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Eastern Europe Frets About NATO’s Ability to Curb Russia Eastern Europe Frets About NATO’s Ability to Curb Russia
(about 17 hours later)
OVER CONSTANTA, Romania — High over the Romanian border, a sophisticated NATO surveillance plane kept a close watch on Russian movements below. Its radar screens came alive with a cat-and-mouse game between a Russian surveillance jet buzzing an American guided missile destroyer in the Black Sea and a squadron of NATO fighter jets that chased it away.OVER CONSTANTA, Romania — High over the Romanian border, a sophisticated NATO surveillance plane kept a close watch on Russian movements below. Its radar screens came alive with a cat-and-mouse game between a Russian surveillance jet buzzing an American guided missile destroyer in the Black Sea and a squadron of NATO fighter jets that chased it away.
It was a scene reminiscent of the Cold War, and NATO’s mission was meant to reassure allies that are feeling newly vulnerable to Russian threats after Moscow’s muscular intervention in neighboring Ukraine.It was a scene reminiscent of the Cold War, and NATO’s mission was meant to reassure allies that are feeling newly vulnerable to Russian threats after Moscow’s muscular intervention in neighboring Ukraine.
But it provided little comfort to NATO’s Eastern European members, which are growing increasingly nervous about Russia’s moves and the alliance’s ability, or even willingness, to counter them.But it provided little comfort to NATO’s Eastern European members, which are growing increasingly nervous about Russia’s moves and the alliance’s ability, or even willingness, to counter them.
Today’s NATO, hollowed out by years of European military cuts and deployed mostly to help fight far-off battles in places like Afghanistan and Libya, is no longer as prepared to counter a newly assertive Kremlin, its own leaders acknowledge.Today’s NATO, hollowed out by years of European military cuts and deployed mostly to help fight far-off battles in places like Afghanistan and Libya, is no longer as prepared to counter a newly assertive Kremlin, its own leaders acknowledge.
Western European members of NATO may regard the conflict over Ukraine as remote, an annoying threat to their business ties to Moscow, said Artis Pabriks, who was Latvia’s defense minister until he stepped down in late January. “But for us, it’s not about money, it’s existential,” he said. “You guys may remain with your freedoms, but we may not, so it’s different.”Western European members of NATO may regard the conflict over Ukraine as remote, an annoying threat to their business ties to Moscow, said Artis Pabriks, who was Latvia’s defense minister until he stepped down in late January. “But for us, it’s not about money, it’s existential,” he said. “You guys may remain with your freedoms, but we may not, so it’s different.”
NATO itself is awakening to the altered circumstances. Ukraine, said Maj. Gen. Andrew M. Mueller, who commands NATO’s fleet of 17 surveillance planes, “made us re-emphasize the mission we were built for.”NATO itself is awakening to the altered circumstances. Ukraine, said Maj. Gen. Andrew M. Mueller, who commands NATO’s fleet of 17 surveillance planes, “made us re-emphasize the mission we were built for.”
“We’re augmenting NATO defenses inside NATO,” he added. “We’d gotten away from that a bit with Afghanistan and Libya.”“We’re augmenting NATO defenses inside NATO,” he added. “We’d gotten away from that a bit with Afghanistan and Libya.”
But it will take more than a change of emphasis to re-energize a military alliance that has badly eroded since 1989. The United States is responsible for 75 percent of NATO military spending, and only a handful of European countries meet the alliance’s target of having military budgets of 2 percent of gross domestic product.But it will take more than a change of emphasis to re-energize a military alliance that has badly eroded since 1989. The United States is responsible for 75 percent of NATO military spending, and only a handful of European countries meet the alliance’s target of having military budgets of 2 percent of gross domestic product.
NATO is the front line of response to increased tensions with Russia, but the reluctance of the United States and its Western European allies to beef up the alliance reflects an ambivalence about confronting Russia too frontally, either militarily or through punishing economic sanctions.NATO is the front line of response to increased tensions with Russia, but the reluctance of the United States and its Western European allies to beef up the alliance reflects an ambivalence about confronting Russia too frontally, either militarily or through punishing economic sanctions.
The reluctance is particularly strong among some NATO members, like Spain, Italy, France and Germany, with major business and energy ties to Russia. They would like to see a quick return to the status quo ante.The reluctance is particularly strong among some NATO members, like Spain, Italy, France and Germany, with major business and energy ties to Russia. They would like to see a quick return to the status quo ante.
