, too, that the general election voting system favours Labour in ways the polls do not show.

With all that said, though, these figures still point to a modest Conservative recovery. They also highlight Labour's continuing failure to translate public support for individual policies into a larger sell. The figures confirm that Ukip in 2014 is an enduringly potent force. And they underline that the Liberal Democrats are not making any recovery at all. There are unwelcome messages for all the established parties here, particularly Labour. And any suggestion that a Tory government is more likely and a Labour one less likely will be nationalist ammunition in the Scottish debate.

Opinion polls 12 months before a general election are not always a guide to the eventual result. In June 1991 Labour led the Tories in the polls by 10 points; but in the 1992 election the Tories won by eight. There are no iron laws here. Yet all the current polls point to a contest in which the two big parties together win a smaller share of the vote than ever. That is a message of this poll too, with even the Tories only on 33%. The race is very tight. If the trend continues, any party that fails to draw the right tough lessons will put its chances even more at risk. Neither Labour nor the Tories can afford to ignore that each is on a knife edge.