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Election in Hungary Tests Nation’s Tilt to the Right Election in Hungary Tests Nation’s Tilt to the Right
(5 months later)
BUDAPEST — While Europe was enmeshed in its years of euro crisis, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s popular but controversial prime minister, tilted his country’s politics rightward, to a chorus of foreign and domestic criticism but little censure from the European Union. BUDAPEST — While Europe was enmeshed in its years of euro crisis, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s popular but controversial prime minister, tilted his country’s politics rightward, to a chorus of foreign and domestic criticism but little censure from the European Union.
On Sunday, Hungarians hold elections that will show to what degree they support their prime minister, whose victory is in little doubt, and whether they would like Hungary to veer even further right, embracing more solidly the strains of anti-Semitism and nationalist populism of the Jobbik Party.On Sunday, Hungarians hold elections that will show to what degree they support their prime minister, whose victory is in little doubt, and whether they would like Hungary to veer even further right, embracing more solidly the strains of anti-Semitism and nationalist populism of the Jobbik Party.
Mr. Orban, 50, has played a skilled mix of populism and pocketbook in the run-up to Sunday’s elections, combining touches of egoism and extravagance — a new subway line that opened in Budapest has a station where his name is carved in stone on one platform — with feel-good measures like a broad cut in utility bills, a reduction in income taxes and job creation.Mr. Orban, 50, has played a skilled mix of populism and pocketbook in the run-up to Sunday’s elections, combining touches of egoism and extravagance — a new subway line that opened in Budapest has a station where his name is carved in stone on one platform — with feel-good measures like a broad cut in utility bills, a reduction in income taxes and job creation.
Opinion polls predict that the current governing coalition of his conservative Fidesz Party and a small Christian Democratic Party will garner 30 percent to 40 percent of the vote. The next closest contenders, Jobbik and a quarrelsome alliance of leftist parties, are predicted to get 10 percent to 20 percent each.Opinion polls predict that the current governing coalition of his conservative Fidesz Party and a small Christian Democratic Party will garner 30 percent to 40 percent of the vote. The next closest contenders, Jobbik and a quarrelsome alliance of leftist parties, are predicted to get 10 percent to 20 percent each.
Uncertainty over the exact outcome is sizable, given a large number of undecided voters and a move by Mr. Orban that has allowed some 200,000 ethnic Hungarians living beyond the country’s borders — mostly in Romania and Serbia, which have similar rules for their ethnic kin abroad — to claim citizenship and vote by mail.Uncertainty over the exact outcome is sizable, given a large number of undecided voters and a move by Mr. Orban that has allowed some 200,000 ethnic Hungarians living beyond the country’s borders — mostly in Romania and Serbia, which have similar rules for their ethnic kin abroad — to claim citizenship and vote by mail.
Mr. Orban has laid out no program — beyond himself — but seems confident of victory. “We will continue,” he said in a speech last month. Or rather, “speaking more modestly, we would like to continue the policies started in the last four years.”Mr. Orban has laid out no program — beyond himself — but seems confident of victory. “We will continue,” he said in a speech last month. Or rather, “speaking more modestly, we would like to continue the policies started in the last four years.”
To his supporters, those policies include ridding Hungary of the corruption of the leftist government that Fidesz trounced in a landslide victory in 2010, winning two-thirds of Parliament’s 386 seats. Public finances have stabilized, and Hungary met the European Union goal of keeping the budget deficit under 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2012 and 2013.To his supporters, those policies include ridding Hungary of the corruption of the leftist government that Fidesz trounced in a landslide victory in 2010, winning two-thirds of Parliament’s 386 seats. Public finances have stabilized, and Hungary met the European Union goal of keeping the budget deficit under 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2012 and 2013.
To his detractors, Mr. Orban has taken Hungary too far right, espousing nationalism and, while condemning anti-Semitism, condoning commemorations of Miklos Horthy, the admiral who led Hungary during World War II and oversaw the deportation of 437,000 Jews to Nazi death camps.To his detractors, Mr. Orban has taken Hungary too far right, espousing nationalism and, while condemning anti-Semitism, condoning commemorations of Miklos Horthy, the admiral who led Hungary during World War II and oversaw the deportation of 437,000 Jews to Nazi death camps.
Mired in financial and currency crises, the European Union paid little overt attention to the slide right by Hungary, which joined the union in 2005 with other former Soviet bloc nations. Eventually, in 2012, the European Union did issue sanctions against Hungary, but for its excessive deficit, in a move seen more as rap on the knuckles than an energetic message to Mr. Orban to change course.Mired in financial and currency crises, the European Union paid little overt attention to the slide right by Hungary, which joined the union in 2005 with other former Soviet bloc nations. Eventually, in 2012, the European Union did issue sanctions against Hungary, but for its excessive deficit, in a move seen more as rap on the knuckles than an energetic message to Mr. Orban to change course.
Independent analysts say that Mr. Orban’s recent economic measures — coupled with redistricting that will reduce Parliament to 199 seats — may well bolster his vote share on Sunday.Independent analysts say that Mr. Orban’s recent economic measures — coupled with redistricting that will reduce Parliament to 199 seats — may well bolster his vote share on Sunday.
“If I have to cite one reason for which Fidesz can again win elections, it is the cuts in utility bills,” said Peter Kreko of Political Capital, a nongovernmental Budapest research group.“If I have to cite one reason for which Fidesz can again win elections, it is the cuts in utility bills,” said Peter Kreko of Political Capital, a nongovernmental Budapest research group.