But in a division reminiscent of the debate over “New Europe” and “Old Europe” during the Bush years, NATO members near the Russian border say that era is over.But in a division reminiscent of the debate over “New Europe” and “Old Europe” during the Bush years, NATO members near the Russian border say that era is over.
“The fundamental understanding of security in Europe has now collapsed,” said President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia. “Everything that has happened since 1989 has been predicated on the fundamental assumption that you don’t change borders by force, and that’s now out the window. Political leaders need to recognize that the old rules no longer apply.”“The fundamental understanding of security in Europe has now collapsed,” said President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia. “Everything that has happened since 1989 has been predicated on the fundamental assumption that you don’t change borders by force, and that’s now out the window. Political leaders need to recognize that the old rules no longer apply.”
The surveillance fleet is owned by NATO, with money and staffing contributions from 17 nations. It is under the direct control of the top NATO commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove of the United States Air Force, who can deploy the planes without consulting with member states. General Breedlove became NATO commander in July, and he has been outspoken about the new threat from Russia.The surveillance fleet is owned by NATO, with money and staffing contributions from 17 nations. It is under the direct control of the top NATO commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove of the United States Air Force, who can deploy the planes without consulting with member states. General Breedlove became NATO commander in July, and he has been outspoken about the new threat from Russia.
The Obama administration has so far rejected suggestions, including some from senior officials in the State Department, to significantly increase the tiny presence of American or NATO troops, or the supplies of military equipment, in countries bordering Russia. The White House does not want NATO to pour fuel on the fire, a senior official said, but it did recently commit American troops for temporary exercises in Poland and the Baltics. But the total number is tiny: about 600 paratroopers normally based in Italy.The Obama administration has so far rejected suggestions, including some from senior officials in the State Department, to significantly increase the tiny presence of American or NATO troops, or the supplies of military equipment, in countries bordering Russia. The White House does not want NATO to pour fuel on the fire, a senior official said, but it did recently commit American troops for temporary exercises in Poland and the Baltics. But the total number is tiny: about 600 paratroopers normally based in Italy.
“This is very symbolic reassurance, very carefully calibrated to ratchet up if need be,” said Sean Kay, a former Pentagon adviser on NATO. Washington does not want to feed the notion of the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, that the West is determined to encroach on traditional Russian turf, he said. But some argue that for Washington to do so little is an invitation to Mr. Putin to do more.“This is very symbolic reassurance, very carefully calibrated to ratchet up if need be,” said Sean Kay, a former Pentagon adviser on NATO. Washington does not want to feed the notion of the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, that the West is determined to encroach on traditional Russian turf, he said. But some argue that for Washington to do so little is an invitation to Mr. Putin to do more.
NATO has refrained from deploying substantial numbers of troops in member states bordering Russia, in accordance with a unilateral promise made to Moscow in 1997, when Russia was behaving more cooperatively.NATO has refrained from deploying substantial numbers of troops in member states bordering Russia, in accordance with a unilateral promise made to Moscow in 1997, when Russia was behaving more cooperatively.
For the same reason, although the Baltic nations have been full members of NATO since 2005, there was no military contingency plan to defend them until 2009, after Russia’s war with Georgia. Now, with the annexation of Crimea and the threat to eastern Ukraine, many in Northern Europe believe that posture must change.For the same reason, although the Baltic nations have been full members of NATO since 2005, there was no military contingency plan to defend them until 2009, after Russia’s war with Georgia. Now, with the annexation of Crimea and the threat to eastern Ukraine, many in Northern Europe believe that posture must change.
The euro currency crisis and weak growth have hit Europe hard, however, making budget cuts widespread, with military spending among the easiest areas to cut politically.The euro currency crisis and weak growth have hit Europe hard, however, making budget cuts widespread, with military spending among the easiest areas to cut politically.
In 2013, among the few NATO countries that met the 2 percent target, according to NATO figures, were the United States, at 4.1 percent, and Britain, at 2.4 percent. Estonia was at 2 percent, and Greece, though debt-saddled, spent 2.3 percent. France was at 1.9 percent, and Turkey and Poland were at 1.8 percent, while Italy spent only 1.2 percent of its G.D.P.In 2013, among the few NATO countries that met the 2 percent target, according to NATO figures, were the United States, at 4.1 percent, and Britain, at 2.4 percent. Estonia was at 2 percent, and Greece, though debt-saddled, spent 2.3 percent. France was at 1.9 percent, and Turkey and Poland were at 1.8 percent, while Italy spent only 1.2 percent of its G.D.P.
