'Potholes, parking and Ukip: main parties primed for local election battle' diff viewer (0/1)

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Potholes, parking and Ukip: main parties primed for local election battle	Potholes, parking and Ukip: main parties primed for local election battle
2014-05-09 18:35:15 UTC	2014-05-12 11:40:08 UTC (3 days later)
Labour is expecting a night of solid gains in the 22 May local elections, and in a symbol of its local government recovery, to retake the helm of the Local Government Association for the first time in 10 years. But key tests will be whether its progress comes at the expense of the Conservatives, and whether its council seat gains are in key marginals rather than being over-concentrated in London.	Labour is expecting a night of solid gains in the 22 May local elections, and in a symbol of its local government recovery, to retake the helm of the Local Government Association for the first time in 10 years. But key tests will be whether its progress comes at the expense of the Conservatives, and whether its council seat gains are in key marginals rather than being over-concentrated in London.
Ed Miliband has thrown resources and solid policy, especially on housing and the devolution of power to cities, at the elections. The party is looking to gain more than 350 seats to show that, one year out from the general election, a reunified left can defeat a splintered right.	Ed Miliband has thrown resources and solid policy, especially on housing and the devolution of power to cities, at the elections. The party is looking to gain more than 350 seats to show that, one year out from the general election, a reunified left can defeat a splintered right.
The recent controversial party election broadcast, which dismisses Nick Clegg as the "Un-Credible Shrinking Man", shows the importance that Labour attaches to attracting disaffected Liberal Democrat voters. But the elections will also be studied to see if they provide ammunition for those Labour candidates in more prosperous Britain who fear Miliband is not connecting with disillusioned Tories.	The recent controversial party election broadcast, which dismisses Nick Clegg as the "Un-Credible Shrinking Man", shows the importance that Labour attaches to attracting disaffected Liberal Democrat voters. But the elections will also be studied to see if they provide ammunition for those Labour candidates in more prosperous Britain who fear Miliband is not connecting with disillusioned Tories.
Inevitably, much focus in the local elections is on London where all seats in the boroughs are up for grabs. Just under half the 4,200 seats being contested are in the capital. There are also four mayoral contests in London, as well as a fifth one just outside the city in marginal Watford.	Inevitably, much focus in the local elections is on London where all seats in the boroughs are up for grabs. Just under half the 4,200 seats being contested are in the capital. There are also four mayoral contests in London, as well as a fifth one just outside the city in marginal Watford.
Labour already runs 17 mainly inner London boroughs, the Conservatives 11 and the Liberal Democrats just two. Labour's six battleground boroughs are Harrow, Barnet, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets, Croydon and Merton. In terms of London seats, Labour has the most to defend as it currently holds 870 seats, the Conservatives 712, and the Liberal Democrats 246.	Labour already runs 17 mainly inner London boroughs, the Conservatives 11 and the Liberal Democrats just two. Labour's six battleground boroughs are Harrow, Barnet, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets, Croydon and Merton. In terms of London seats, Labour has the most to defend as it currently holds 870 seats, the Conservatives 712, and the Liberal Democrats 246.
Labour has a strong membership base in London and has tried to make the city's deregulated private rental market the main campaign issue.	Labour has a strong membership base in London and has tried to make the city's deregulated private rental market the main campaign issue.
Outside London, the party will want to win control in Trafford and Solihull, the last two non-Labour Metropolitan councils, as well as marginal Crawley, Swindon and Peterborough. It would also want a national equivalent share of the vote well above 35%.	Outside London, the party will want to win control in Trafford and Solihull, the last two non-Labour Metropolitan councils, as well as marginal Crawley, Swindon and Peterborough. It would also want a national equivalent share of the vote well above 35%.
The Liberal Democrats insist that, where they are putting in the effort, the vote is holding up. But they will be nervous if that vote deteriorates in south-west London – the constituency base of both the business secretary, Vince Cable and the energy secretary, Ed Davey, as well as two other MPs.	The Liberal Democrats insist that, where they are putting in the effort, the vote is holding up. But they will be nervous if that vote deteriorates in south-west London – the constituency base of both the business secretary, Vince Cable and the energy secretary, Ed Davey, as well as two other MPs.
In Kingston upon Thames the gap between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems is less than 10% in nine of the 16 wards. In 2010, the last time these elections were fought in London, the Liberal Democrats were on 25%. Their current national standing is closer to 12%. The Greens as well as Labour will be hunting that vote.	In Kingston upon Thames the gap between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems is less than 10% in nine of the 16 wards. In 2010, the last time these elections were fought in London, the Liberal Democrats were on 25%. Their current national standing is closer to 12%. The Greens as well as Labour will be hunting that vote.
