Inmate numbers predicted to soar

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The number of prisoners in Scotland's jails is expected to increase to 8,500 within the next decade, according to newly published official projections.

Predictions have been revised after a year of record highs, with the average daily prison population reaching 7,183.

Earlier this year the daily prison population hit a record high, with 7,497 people behind bars on 28 August.

The Scottish Prison Service (SPS) figures put the increase down to a rise in the number of remand prisoners.

These have increased to 1,567 a day in 2006/07 compared with 1,242 the previous year.

The figures would have been even higher but for an increase in the number of prisoners released on home detention curfew, which has leapt from 92 in July 2006 to the current average of 300 a day.

Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill said the figures painted an "alarming picture" and that action was being taken to address the problem.

I do not believe that sending an offender to prison for a short time is the best way to deal with minor offending Kenny MacAskillJustice secretary

He added that an independent Prisons Commission had been set up to look at the issue and that the range of community penalties for minor offenders was currently under review.

"I do not believe that sending an offender to prison for a short time is the best way to deal with minor offending," Mr MacAskill said.

"Far better that they are given the opportunity to repay their community for their wrongdoing. That is the smart option."

He said this approach freed up valuable prisons resources to deal with the serious and high-risk offenders who should be in prison.

Projections made last year estimated that the prison population would reach 8,200 in 2015/16.

But this year's increase has seen that figure revised to 8,400 rising to 8,500 the following year.

Electronic tag

The new projections are based on the number of prisoners on home detention curfew, a system of early release monitored by electronic tag available to low risk prisoners, remaining at a constant 300.

An SPS spokesman said prison population projections helped the service in planning prison accommodation.

"They have already informed investment in the prison estate as well as a new prison in Addiewell, West Lothian, which is due to open in early 2009.

"A further two prisons have been announced, one on the former site of HMP Low Moss and one in the Peterhead area."

Tory justice spokesman Bill Aitken said: "Sadly, just like the last administration, it [the SNP government] seems more interested in emptying our jails than in protecting the public."