Two new members, Spain and Hungary, along with two apparently vulnerable Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania, spent less than 1 percent. Even wealthy Germany spent only 1.3 percent. Over all, European members of NATO were at 1.6 percent. Spain and Hungary, along with two apparently vulnerable Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania, spent less than 1 percent. Even wealthy Germany spent only 1.3 percent. Over all, European members of NATO were at 1.6 percent.
But pleas for more spending may fall, as usual, on ears otherwise occupied with domestic budget constraints.But pleas for more spending may fall, as usual, on ears otherwise occupied with domestic budget constraints.
NATO has been trying to respond, Mr. Ilves, the Estonian president, said. “Everything that has been said sounds good, and NATO has announced various air and sea measures,” he said. “But when it actually starts happening, it will sound and look even better.”NATO has been trying to respond, Mr. Ilves, the Estonian president, said. “Everything that has been said sounds good, and NATO has announced various air and sea measures,” he said. “But when it actually starts happening, it will sound and look even better.”
What countries like the Baltic States, Poland and Romania need are “boots on the ground, a presence in the region,” Mr. Ilves said, as well as air defenses, not just air policing.What countries like the Baltic States, Poland and Romania need are “boots on the ground, a presence in the region,” Mr. Ilves said, as well as air defenses, not just air policing.
Despite the recent statements from NATO, Mr. Pabriks, the former Latvian defense minister, said, “the Polish and Baltic publics are not certain.”Despite the recent statements from NATO, Mr. Pabriks, the former Latvian defense minister, said, “the Polish and Baltic publics are not certain.”
“Compared to what Russia has been building up on our borders,” he added, “we are a demilitarized zone, and that will have to change.”“Compared to what Russia has been building up on our borders,” he added, “we are a demilitarized zone, and that will have to change.”
No one doubts NATO’s capacity to stand up to Russia militarily. But if Mr. Putin sees opinion in NATO as “divided or undecided about whether Latvia’s security has the same value as Germany’s, then he may challenge it,” Mr. Pabriks said.No one doubts NATO’s capacity to stand up to Russia militarily. But if Mr. Putin sees opinion in NATO as “divided or undecided about whether Latvia’s security has the same value as Germany’s, then he may challenge it,” Mr. Pabriks said.
“If he does, and NATO doesn’t respond in force, NATO is dead,” he added. “We have to give a clear signal that this is a red line, not a red line as in Syria, but that if you cross this line we will shoot.”“If he does, and NATO doesn’t respond in force, NATO is dead,” he added. “We have to give a clear signal that this is a red line, not a red line as in Syria, but that if you cross this line we will shoot.”
Mr. Pabriks noted that five minesweepers — two from Norway and one each from the Netherlands, Belgium and Estonia — would conduct an exercise in the Baltic Sea until the end of May. “They’re not battleships, of course. It’s clearly a signal, but obviously not enough.”Mr. Pabriks noted that five minesweepers — two from Norway and one each from the Netherlands, Belgium and Estonia — would conduct an exercise in the Baltic Sea until the end of May. “They’re not battleships, of course. It’s clearly a signal, but obviously not enough.”
General Mueller, the surveillance fleet commander, said he was facing staffing cuts despite the re-emergence of the Russian threat. “The challenge is to get the European nations to spend the money on defense,” he said. “We feel it today. This incident has made people step back and think that those who were pushing to spend money were more farsighted, and maybe we should listen to them.”General Mueller, the surveillance fleet commander, said he was facing staffing cuts despite the re-emergence of the Russian threat. “The challenge is to get the European nations to spend the money on defense,” he said. “We feel it today. This incident has made people step back and think that those who were pushing to spend money were more farsighted, and maybe we should listen to them.”
Capt. Bogdan Drelciuc, 32, one of two Romanians on board the surveillance plane, returned early from a rotation in Afghanistan, after the Ukraine crisis began, to help coordinate these new flights with the Romanian military. “I think my country is concerned, for sure,” said the captain, who was 7 in 1989 when Communism collapsed. “We have a direct border with Ukraine, and we requested NATO support, and why not?”Capt. Bogdan Drelciuc, 32, one of two Romanians on board the surveillance plane, returned early from a rotation in Afghanistan, after the Ukraine crisis began, to help coordinate these new flights with the Romanian military. “I think my country is concerned, for sure,” said the captain, who was 7 in 1989 when Communism collapsed. “We have a direct border with Ukraine, and we requested NATO support, and why not?”