The UK Independence party, by contrast, is hoping to secure as many as 80-100 councillors, mainly at the expense of the Tories. But the results will be patchy and only give leader Nigel Farage some clues as to where to direct resources for the general election.	The UK Independence party, by contrast, is hoping to secure as many as 80-100 councillors, mainly at the expense of the Tories. But the results will be patchy and only give leader Nigel Farage some clues as to where to direct resources for the general election.
The big rise in Ukip's share of the vote is relatively recent. In the byelections it has contested since May 2013 it has secured an average 22% of the vote. It should do equally well this month, even though many cities do not yet look natural Ukip territory.	The big rise in Ukip's share of the vote is relatively recent. In the byelections it has contested since May 2013 it has secured an average 22% of the vote. It should do equally well this month, even though many cities do not yet look natural Ukip territory.
A record 2,150 Ukip candidates are standing, but Farage is still finding out if he can build a local base, something the Social Democratic party never achieved in the 80s. In London, for instance, he has only 21 candidates in Bexley, 30 in Havering, 16 in Redbridge and 21 in Barking.	A record 2,150 Ukip candidates are standing, but Farage is still finding out if he can build a local base, something the Social Democratic party never achieved in the 80s. In London, for instance, he has only 21 candidates in Bexley, 30 in Havering, 16 in Redbridge and 21 in Barking.
The big loser is likely to be the Liberal Democrats. The party's vote has been collapsing in metropolitan areas and the plan to challenge Labour in the northern heartlands has become a pipe dream. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, polling experts at Plymouth University, have the party down to lose as many as 340 seats, the Conservatives to lose 160 and Labour to gain 500. But much depends on how well Ukip performs. Labour says the estimate of 500 gains is too high, pointing out that if the Liberal Democrats do as badly as in 2012 the number of seats the party will lose is going to be closer to 250.	The big loser is likely to be the Liberal Democrats. The party's vote has been collapsing in metropolitan areas and the plan to challenge Labour in the northern heartlands has become a pipe dream. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, polling experts at Plymouth University, have the party down to lose as many as 340 seats, the Conservatives to lose 160 and Labour to gain 500. But much depends on how well Ukip performs. Labour says the estimate of 500 gains is too high, pointing out that if the Liberal Democrats do as badly as in 2012 the number of seats the party will lose is going to be closer to 250.
The Liberal Democrat battleground	The Liberal Democrat battleground
The bullet points on the whiteboard at the Lib Dem headquarters in Cheltenham remind candidates and activists of the wide range of subjects they may face on the campaign trail in Gloucestershire: the economy, Europe, the badger cull, the bottleneck on the A417 dual carriageway.	The bullet points on the whiteboard at the Lib Dem headquarters in Cheltenham remind candidates and activists of the wide range of subjects they may face on the campaign trail in Gloucestershire: the economy, Europe, the badger cull, the bottleneck on the A417 dual carriageway.
"But what most people want to talk about on the doorstep at local election time is the very local stuff – potholes, refuse collection, recycling, things like that," said party worker Chris Ward. "I suppose some might think it's boring, but it is important for people."	"But what most people want to talk about on the doorstep at local election time is the very local stuff – potholes, refuse collection, recycling, things like that," said party worker Chris Ward. "I suppose some might think it's boring, but it is important for people."
With the elections looming the Lib Dem office bustles with activity. Workers are in and out to pick up leaflets, study lists of voters, talk strategy. "It's no problem getting workers up for it," said Ward, who describes his role as "geeing up" the volunteers, "they're keen and motivated."	With the elections looming the Lib Dem office bustles with activity. Workers are in and out to pick up leaflets, study lists of voters, talk strategy. "It's no problem getting workers up for it," said Ward, who describes his role as "geeing up" the volunteers, "they're keen and motivated."
Which is just as well. The elections in Cheltenham are important not just on a local level but as a test of where the party stands at it gears up for the general election. By most accounts in the polls, 22 May is not going to be pretty, but the party's spinners insist that every battle is fought on the ground, on local issues, and not necessarily its national record.	Which is just as well. The elections in Cheltenham are important not just on a local level but as a test of where the party stands at it gears up for the general election. By most accounts in the polls, 22 May is not going to be pretty, but the party's spinners insist that every battle is fought on the ground, on local issues, and not necessarily its national record.
