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| Obama and Allies Seek Firm, United Response as Russia Grips Crimea | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| THE HAGUE — As Russia consolidated its hold on Crimea, raising its flag over seized military bases and detaining ousted Ukrainian commanders on Sunday, President Obama and his international allies prepared to meet here in an effort to develop a strong, united response despite their diverging interests in dealing with the Kremlin. | THE HAGUE — As Russia consolidated its hold on Crimea, raising its flag over seized military bases and detaining ousted Ukrainian commanders on Sunday, President Obama and his international allies prepared to meet here in an effort to develop a strong, united response despite their diverging interests in dealing with the Kremlin. |
| After Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the lightning annexation of the peninsula by President Vladimir V. Putin last week, Mr. Obama’s decision to convene the leaders of several European countries, along with Canada and Japan, brought the nations — once again the Group of 7, without Russia — together for the first time since the crisis in Ukraine upended the stability and security of Europe. | After Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the lightning annexation of the peninsula by President Vladimir V. Putin last week, Mr. Obama’s decision to convene the leaders of several European countries, along with Canada and Japan, brought the nations — once again the Group of 7, without Russia — together for the first time since the crisis in Ukraine upended the stability and security of Europe. |
| Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, acknowledged that the president’s weeklong trip, including a meeting with Pope Francis on Thursday and a stop in Saudi Arabia on Friday, would be overshadowed by Ukraine and the need to press for Western unity. She expressed confidence that the meeting here on Monday would “deepen” coordination. | Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, acknowledged that the president’s weeklong trip, including a meeting with Pope Francis on Thursday and a stop in Saudi Arabia on Friday, would be overshadowed by Ukraine and the need to press for Western unity. She expressed confidence that the meeting here on Monday would “deepen” coordination. |
| But as the United States ratchets up economic sanctions against Russia, it may be difficult for Mr. Obama to bring along European allies, who are more economically intertwined with Russia and ended their own summit meeting Friday with no detailed mention of tougher sanctions. | But as the United States ratchets up economic sanctions against Russia, it may be difficult for Mr. Obama to bring along European allies, who are more economically intertwined with Russia and ended their own summit meeting Friday with no detailed mention of tougher sanctions. |
| A central question seems to be whether Western unity is more than a veneer of principled language and so-far mild sanctions, which, in the absence of any hint of a military response, has made the West seem powerless. | A central question seems to be whether Western unity is more than a veneer of principled language and so-far mild sanctions, which, in the absence of any hint of a military response, has made the West seem powerless. |
| “It will expose the limitations within the European Union,” said Michael J. Geary, an assistant professor of modern Europe at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, noting that the bloc needs consensus among 28 member states that have disparate ways of dealing with Russia. | “It will expose the limitations within the European Union,” said Michael J. Geary, an assistant professor of modern Europe at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, noting that the bloc needs consensus among 28 member states that have disparate ways of dealing with Russia. |
| NATO and the European Union have been shocked but seem galvanized by Russia’s abrupt abandonment of the rules of cooperation and territorial integrity that have governed East-West relations for decades. On Sunday, NATO’s top military commander warned that Russia had a “very, very sizable and very, very ready” force on Ukraine’s eastern border, Reuters reported. | NATO and the European Union have been shocked but seem galvanized by Russia’s abrupt abandonment of the rules of cooperation and territorial integrity that have governed East-West relations for decades. On Sunday, NATO’s top military commander warned that Russia had a “very, very sizable and very, very ready” force on Ukraine’s eastern border, Reuters reported. |
| As the West has struggled to respond cohesively, Russia has moved assertively to establish control in Crimea. On Sunday, a base in Belbek was eerily quiet just 24 hours after it was seized in a dramatic incursion by Russian special-forces troops and two armored vehicles. | As the West has struggled to respond cohesively, Russia has moved assertively to establish control in Crimea. On Sunday, a base in Belbek was eerily quiet just 24 hours after it was seized in a dramatic incursion by Russian special-forces troops and two armored vehicles. |
