This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll Support for Labour drops six points as Tories take lead in latest ICM poll
(about 1 hour later)
Labour's support is draining away, according to a Guardian/ICM poll which records the first Conservative lead in over two years when people are asked how they will vote at the next general election. Labour's support is draining away, according to a Guardian/ICM poll which records the first Conservative lead in over two years and gives Ed Miliband's party its smallest share of the vote for four years.
In a result that will add to Labour nerves a week and half before European and local elections, Cameron's party emerges two points ahead on 33% because Labour has sunk by a six points since April, taking the opposition to 31%, its lowest ebb since June 2010 – the bitter aftermath of Gordon Brown's election defeat. The Tories are on 33% in the monthly state of the parties poll, up a single point and two points ahead of Labour, which has sunk by six points since April. The poll will add to Labour nerves a week and a half before European and local elections, and less than a year before the general election.
Flush with publicity all kinds before the European ballots, Nigel Farage's Ukip climbs four in the Westminster stakes, to 15%. The Liberal Democrats edge up one to 13%; the Conservatives also gained a single point. Flush with publicity of all kinds before the European ballot, Nigel Farage's Ukip climbs four points to 15%. The Liberal Democrats edge up one to 13%. The ICM finding is surprising because although polling averages have pointed towards a narrowing gap between the two main parties, internet polls for the Sunday papers pointed to continuing Labour leads of between four and seven points.
The ICM finding is surprising because although polling averages have pointed towards a narrowing gap between the two main parties, internet polls for the Sunday papers pointed to continuing Labour leads of between four and seven points. However, a second telephone poll published on Monday, sponsored by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, also points to a two-point Conservative lead. That poll has the Tories on 34% against Labour's 32%.
But a second telephone poll published on Monday, sponsored by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft , also points to a two-point Conservative lead. That poll has the Tories on 34% against Labour's 32%. Haunted by memories of the Thatcher/Major years, when healthy opposition leads during mid-term repeatedly disappeared in the runup to polling day, Labour has long feared that Miliband's edge may not be big enough to take the party safely into power next May.
Haunted by memories of the Thatcher/Major years, when healthy opposition leads during mid-term repeatedly disappeared in the run-up to polling day, Labour has long feared that Miliband's edge against the Tories might not be big enough to take the party safely through to next spring. As a nervous Labour party seeks an explanation for its dwindling ratings, it may take some comfort from the fact that the Tories have barely advanced. However, with Europe, immigration and an improving economy in the spotlight, the party will now be wondering whether it faces an even stiffer task in persuading an uncertain country to entrust it again with the levers of power.
Labour's low ebb in the Guardian/ICM poll goes hand-in-hand with negative views of its leader. Despite a month in which Miliband has put regulation of rental agreements on the agenda, and made the running against the government over AstraZeneca, 51% of votes believe he is doing a bad job, twice as many as the 26% who think he is doing well, giving him a net negative rating of -25. Labour's low ebb in the Guardian/ICM poll goes hand in hand with negative views of its leader. Despite a month in which Miliband has put regulation of rental agreements on the agenda, and made the running against the government over AstraZeneca, 51% of voters believe he is doing a bad job, twice as many as the 26% who think he is doing well, giving him a net negative rating of -25.
This is the worst score for him that ICM has recorded on this occasional question, although it is only marginally worse than the net -22 he notched up when the same question was last asked, a year ago. This is the worst score for him that ICM has recorded on this occasional question, although it is only marginally worse than the net -22 he notched up when it was last asked, a year ago.
What has changed since then is where this leaves Miliband in relation to other political leaders. Nick Clegg remains comparably unpopular, with 51% also believing him to be doing badly and just 30% rating him as doing a good job.What has changed since then is where this leaves Miliband in relation to other political leaders. Nick Clegg remains comparably unpopular, with 51% also believing him to be doing badly and just 30% rating him as doing a good job.
But whereas as Cameron and George Osborne were also in negative territory last spring, after a year in which the economic recovery has picked up pace, their standing is now much improved. Some 44% of voters believe the prime minister is doing a good job, against 42% who say the reverse. That gives him a net rating of +2, which compares to -15 last May. But whereas David Cameron and George Osborne were also in negative territory last spring, after a year in which the economic recovery has picked up pace their standing is now much improved.
The bounceback in George Osborne's stock is more dramatic. After the "omnishambles" budget of 2012, his net score was -25, and in April 2013, when the question was last asked of the chancellor, it was -14. But in the latest poll, 41% of respondents tell ICM that he is doing a good job, as against just 36% who regard him as doing badly, which gives him a net +5. Some 44% of voters believe the prime minister is doing a good job, against 42% who say the reverse. That gives him a net rating of +2, which compares with -15 last May.
