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Do the math? Labour's new US poll guru must disentangle nuanced polls Do the math? Labour's new US poll guru must disentangle nuanced polls
(about 5 hours later)
Barack Obama's strategist David Axelrod arrives in London on Tuesday for a two-day orientation with his new employers the Labour party, but if he picks up a newspaper at Heathrow he may well be tempted to wheel the baggage trolley round and head straight back through Customs to Chicago.Barack Obama's strategist David Axelrod arrives in London on Tuesday for a two-day orientation with his new employers the Labour party, but if he picks up a newspaper at Heathrow he may well be tempted to wheel the baggage trolley round and head straight back through Customs to Chicago.
One poll showing a Tory lead of two points – the first since 2012 – can be dismissed, especially one released by a Conservative supporter such as Lord Ashcroft, but a second poll showing the exact same lead and published only hours later by Guardian-ICM has the appearance of a trend, and one that a year out from the election could be difficult to reverse. In the Ashcroft poll the Tory Labour split is 34 to 32 and in the Guardian ICM it is 33 to 31. Ukip is on 15 in both polls. The Liberal Democrat figures are nine and 13 respectively. In short, the findings are uncannily similar.One poll showing a Tory lead of two points – the first since 2012 – can be dismissed, especially one released by a Conservative supporter such as Lord Ashcroft, but a second poll showing the exact same lead and published only hours later by Guardian-ICM has the appearance of a trend, and one that a year out from the election could be difficult to reverse. In the Ashcroft poll the Tory Labour split is 34 to 32 and in the Guardian ICM it is 33 to 31. Ukip is on 15 in both polls. The Liberal Democrat figures are nine and 13 respectively. In short, the findings are uncannily similar.
Axelrod is unlikely to see this as the perfect "welcome aboard" gift, but he is not a man to retreat faced by a poll downturn. The Obama team in 2008 and 2012 repeatedly had to quell Democrat or media panics, and when he arrives at Labour headquarters in Victoria, London, he is likely to meet a familiar array of decapitated chickens pretending their heads are on. The question for him and Labour's polling team is to work out what is happening, and why.Axelrod is unlikely to see this as the perfect "welcome aboard" gift, but he is not a man to retreat faced by a poll downturn. The Obama team in 2008 and 2012 repeatedly had to quell Democrat or media panics, and when he arrives at Labour headquarters in Victoria, London, he is likely to meet a familiar array of decapitated chickens pretending their heads are on. The question for him and Labour's polling team is to work out what is happening, and why.
It is not news that Cameron has a stronger personal poll rating than Miliband. Nor is it a surprise to find the government more trusted on the economy. There have also been a number of recent polls showing a very narrow Labour lead of one point. Populus, possibly Ashcroft's polling company, has had the two parties neck and neck. The surprise has been that no poll showed Labour behind before.It is not news that Cameron has a stronger personal poll rating than Miliband. Nor is it a surprise to find the government more trusted on the economy. There have also been a number of recent polls showing a very narrow Labour lead of one point. Populus, possibly Ashcroft's polling company, has had the two parties neck and neck. The surprise has been that no poll showed Labour behind before.
The congenital Labour optimists will point to the weekend Sunday Times YouGov poll showing a healthy Labour lead of seven points. It is possible to nit pick about the Ashcroft poll. Of the 1,001 people interviewed only 487 expressed a voting intention. The number of Ukip supporters coming from Labour in the Ashcroft poll looks strangely large.The congenital Labour optimists will point to the weekend Sunday Times YouGov poll showing a healthy Labour lead of seven points. It is possible to nit pick about the Ashcroft poll. Of the 1,001 people interviewed only 487 expressed a voting intention. The number of Ukip supporters coming from Labour in the Ashcroft poll looks strangely large.
The Guardian ICM poll showing the Tories narrowly first in the European elections is also surprising. All polling companies are nervous about European election polls owing to the low numbers that will actually vote, as opposed to promising to vote. Nor do any of these numbers pick up what is happening in the marginals where Ashcroft's polling tends to show Labour doing better. Finally, this Tory lead of two points does not produce an overall Cameron majority, but a second hung parliament.The Guardian ICM poll showing the Tories narrowly first in the European elections is also surprising. All polling companies are nervous about European election polls owing to the low numbers that will actually vote, as opposed to promising to vote. Nor do any of these numbers pick up what is happening in the marginals where Ashcroft's polling tends to show Labour doing better. Finally, this Tory lead of two points does not produce an overall Cameron majority, but a second hung parliament.
But for an opposition party not to win a European election campaign – in essence an invitation to hit the government free of charge – would be unprecedented, and just reminds everyone the extent to which Ukip is changing the electoral maths. Neither major party can be proud they are polling below 35%. Yet Labour strategists appear to have rejected plans to attack Ukip in the European election campaign.But for an opposition party not to win a European election campaign – in essence an invitation to hit the government free of charge – would be unprecedented, and just reminds everyone the extent to which Ukip is changing the electoral maths. Neither major party can be proud they are polling below 35%. Yet Labour strategists appear to have rejected plans to attack Ukip in the European election campaign.
Nevertheless. it seems logical from now that the Conservatives will be able to squeeze the UKIP vote more effectively than Labour can squeeze the Liberal Democrat vote. If Cameron can take 5 points off the UKIP 15%, he is, on the figures published yesterday, closer to victory than Miliband. Nevertheless. it seems logical from now that the Conservatives will be able to squeeze the Ukip vote more effectively than Labour can squeeze the Liberal Democrat vote. If Cameron can take 5 points off the Ukip 15%, he is, on the figures published on Monday, closer to victory than Miliband.
Labour had been running a populist policy-rich agenda in the campaign – controlling private rents, banning the most exploitative zero hours contracts, guaranteeing GP appointments within 48 hours, and hinting at some form of rail renationalisation. But this is not translating into support for Labour or Miliband. Something needs fixing, and in his interview with the Guardian, Axelrod spoke about the need for Miliband to speak with passion.Labour had been running a populist policy-rich agenda in the campaign – controlling private rents, banning the most exploitative zero hours contracts, guaranteeing GP appointments within 48 hours, and hinting at some form of rail renationalisation. But this is not translating into support for Labour or Miliband. Something needs fixing, and in his interview with the Guardian, Axelrod spoke about the need for Miliband to speak with passion.
Axelrod has a reputation for speaking blunt truths unto power, indeed to the greatest power on earth, the president of the United States. It will be his task to do the same to Miliband.Axelrod has a reputation for speaking blunt truths unto power, indeed to the greatest power on earth, the president of the United States. It will be his task to do the same to Miliband.