| A commander of the base, Yuli Mamchur, was apparently being held along with other base leaders in Sevastopol, somewhere near the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, said his wife, Larisa Mamchur. She added that most Ukrainian personnel there had been sent home to pack and prepare for relocation to mainland Ukraine. | A commander of the base, Yuli Mamchur, was apparently being held along with other base leaders in Sevastopol, somewhere near the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, said his wife, Larisa Mamchur. She added that most Ukrainian personnel there had been sent home to pack and prepare for relocation to mainland Ukraine. |
| “The people are crying,” Ms. Mamchur said. “They are sad.” | “The people are crying,” Ms. Mamchur said. “They are sad.” |
| Although there were still scattered pockets of Ukrainian resistance across the peninsula on Sunday, it was clear Russia was quickly locking down. Ukrainian military officials in Crimea said that bases continued to fall and that the Russian military had also detained a navy captain from a base near Sevastopol. | Although there were still scattered pockets of Ukrainian resistance across the peninsula on Sunday, it was clear Russia was quickly locking down. Ukrainian military officials in Crimea said that bases continued to fall and that the Russian military had also detained a navy captain from a base near Sevastopol. |
| Even as Russian forces were storming two bases in Crimea on Saturday, the Kremlin agreed to allow monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to start a six-month mission in Ukraine — though not in Crimea. The move seemed intended to ease fears that Russian forces would push into eastern or southern Ukraine. | Even as Russian forces were storming two bases in Crimea on Saturday, the Kremlin agreed to allow monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to start a six-month mission in Ukraine — though not in Crimea. The move seemed intended to ease fears that Russian forces would push into eastern or southern Ukraine. |
| But Mr. Putin’s recent record of first coy, then bold moves has put Mr. Obama and his European allies on guard, even as they have struggled to coordinate. Caught flat-footed by the initial infiltration of Crimea, the United States seems increasingly alarmed about the 20,000 Russian troops that have massed on the border with eastern Ukraine. | But Mr. Putin’s recent record of first coy, then bold moves has put Mr. Obama and his European allies on guard, even as they have struggled to coordinate. Caught flat-footed by the initial infiltration of Crimea, the United States seems increasingly alarmed about the 20,000 Russian troops that have massed on the border with eastern Ukraine. |
| The other members of the Group of 7 economic partnership hardly have interests identical with those of the United States, and in many ways they are divided even among themselves, complicating any effort to draw a firmer line with Moscow. | The other members of the Group of 7 economic partnership hardly have interests identical with those of the United States, and in many ways they are divided even among themselves, complicating any effort to draw a firmer line with Moscow. |
| Mr. Obama’s sanctions, announced last week, were aimed at sowing pain among members of a Russian economic and political elite who owe their wealth and loyalties to Mr. Putin. But the sanctions were also targeted to minimize disruption to the global economy and to avoid further jeopardizing already meek Russian cooperation on issues like the war in Syria, Iran’s nuclear program, the Middle East and North Korea. | Mr. Obama’s sanctions, announced last week, were aimed at sowing pain among members of a Russian economic and political elite who owe their wealth and loyalties to Mr. Putin. But the sanctions were also targeted to minimize disruption to the global economy and to avoid further jeopardizing already meek Russian cooperation on issues like the war in Syria, Iran’s nuclear program, the Middle East and North Korea. |
| For European countries, the risk of wider conflict with Russia is even graver. Britain hosts Russian billionaires and their money; Germany gets about one-third of its energy from Russia and sells it machinery and cars; France is in the process of delivering sophisticated attack ships to the Kremlin; and Italy depends on Russia for some 28 percent of its energy. | For European countries, the risk of wider conflict with Russia is even graver. Britain hosts Russian billionaires and their money; Germany gets about one-third of its energy from Russia and sells it machinery and cars; France is in the process of delivering sophisticated attack ships to the Kremlin; and Italy depends on Russia for some 28 percent of its energy. |
| Canada’s prime minister, Stephen Harper, on Saturday became the first Group of 7 leader to visit Ukraine since the crisis erupted. Japan has an interest in whether China — whose president, Xi Jinping, began his first European tour this weekend — draws closer to Moscow or even secures Russian energy supplies in the event that the Kremlin cuts off Western Europe. | Canada’s prime minister, Stephen Harper, on Saturday became the first Group of 7 leader to visit Ukraine since the crisis erupted. Japan has an interest in whether China — whose president, Xi Jinping, began his first European tour this weekend — draws closer to Moscow or even secures Russian energy supplies in the event that the Kremlin cuts off Western Europe. |