The bounceback in Osborne's stock is more dramatic. After the "omnishambles" budget of 2012, his net score was -25, and in April 2013, when the question was last asked of the chancellor, it was -14.
But in the latest poll, 41% of respondents tell ICM that he is doing a good job, against just 36% who regard him as doing badly, which gives him a net +5.
ICM's monthly phone survey is best interpreted in the light of wider trends. Labour opened up a clear lead during the first half of 2012, after Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms turned controversial and more particularly after that unpopular budget.ICM's monthly phone survey is best interpreted in the light of wider trends. Labour opened up a clear lead during the first half of 2012, after Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms turned controversial and more particularly after that unpopular budget.
Ukip is now within three points of the 18% it notched up a year ago, in its best-ever score with ICM. Curiously, however, the party's resurgence comes alongside flagging enthusiasm for Nigel Farage. Ukip is now within three points of the 18% it notched up a year ago, in its best ever score with ICM. Curiously, however, the party's resurgence comes alongside flagging enthusiasm for Farage.
In May last year, his job approval rating was +17. Today, 39% say he is doing a bad job as against 31% who see him as doing well, giving him a negative net rating of -8. Among Lib Dem voters his score is -20, among Labour supporters -28, and even among Conservatives he notches up -11. By contrast, among his own tribe, his popularity is overwhelming: 93% of Ukip backers believe Farage is doing well, suggesting support for the man is translating into support for the party. In May last year, his job approval rating was +17. Today, 39% say he is doing a bad job as against 31% who see him as doing well, giving him a negative net rating of -8.
Nick Clegg just scores in positive territory among current Conservatives, a contrast with 2010 Lib Dem voters, who now believe that the man they supported last time around is doing a bad job, by 44% to 40%. Among Lib Dem voters his score is -20, among Labour supporters -28, and even among Conservatives he notches up -11. By contrast, among his own tribe, his popularity is overwhelming: 93% of Ukip backers believe Farage is doing well, suggesting support for the man is translating into support for the party.
Miliband can draw some comfort from the narrow majority of current Labour voters, 52%, who believe he is doing well, although – after Labour's "incredible shrinking man" broadcast assaulting Clegg – he will be disappointed that 54% of 2010 Lib Dems rate him as doing badly. Clegg just scores in positive territory among current Conservatives, a contrast with 2010 Lib Dem voters, who now believe that the man they supported last time around is doing a bad job, by 44% to 40%.
ICM also asked more specifically about voting intentions for next week's European elections. With only 37% of electors suggesting they are certain to cast their ballot, such projections inescapably depend on fewer respondents than those for Westminster. Even so, the news is again encouraging for the Conservatives, and worrying for Labour. Miliband can draw some comfort from the narrow majority of current Labour voters, 52%, who believe that he is doing well, although – after Labour's "incredible shrinking man" broadcast assaulting Clegg – he will be disappointed that 54% of 2010 Lib Dems rate him as doing badly.
ICM also asked more specifically about voting intentions for next week's European elections. With only 37% of electors suggesting they are certain to cast their ballot, such projections inescapably depend on fewer respondents than those for Westminster.
Even so, the news is again encouraging for the Conservatives, and worrying for Labour.
The Tories are up two on April, which puts them on 27%, and in a virtual dead heat with Ukip, which has bounced up four in the European stakes to stand at 26%. Labour sinks by 12 points on April, to 24%, with appreciable proportions of the party's 2010 votes moving to Ukip and the Greens.The Tories are up two on April, which puts them on 27%, and in a virtual dead heat with Ukip, which has bounced up four in the European stakes to stand at 26%. Labour sinks by 12 points on April, to 24%, with appreciable proportions of the party's 2010 votes moving to Ukip and the Greens.
Together with Lib Dem defectors (Clegg's party languishes on 7%) this helps push the Greens up four and into a clear fourth place, on 10%. The Scottish and Welsh nationalists are on 2% each, and assorted independents and others notch up 3%. Together with Lib Dem defectors –Clegg's party languishes on 7% – this helps push the Greens up four and into a clear fourth place, on 10%. The Scottish and Welsh nationalists are on 2% each, and assorted independents and others notch up 3%.
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 9-11th May 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Voters across the United Kingdom will elect 73 members of the European parliament next week. There are also local council elections for 4,200 seats in 161 councils and direct elections for mayors in four London boroughs. Labour is looking to reach at least 35% in the council elections. The polls are the last major test of public opinion before the general election, which is set for 7 May 2015.
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 9-11 May 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.