He noted that the prime minister and his party also faced little serious criticism from the news media. State media are under firm government control, and journalists in many private outlets censor themselves for fear of running afoul of pro-Fidesz owners and the government.He noted that the prime minister and his party also faced little serious criticism from the news media. State media are under firm government control, and journalists in many private outlets censor themselves for fear of running afoul of pro-Fidesz owners and the government.
“They aren’t afraid of a confrontation with the press or society,” Mr. Kreko said. Mr. Orban’s fighting talk in the face of pressure from foreign capital, international media or the European Union has only bolstered his standing, he said.“They aren’t afraid of a confrontation with the press or society,” Mr. Kreko said. Mr. Orban’s fighting talk in the face of pressure from foreign capital, international media or the European Union has only bolstered his standing, he said.
As Mr. Orban told supporters in February: “Let’s show again, in April, that we are strong and united. Let’s show that we are not trying to please anybody. Let’s show that we will go our own way.”As Mr. Orban told supporters in February: “Let’s show again, in April, that we are strong and united. Let’s show that we are not trying to please anybody. Let’s show that we will go our own way.”
By contrast, the leftist alliance appears disunited. “There is a very strong, unifying party on one side, and no strong candidate on the other,” said Julia Lakatos of the Centre for Fair Political Analysis, another independent analysts’ group. “They started very late, teamed up very late and had many internal conflicts.”By contrast, the leftist alliance appears disunited. “There is a very strong, unifying party on one side, and no strong candidate on the other,” said Julia Lakatos of the Centre for Fair Political Analysis, another independent analysts’ group. “They started very late, teamed up very late and had many internal conflicts.”
Attila Mesterhazy of the Hungarian Socialist Party, leader of the leftist alliance, has argued that voters face a choice not just between two parties, but also between two world views.Attila Mesterhazy of the Hungarian Socialist Party, leader of the leftist alliance, has argued that voters face a choice not just between two parties, but also between two world views.
But the leftist grouping has also been hurt by a recent tax evasion scandal around a former Socialist — reminding Hungarians of the widespread corruption under two consecutive Socialist governments before 2010.But the leftist grouping has also been hurt by a recent tax evasion scandal around a former Socialist — reminding Hungarians of the widespread corruption under two consecutive Socialist governments before 2010.
To critics from Budapest to Brussels, Mr. Orban and his government have used their supermajority in Parliament to curb controls on government by pushing through a new Constitution, and placing party loyalists in the judiciary, the media watchdog and the state audits office.To critics from Budapest to Brussels, Mr. Orban and his government have used their supermajority in Parliament to curb controls on government by pushing through a new Constitution, and placing party loyalists in the judiciary, the media watchdog and the state audits office.
Miklos Ligety, head of legal affairs at Transparency International Hungary, the national branch of the international nongovernmental group, said that Mr. Orban’s government “seeks to make decisions single-handedly and skirt any obstacles to these decisions.”Miklos Ligety, head of legal affairs at Transparency International Hungary, the national branch of the international nongovernmental group, said that Mr. Orban’s government “seeks to make decisions single-handedly and skirt any obstacles to these decisions.”
While criticizing the previous leftist government, he also said Fidesz had so many advantages in the election campaign — for example, in terms of favorable media coverage — that the overall effort should be judged “free, but not fair.”While criticizing the previous leftist government, he also said Fidesz had so many advantages in the election campaign — for example, in terms of favorable media coverage — that the overall effort should be judged “free, but not fair.”
Perhaps the biggest worry facing Mr. Orban is that undecided voters may turn to the radical right. Jobbik, which holds 47 seats in Parliament, has earned notoriety because of its paramilitary arm, along with its anti-Roma and anti-Semitic views.Perhaps the biggest worry facing Mr. Orban is that undecided voters may turn to the radical right. Jobbik, which holds 47 seats in Parliament, has earned notoriety because of its paramilitary arm, along with its anti-Roma and anti-Semitic views.
Like other far-right parties in Europe, notably Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, Jobbik has curbed its rhetoric recently and shown a more moderate face.Like other far-right parties in Europe, notably Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, Jobbik has curbed its rhetoric recently and shown a more moderate face.
Mr. Orban has also sought to blunt Jobbik’s appeal by embracing elements of its program, from special taxes on multinational companies to creation of a day of remembrance for the Treaty of Trianon, the 1920 accord that stripped Hungary of its Hapsburg-era territories and remains a lightning rod for patriotic sentiment.Mr. Orban has also sought to blunt Jobbik’s appeal by embracing elements of its program, from special taxes on multinational companies to creation of a day of remembrance for the Treaty of Trianon, the 1920 accord that stripped Hungary of its Hapsburg-era territories and remains a lightning rod for patriotic sentiment.
“Fundamentally,” said the analyst Mr. Kreko, “public opinion is less in rage, less radical, than in 2010.” But, he added, “unfortunately, the far right’s ideas and supporter base have remained, and anti-Semitism is an increasing issue.”“Fundamentally,” said the analyst Mr. Kreko, “public opinion is less in rage, less radical, than in 2010.” But, he added, “unfortunately, the far right’s ideas and supporter base have remained, and anti-Semitism is an increasing issue.”