Ukraine: flawed exercise

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/12/ukraine-exercise-geneva-putin

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Events in Ukraine took an even darker turn on Sunday when ballots were held in two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian separatist organisers claimed 86% voted for some form of self-rule in Donetsk and 96% in Luhansk. On the back of these results, some of them called for union with Russia.

As an exercise in democracy, this was seriously flawed. There were no neutral international observers, the wording on ballot papers was obscure, electoral rolls were dispensed with, allowing voters only to show ID. The biggest problem was turnout. Organisers claimed 75%, which was clearly untrue. In Mariupol, second-biggest city in the Donetsk region, with a population of half a million, international reporters found only four polling stations open.

For weeks now, Vladimir Putin's true intentions have been unclear. Is he intent on annexation of eastern Ukraine to add to the acquisition of Crimea? Or to turn eastern Ukraine into a chaotic buffer state similar to Transnistria? Or is he prepared to compromise, leaving what remains of Ukraine intact? The immediate response of the Kremlin was unpromising, saying the ballots reflected the will of the people in Donetsk and Luhansk. More hopefully, the Kremlin avoided saying whether it would, like Crimea, annex Donetsk and Luhansk. This may be the one positive in these events.

The best hope now is to focus on the Ukrainian presidential election on 25 May, a nationwide opportunity to elect a legitimate government. Sunday's ballots undoubtedly complicate this. The ballot organisers, declaring the results a victory for self-rule, say they will tell voters not to participate in the election. If he genuinely does not want to see the disintegration of Ukraine, Mr Putin needs to tell the ballot organisers in Donetsk and Luhansk that the provinces will not be invited to join Russia.

The west has to expand the targets for sanctions. It needs to combine this with increased support for the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The OSCE is little known outside diplomatic circles but it finds itself as the one neutral body in the crisis capable of acting as a broker. The OSCE mission is to monitor events on the ground and encourage dialogue. It is scheduled to send 100 long-term observers to the presidential elections and 900 short-term ones, one of the biggest election missions it has mounted.

Its peacemaking efforts so far have largely failed. The agreement it ostensibly presided over in Geneva in April quickly collapsed. Ominous too was the seizure of OSCE observers by pro-Russian separatists. Yet it remains the best forum on offer. As soon as possible, the OSCE needs to hold Geneva II talks – while sanctions continue – to encourage Russian backing for the 25 May elections.