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Lithuania goes to the polls spooked by Russian intervention in Ukraine Lithuania goes to the polls spooked by Russian intervention in Ukraine
(4 months later)
Lithuanians began voting on Sunday to elect their president, with the incumbent "Iron Lady" Dalia Grybauskaite an apparent shoo-in as fears in the EU Baltic state soar over a resurgent Russia.Lithuanians began voting on Sunday to elect their president, with the incumbent "Iron Lady" Dalia Grybauskaite an apparent shoo-in as fears in the EU Baltic state soar over a resurgent Russia.
Grybauskaite, renowned for her Thatcheresque resolve, is poised to win a second term as many who remember Soviet times see her as their best hope amid Europe's worst standoff with Moscow since the Cold War. Grybauskaite, renowned for her Thatcheresque resolve, is poised to win a second term as many who remember Soviet times see her as their best hope amid Europe's worst standoff with Moscow since the Cold War.
A former EU budget chief, the 58-year-old Grybauskaite is likely to score more than 50% of the vote, recent opinion surveys showed, but low turnout could trigger a run-off on 25 May.A former EU budget chief, the 58-year-old Grybauskaite is likely to score more than 50% of the vote, recent opinion surveys showed, but low turnout could trigger a run-off on 25 May.
Six other candidates have all polled around 10% and are not regarded as serious rivals.Six other candidates have all polled around 10% and are not regarded as serious rivals.
"If turnout exceeds 50%, she has quite a good chance of scoring a first round victory," Ramunas Vilpisauskas, a political scientist at Vilnius University, told AFP."If turnout exceeds 50%, she has quite a good chance of scoring a first round victory," Ramunas Vilpisauskas, a political scientist at Vilnius University, told AFP.
A candidate must win half of the votes cast with a turnout of at least 50% to win in round one.A candidate must win half of the votes cast with a turnout of at least 50% to win in round one.
In 2009, Grybauskaite captured a resounding 69.04 percent of the vote in the seven-candidate first round with turnout at 51.67 percent.In 2009, Grybauskaite captured a resounding 69.04 percent of the vote in the seven-candidate first round with turnout at 51.67 percent.
Russia's annexation of Ukraine's former Crimean peninsula and sabre-rattling in Lithuania's neighbouring Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have sparked fear in the country of three million.Russia's annexation of Ukraine's former Crimean peninsula and sabre-rattling in Lithuania's neighbouring Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have sparked fear in the country of three million.
Grybauskaite first urged and then welcomed the arrival of American troops last month as Nato stepped up its presence in the Baltic states, which spent five decades under Soviet occupation until 1991.Grybauskaite first urged and then welcomed the arrival of American troops last month as Nato stepped up its presence in the Baltic states, which spent five decades under Soviet occupation until 1991.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all keen to see more alliance "boots on the ground" amid the Ukraine crisis.Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all keen to see more alliance "boots on the ground" amid the Ukraine crisis.
Grybauskaite has sworn to take up arms herself in case of Russian aggression.Grybauskaite has sworn to take up arms herself in case of Russian aggression.
"If there's a problem, I'll never flee abroad. I'll take a gun myself to defend the country if that what's needed for national security," she said as campaigning wound down on Thursday."If there's a problem, I'll never flee abroad. I'll take a gun myself to defend the country if that what's needed for national security," she said as campaigning wound down on Thursday.
By contrast, Grybauskaite's centre-left and populist rivals insist dialogue with Russia is crucial, and have focused more on social issues.By contrast, Grybauskaite's centre-left and populist rivals insist dialogue with Russia is crucial, and have focused more on social issues.
"We'll have to seek dialogue with Russia. Any kind of peace is better than a war," Social Democrat Zigmantas Balcytis said."We'll have to seek dialogue with Russia. Any kind of peace is better than a war," Social Democrat Zigmantas Balcytis said.
Balcytis, a member of the European Parliament, and populist Labour party MP Arturas Paulauskas are her most likely rivals in a possible run-off.Balcytis, a member of the European Parliament, and populist Labour party MP Arturas Paulauskas are her most likely rivals in a possible run-off.
Professor Algis Krupavicius, a lecturer in Lithuania's second city of Kaunas, insisted the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Sunday's vote should not be underestimated.Professor Algis Krupavicius, a lecturer in Lithuania's second city of Kaunas, insisted the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Sunday's vote should not be underestimated.
"The Ukraine crisis is an important mobilising factor, and Grybauskaite's stern rhetoric is likely to appeal to centre-right voters," he told AFP."The Ukraine crisis is an important mobilising factor, and Grybauskaite's stern rhetoric is likely to appeal to centre-right voters," he told AFP.