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China’s Exports and Imports Return to Slight Growth China’s Trade Figures Return to Slight Growth
(about 7 hours later)
BEIJING — China’s exports and imports returned to slight growth last month as orders to the United States and the European Union surged, offering some positive signals after a weaker-than-expected start to 2014.BEIJING — China’s exports and imports returned to slight growth last month as orders to the United States and the European Union surged, offering some positive signals after a weaker-than-expected start to 2014.
Analysts said the trade picture was better in April than the data released on Thursday suggested, because export figures last year had been inflated by fake invoices before a midyear crackdown by the authorities.Analysts said the trade picture was better in April than the data released on Thursday suggested, because export figures last year had been inflated by fake invoices before a midyear crackdown by the authorities.
“The external demand side is not such a big problem for China now, because the genuine recovery is there,” said Wei Yao, the China economist at Société Générale in Hong Kong. “This is actually offering some support to China’s growth.”“The external demand side is not such a big problem for China now, because the genuine recovery is there,” said Wei Yao, the China economist at Société Générale in Hong Kong. “This is actually offering some support to China’s growth.”
Exports rose 0.9 percent in April, from a year earlier, after declines of 6.6 percent in March and 18.1 percent in February, the General Administration of Customs said.Exports rose 0.9 percent in April, from a year earlier, after declines of 6.6 percent in March and 18.1 percent in February, the General Administration of Customs said.
Imports grew 0.8 percent from a year earlier, after an 11.3 percent fall in March, to produce a trade surplus of $18.5 billion, more than double the $7.7 billion surplus in March.Imports grew 0.8 percent from a year earlier, after an 11.3 percent fall in March, to produce a trade surplus of $18.5 billion, more than double the $7.7 billion surplus in March.
All three figures beat the median forecasts in a Reuters poll, with exports and imports defying expectations of another fall.
The pickup in trade follows factory surveys for April, after the government unveiled targeted measures to support growth, though both the official and private measures showed export orders had fallen.
Last week, Beijing said it would offer quicker tax rebates for exporters and encourage more imports of high-technology equipment and consumer goods to support trade.
Export growth was largely driven by demand from developed economies. Shipments to the United States jumped 12 percent in April from the period a year earlier. That was a sharp increase from a rise of 1.2 percent in March and a drop of 11.3 percent in February.Export growth was largely driven by demand from developed economies. Shipments to the United States jumped 12 percent in April from the period a year earlier. That was a sharp increase from a rise of 1.2 percent in March and a drop of 11.3 percent in February.
Exports to the European Union surged 15.1 percent last month, compared with 8.8 percent growth in March and a 14.4 percent drop in February.Exports to the European Union surged 15.1 percent last month, compared with 8.8 percent growth in March and a 14.4 percent drop in February.
Emerging markets, including those in Southeast Asia, lagged. Exports to countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 3.8 percent, slowing from double-digit growth in previous months, and shipments to Brazil rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier.Emerging markets, including those in Southeast Asia, lagged. Exports to countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 3.8 percent, slowing from double-digit growth in previous months, and shipments to Brazil rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
The trade figures are expected to more accurately reflect actual activity from midyear, after last year’s crackdown on fake trade receipts, which were used to evade foreign exchange restrictions. Some analysts cautioned that the new data did not mean exports were set for a strong recovery, given the weak demand from emerging economies.
Those fake invoices have created a high base for export figures, which is causing understatement of their performance this year, and the distortion is expected to fade after May.
“China’s trade data show signs of recovery but continue to understate the true health of the export sector,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, the China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.
Some analysts cautioned, however, that that did not mean exports were set for a strong recovery, given the weak demand from emerging economies.
“Trade is still quite weak,” said Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa in Hong Kong.“Trade is still quite weak,” said Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa in Hong Kong.
The government has set a target of 7.5 percent growth for exports and imports this year. China missed its targets of 8 percent in 2013 and 10 percent in 2012, and some analysts and officials say they think the goal this year could also be tough to reach.The government has set a target of 7.5 percent growth for exports and imports this year. China missed its targets of 8 percent in 2013 and 10 percent in 2012, and some analysts and officials say they think the goal this year could also be tough to reach.
China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, grew at its slowest pace in 18 months in the first quarter, and a Reuters poll shows that analysts expect growth of 7.3 percent in 2014, the weakest in 24 years.China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, grew at its slowest pace in 18 months in the first quarter, and a Reuters poll shows that analysts expect growth of 7.3 percent in 2014, the weakest in 24 years.