The Lib Dems and Tories have long battled for control of the spa town, best known as the spiritual home of national hunt racing and the base for the intelligence and security organisation GCHQ.	The Lib Dems and Tories have long battled for control of the spa town, best known as the spiritual home of national hunt racing and the base for the intelligence and security organisation GCHQ.
In 2010 the Lib Dems won an overall majority on the borough council and this was one of the few places in the country where the orange vote held up strong at the 2012 local elections , despite the party's national dalliance with power alienating supporters almost everywhere else.	In 2010 the Lib Dems won an overall majority on the borough council and this was one of the few places in the country where the orange vote held up strong at the 2012 local elections , despite the party's national dalliance with power alienating supporters almost everywhere else.
At that point it was in firm control of the 40-strong council, with 25 members. Since then, the grip has loosened a little, with one member becoming independent after falling out with the party over plans to build on green spaces, and the Tories pinching a seat in a byelection.	At that point it was in firm control of the 40-strong council, with 25 members. Since then, the grip has loosened a little, with one member becoming independent after falling out with the party over plans to build on green spaces, and the Tories pinching a seat in a byelection.
This time round, half the seats are up for grabs, with the Lib Dems defending 12 of them. The Ukip factor will play a bigger part than ever before. Farage's party won three Gloucestershire county council seats last year and is fielding 11 candidates in these local elections – more than Labour. It is not inconceivable that the Lib Dems could lose overall control of Cheltenham. If so, it will signal the worst case scenario for the party.	This time round, half the seats are up for grabs, with the Lib Dems defending 12 of them. The Ukip factor will play a bigger part than ever before. Farage's party won three Gloucestershire county council seats last year and is fielding 11 candidates in these local elections – more than Labour. It is not inconceivable that the Lib Dems could lose overall control of Cheltenham. If so, it will signal the worst case scenario for the party.
~~The council leader, Steve Jordan, said he accepted the election was an important test for the party ahead of the general election, in which MP Martin ~~Horrid~~ will be defending a 4,920 majority.~~	The council leader, Steve Jordan, said he accepted the election was an important test for the party ahead of the general election, in which MP Martin Horwood will be defending a 4,920 majority.
"This is a dry run for that," Jordan said. "We're working hard in areas we might not usually work quite so hard in, partly so we'll be ready for next year."	"This is a dry run for that," Jordan said. "We're working hard in areas we might not usually work quite so hard in, partly so we'll be ready for next year."
Jordan said he believed the Lib Dem message, that the party has worked hard for the country within the coalition, was getting through. "I think people see we have done good things. I also think people are up for a conversation because of the uncertainty over things like the coalition and Ukip. People used to be certain about their politics – you were born Conservative or Labour and we were the third party. There's less certainty now."	Jordan said he believed the Lib Dem message, that the party has worked hard for the country within the coalition, was getting through. "I think people see we have done good things. I also think people are up for a conversation because of the uncertainty over things like the coalition and Ukip. People used to be certain about their politics – you were born Conservative or Labour and we were the third party. There's less certainty now."
Ukip has claimed it is doing well in a wide range of neighbourhoods, from working-class areas (or as working class as Cheltenham gets) to upmarket rural settlements.	Ukip has claimed it is doing well in a wide range of neighbourhoods, from working-class areas (or as working class as Cheltenham gets) to upmarket rural settlements.
The party is campaigning hard on the sticky issue of building homes on greenfield sites, as it did when it beat the Conservatives into third place at the Eastleigh parliamentary byelection last year. But Christina Simmonds, the Ukip branch chairman, said she believed her party's core messages on Europe and immigration were making sense here. "We're finding people are coming to us rather us having to go to them. We're hoping for a couple of seats or more."	The party is campaigning hard on the sticky issue of building homes on greenfield sites, as it did when it beat the Conservatives into third place at the Eastleigh parliamentary byelection last year. But Christina Simmonds, the Ukip branch chairman, said she believed her party's core messages on Europe and immigration were making sense here. "We're finding people are coming to us rather us having to go to them. We're hoping for a couple of seats or more."
The Conservative party has produced a glossy manifesto outlining cost-cutting policies, including reducing the number of councillors and moving the authority out of its Grade II-listed municipal offices in the town centre. It also claims it will reduce council tax by 3%. "I think we can take seats off the Lib Dems this year," said the Tory group leader, Rob Garnham. "They are running out of ideas and looking tired."	The Conservative party has produced a glossy manifesto outlining cost-cutting policies, including reducing the number of councillors and moving the authority out of its Grade II-listed municipal offices in the town centre. It also claims it will reduce council tax by 3%. "I think we can take seats off the Lib Dems this year," said the Tory group leader, Rob Garnham. "They are running out of ideas and looking tired."