| While there is scant appetite for a military response, the newer members of NATO — former Warsaw Pact members like Poland, or the three ex-Soviet Baltic states — have anxiously sought reaffirmation that the alliance will protect them if, for example, Russia expands its operations in Crimea. | While there is scant appetite for a military response, the newer members of NATO — former Warsaw Pact members like Poland, or the three ex-Soviet Baltic states — have anxiously sought reaffirmation that the alliance will protect them if, for example, Russia expands its operations in Crimea. |
| Crisis scenarios abound in a Europe alarmed by the Kremlin’s use of military muscle. Even normally dispassionate analysts have produced theories ranging from a thorough dismemberment of Moldova — which is already split by the pro-Kremlin enclave of Transnistria — to Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine. | Crisis scenarios abound in a Europe alarmed by the Kremlin’s use of military muscle. Even normally dispassionate analysts have produced theories ranging from a thorough dismemberment of Moldova — which is already split by the pro-Kremlin enclave of Transnistria — to Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine. |
| One of many complicating factors is the state of Ukraine itself. Since the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine has failed to muster strong armed forces — a point underscored when its troops abandoned military bases in Crimea last week. | One of many complicating factors is the state of Ukraine itself. Since the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine has failed to muster strong armed forces — a point underscored when its troops abandoned military bases in Crimea last week. |
| The acting government in Kiev has also been slow to reach out to Russian speakers and specifically to the East. The interim prime minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, did give a speech in Russian last week offering broad autonomy to Ukraine’s eastern regions, which are vital to the country’s weak economy, even with rundown coal mines and outmoded factories. | The acting government in Kiev has also been slow to reach out to Russian speakers and specifically to the East. The interim prime minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, did give a speech in Russian last week offering broad autonomy to Ukraine’s eastern regions, which are vital to the country’s weak economy, even with rundown coal mines and outmoded factories. |
| A special role in the crisis has fallen to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, and to Chancellor Angela Merkel, a Russian speaker who is familiar with Mr. Putin and in a stronger position at home than other leaders. | A special role in the crisis has fallen to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, and to Chancellor Angela Merkel, a Russian speaker who is familiar with Mr. Putin and in a stronger position at home than other leaders. |
| “Merkel certainly gets it,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a nongovernmental group based in London. | “Merkel certainly gets it,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a nongovernmental group based in London. |
| Ms. Merkel has been in power for nine years, leads a coalition that unites center-left and center-right, and is a proven crisis manager, said Karl-Heinz Kamp of the NATO Defense College in Rome. | Ms. Merkel has been in power for nine years, leads a coalition that unites center-left and center-right, and is a proven crisis manager, said Karl-Heinz Kamp of the NATO Defense College in Rome. |
| Notoriously difficult to rattle in public, she has employed unusually clear language in criticizing Mr. Putin, “which means she is really annoyed,” Mr. Kamp said. | Notoriously difficult to rattle in public, she has employed unusually clear language in criticizing Mr. Putin, “which means she is really annoyed,” Mr. Kamp said. |
| Germany seems to be trying, Mr. Kamp said, to differentiate between what might be called “Putin policy” and Russia’s broader interests, which may be interpreted very differently by Mr. Putin’s eventual successor. | Germany seems to be trying, Mr. Kamp said, to differentiate between what might be called “Putin policy” and Russia’s broader interests, which may be interpreted very differently by Mr. Putin’s eventual successor. |
| That long-term perspective alone illustrates how profoundly the events in Ukraine have shifted Western thinking. | That long-term perspective alone illustrates how profoundly the events in Ukraine have shifted Western thinking. |
| Constanze Stelzenmüller, senior trans-Atlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, co-wrote a paper published last week on the crisis and its many implications. “This isn’t going to be easy,” she said over the weekend. “And it’s going to take a long time.” | Constanze Stelzenmüller, senior trans-Atlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, co-wrote a paper published last week on the crisis and its many implications. “This isn’t going to be easy,” she said over the weekend. “And it’s going to take a long time.” |