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French elections: fed up to the back teeth French elections: fed up to the back teeth
(about 20 hours later)
To indicate that you are fed up or that you've had it up to here with something, the French phrasebook says, hold your hand up to your forehead as if shielding your eyes from the sun, and drag it across your forehead while saying "J'en ai ras le bol!" That, in a nutshell, is what the French have just done in municipal elections which swept the Socialists from power in 155 cities across France, handing a large victory to the mainstream right and a smaller but still significant victory to the National Front.To indicate that you are fed up or that you've had it up to here with something, the French phrasebook says, hold your hand up to your forehead as if shielding your eyes from the sun, and drag it across your forehead while saying "J'en ai ras le bol!" That, in a nutshell, is what the French have just done in municipal elections which swept the Socialists from power in 155 cities across France, handing a large victory to the mainstream right and a smaller but still significant victory to the National Front.
The key actors in these elections, however, were not those who cast their votes but those who didn't. The turnout was the worst in France for 50 years, and the indications are that the majority of those who stayed at home were Socialist voters.The key actors in these elections, however, were not those who cast their votes but those who didn't. The turnout was the worst in France for 50 years, and the indications are that the majority of those who stayed at home were Socialist voters.
Far from being a rightwing "tsunami", the election results were more akin to the effect of a vacuum, with the rightwing parties simply pouring into the hole left by disillusioned leftwing non-voters. There may be a partial exception to this in the case of the National Front, which under Marie Le Pen has shown considerable tactical shrewdness in its choice of urban targets and assiduous cultivation of local activists. But it is going too far to suggest, as she does, that France now has a three-party system. First, the Front's victories were mostly Clochemerle triumphs in little towns. Second, all that the Front has done in recent years is to demonstrate that it can run up toward what seems still to be its fixed limit of between 15% and 20% of the vote. In municipal votes, it can take a few cities, and then lose them, as it did in the 90s, through a combination of extremism and incompetence. Far from being a rightwing "tsunami", the election results were more akin to the effect of a vacuum, with the rightwing parties simply pouring into the hole left by disillusioned leftwing non-voters. There may be a partial exception to this in the case of the National Front, which under Marine Le Pen has shown considerable tactical shrewdness in its choice of urban targets and assiduous cultivation of local activists. But it is going too far to suggest, as she does, that France now has a three-party system. First, the Front's victories were mostly Clochemerle triumphs in little towns. Second, all that the Front has done in recent years is to demonstrate that it can run up toward what seems still to be its fixed limit of between 15% and 20% of the vote. In municipal votes, it can take a few cities, and then lose them, as it did in the 90s, through a combination of extremism and incompetence.
It will face the same test with its trophies this time, and may well once again fail it. We will only know whether the Front has burst through the line between being a nuisance and being a real player when France votes in parliamentary and presidential elections in 2017. The mainstream right will face a similar challenge in providing good local governance in the many more places in which it suddenly finds itself in power. The right in France does not have a good story at the moment, offers only vague or unconvincing alternatives to Socialist party policies, and has serious leadership problems. The French remember, too, how Nicolas Sarkozy also pledged reform and economic growth and then delivered less than he had seemed to promise.It will face the same test with its trophies this time, and may well once again fail it. We will only know whether the Front has burst through the line between being a nuisance and being a real player when France votes in parliamentary and presidential elections in 2017. The mainstream right will face a similar challenge in providing good local governance in the many more places in which it suddenly finds itself in power. The right in France does not have a good story at the moment, offers only vague or unconvincing alternatives to Socialist party policies, and has serious leadership problems. The French remember, too, how Nicolas Sarkozy also pledged reform and economic growth and then delivered less than he had seemed to promise.
Mr Sarkozy became the least popular president in recent history, until he lost that title to François Hollande. Their similar position suggests that France has structural political problems which transcend party differences. One is, as elsewhere in Europe, the near impossibility of combining austerity with a defence of the social state. Another, especially marked in France, is the readiness of citizens in principle to embrace necessary reforms but a refusal in practice to support them when they touch on established rights and privileges.Mr Sarkozy became the least popular president in recent history, until he lost that title to François Hollande. Their similar position suggests that France has structural political problems which transcend party differences. One is, as elsewhere in Europe, the near impossibility of combining austerity with a defence of the social state. Another, especially marked in France, is the readiness of citizens in principle to embrace necessary reforms but a refusal in practice to support them when they touch on established rights and privileges.
Just as Mr Sarkozy did, Mr Hollande has made some progress in changing the ways of both employees and employers. The responsibility pact he persuaded employers and unions to sign, if it genuinely brings jobs, something yet to be proved, could change things for France. But so far unemployment has gone up not down, and growth has been minimal.Just as Mr Sarkozy did, Mr Hollande has made some progress in changing the ways of both employees and employers. The responsibility pact he persuaded employers and unions to sign, if it genuinely brings jobs, something yet to be proved, could change things for France. But so far unemployment has gone up not down, and growth has been minimal.
There remains the question of personality. Mr Hollande has sometimes gained from being seen as rather more normal than most leading politicians, but has as often lost by being tagged as vague and indecisive. One French blog quipped on Tuesday that Mr Hollande, a man lacking the ability to communicate, had now picked a man who has that ability in abundance, a reference to the popular and forceful Manuel Valls, the new prime minister. He has also picked a man who has presidential ambitions of his own. They may thus turn out to be uneasy partners. Their first hurdle will come in the European elections in May. A second big defeat for the Socialists would be bad news for the new team, which does not have much time in which to convince the French that things have really changed.There remains the question of personality. Mr Hollande has sometimes gained from being seen as rather more normal than most leading politicians, but has as often lost by being tagged as vague and indecisive. One French blog quipped on Tuesday that Mr Hollande, a man lacking the ability to communicate, had now picked a man who has that ability in abundance, a reference to the popular and forceful Manuel Valls, the new prime minister. He has also picked a man who has presidential ambitions of his own. They may thus turn out to be uneasy partners. Their first hurdle will come in the European elections in May. A second big defeat for the Socialists would be bad news for the new team, which does not have much time in which to convince the French that things have really changed.
• This article was amended on 2 April 2014. An earlier version referred to Marie, rather than Marine Le Pen.