But Lib Dem campaigns assistant Andy Williams was having none of it. "It's all about getting out there, interacting with the voters, talking to them. We're good at that. People won't vote for you if they don't know you. It's bloody obvious really."	But Lib Dem campaigns assistant Andy Williams was having none of it. "It's all about getting out there, interacting with the voters, talking to them. We're good at that. People won't vote for you if they don't know you. It's bloody obvious really."
Parties of government	Parties of government
National governing parties are traditionally most likely to suffer in local elections where their grassroots activists – the councillors – pay the price for their leaders' decisions. The Conservatives are nervously awaiting the outcome of the elections not just because of Labour advances, but because of the Ukip challenge that is likely to define this election round.	National governing parties are traditionally most likely to suffer in local elections where their grassroots activists – the councillors – pay the price for their leaders' decisions. The Conservatives are nervously awaiting the outcome of the elections not just because of Labour advances, but because of the Ukip challenge that is likely to define this election round.
The borough of Barnet, in suburban north London, has a history of being a base for Conservative radicals, including Margaret Thatcher's tenure as MP for the now abolished Finchley constituency. Losing Barnet to Labour would be a harsh blow.	The borough of Barnet, in suburban north London, has a history of being a base for Conservative radicals, including Margaret Thatcher's tenure as MP for the now abolished Finchley constituency. Losing Barnet to Labour would be a harsh blow.
The current Tory-controlled council found fame five years ago as the "easyCouncil" thanks to a service-provision model likened to those of budget airlines. Despite angry opposition, the Conservatives increased their majority by one seat at the last local election in 2010. This time, though, Labour thinks it could win Barnet outright for the first time.	The current Tory-controlled council found fame five years ago as the "easyCouncil" thanks to a service-provision model likened to those of budget airlines. Despite angry opposition, the Conservatives increased their majority by one seat at the last local election in 2010. This time, though, Labour thinks it could win Barnet outright for the first time.
Labour strategists say that a combination of demographic shifts, notably a rising proportion of black and ethnic minority residents; cost of living concerns, including housing; and mobilisations against a major privatisation programme, mean they could win the town hall. Throw in Ukip candidates seeking eight of the 63 seats and the possible vulnerability of the three Lib Dem incumbents in the borough's southern tip and the conditions may exist for a big, symbolic triumph.	Labour strategists say that a combination of demographic shifts, notably a rising proportion of black and ethnic minority residents; cost of living concerns, including housing; and mobilisations against a major privatisation programme, mean they could win the town hall. Throw in Ukip candidates seeking eight of the 63 seats and the possible vulnerability of the three Lib Dem incumbents in the borough's southern tip and the conditions may exist for a big, symbolic triumph.
Voters' response to the effects of the easyCouncil scheme – officially called the One Barnet "transformation programme" – may be crucial in this green and varied part of outer London, whose signature architecture is the inter-war semi-detached, but where shopping streets dotted with betting and pound shops co-exist with golf courses and leafy avenues of mock-Tudor affluence.	Voters' response to the effects of the easyCouncil scheme – officially called the One Barnet "transformation programme" – may be crucial in this green and varied part of outer London, whose signature architecture is the inter-war semi-detached, but where shopping streets dotted with betting and pound shops co-exist with golf courses and leafy avenues of mock-Tudor affluence.
At the heart of One Barnet are long-term deals with the large outsourcing firm Capita for the running of an array of council services – from planning to highways, benefits advice to IT – which, in some eyes, is killing off local government as Britain knows it.	At the heart of One Barnet are long-term deals with the large outsourcing firm Capita for the running of an array of council services – from planning to highways, benefits advice to IT – which, in some eyes, is killing off local government as Britain knows it.
The council says One Barnet will eventually produce savings of £165m, describing this as a value-for-money win in the context of slashed funding from national government. Its leader, Richard Cornelius, points to a 1% council-tax cut as a resulting benefit.	The council says One Barnet will eventually produce savings of £165m, describing this as a value-for-money win in the context of slashed funding from national government. Its leader, Richard Cornelius, points to a 1% council-tax cut as a resulting benefit.
But a coalition of bloggers, community campaigners and Labour and union activists are claiming, under the banner of the Barnet Alliance for Public Services, that "Capitaville" is a mess with which even Tory sympathisers are displeased.	But a coalition of bloggers, community campaigners and Labour and union activists are claiming, under the banner of the Barnet Alliance for Public Services, that "Capitaville" is a mess with which even Tory sympathisers are displeased.