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| Russian Aggression Puts NATO in Spotlight | |
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| LONDON — Russia’s annexation of Crimea has suddenly revived the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s central role as a counterweight to Moscow, and with it questions about the alliance’s options and ability to act. | LONDON — Russia’s annexation of Crimea has suddenly revived the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s central role as a counterweight to Moscow, and with it questions about the alliance’s options and ability to act. |
| Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. swept into Poland and the Baltic nations on Tuesday with a message of reassurance that their membership in NATO carries the protection of the United States. But given deep Western reluctance to use military force in response to Russia’s aggression, it remains unclear what the alliance’s commitment to collective security means for Ukraine and other nonmembers should President Vladimir V. Putin continue to try to expand Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet bloc. | Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. swept into Poland and the Baltic nations on Tuesday with a message of reassurance that their membership in NATO carries the protection of the United States. But given deep Western reluctance to use military force in response to Russia’s aggression, it remains unclear what the alliance’s commitment to collective security means for Ukraine and other nonmembers should President Vladimir V. Putin continue to try to expand Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet bloc. |
| Ian Bond, the director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform, a London-based research group, said that “Putin has just given NATO something to do, but the question is whether NATO is up to it.” It is now crucial to deter further moves by Mr. Putin, he said. “If Russian forces move into eastern Ukraine,” he said, “what would NATO do?” | Ian Bond, the director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform, a London-based research group, said that “Putin has just given NATO something to do, but the question is whether NATO is up to it.” It is now crucial to deter further moves by Mr. Putin, he said. “If Russian forces move into eastern Ukraine,” he said, “what would NATO do?” |
| The Atlantic alliance was designed, as the old phrase went, to keep the Americans in, the Germans down and the Soviets out. Now, with Mr. Putin acting more like a Cold War antagonist, arguing that Russia has the right to defend Russians everywhere, the United States will be under more pressure to sustain and exhibit military strength in Europe despite the much ballyhooed “pivot to Asia.” | The Atlantic alliance was designed, as the old phrase went, to keep the Americans in, the Germans down and the Soviets out. Now, with Mr. Putin acting more like a Cold War antagonist, arguing that Russia has the right to defend Russians everywhere, the United States will be under more pressure to sustain and exhibit military strength in Europe despite the much ballyhooed “pivot to Asia.” |
| Since the Ukraine crisis began, the United States, in the context of the alliance, has sent more F-16 fighters to Poland and F-15 fighters to the Baltics. It has begun Airborne Warning and Control System, or Awacs, flights over the Polish and Romanian borders, and has ordered more exercises with warships in the Black Sea. | Since the Ukraine crisis began, the United States, in the context of the alliance, has sent more F-16 fighters to Poland and F-15 fighters to the Baltics. It has begun Airborne Warning and Control System, or Awacs, flights over the Polish and Romanian borders, and has ordered more exercises with warships in the Black Sea. |
| “As NATO allies,” President Obama said on Monday, “we have a solemn commitment to our collective defense, and we will uphold that commitment.” | “As NATO allies,” President Obama said on Monday, “we have a solemn commitment to our collective defense, and we will uphold that commitment.” |
| The Ukraine crisis “is a complete reminder of why NATO is useful,” said Jan Techau, director of Carnegie Europe. “If NATO were not in place, this would be a real existential struggle for Eastern and Western Europe, and it isn’t.” | The Ukraine crisis “is a complete reminder of why NATO is useful,” said Jan Techau, director of Carnegie Europe. “If NATO were not in place, this would be a real existential struggle for Eastern and Western Europe, and it isn’t.” |
| Kadri Liik, an Estonian analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said simply: “It’s good to be in NATO right now.” | Kadri Liik, an Estonian analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said simply: “It’s good to be in NATO right now.” |
| Some officials, like Foreign Secretary William Hague of Britain, have said that the alliance “is not looking at military options here, this is not a Crimean War.” But Mr. Bond at the Center for European Reform said he thinks such statements are a mistake. “There’s a risk Putin will listen to that and think moving into eastern Ukraine is as limited as taking over South Ossetia and Abkhazia: a couple weeks of weak sanctions,” he said. | Some officials, like Foreign Secretary William Hague of Britain, have said that the alliance “is not looking at military options here, this is not a Crimean War.” But Mr. Bond at the Center for European Reform said he thinks such statements are a mistake. “There’s a risk Putin will listen to that and think moving into eastern Ukraine is as limited as taking over South Ossetia and Abkhazia: a couple weeks of weak sanctions,” he said. |
| Instead, Mr. Bond said, he would prefer to see active military exercises, and soon. He said that the United States Army in Europe was scheduled to have an exercise in July in Ukraine, “and it might be worth moving that up.” | Instead, Mr. Bond said, he would prefer to see active military exercises, and soon. He said that the United States Army in Europe was scheduled to have an exercise in July in Ukraine, “and it might be worth moving that up.” |
| But reinforced American involvement of that sort is also likely to reduce faltering European efforts, in a time of budget constraints, to create a capable European security and defense identity. | But reinforced American involvement of that sort is also likely to reduce faltering European efforts, in a time of budget constraints, to create a capable European security and defense identity. |
| As NATO’s long involvement in Afghanistan concludes, the renewed emphasis on Russia and Europe is also likely to delay the alliance’s efforts to turn itself into a global actor, able to deal with threats like terrorism and cyberwarfare. Those goals were supposed to be the focus of the next NATO summit meeting in September, in Wales. | As NATO’s long involvement in Afghanistan concludes, the renewed emphasis on Russia and Europe is also likely to delay the alliance’s efforts to turn itself into a global actor, able to deal with threats like terrorism and cyberwarfare. Those goals were supposed to be the focus of the next NATO summit meeting in September, in Wales. |
| A vital task for the Atlantic alliance now is to ensure that Article 5 — its commitment to collective defense — is seen to be firm and strengthened, said Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. That will mean additional deployments and exercises like November’s Steadfast Jazz, the first Article 5 exercise in more than a decade, which took place near Poland and the Baltics. Far more French troops took part than American ones, something that is likely to change for the next exercise, in 2015, scheduled to take place near the Iberian Peninsula. | A vital task for the Atlantic alliance now is to ensure that Article 5 — its commitment to collective defense — is seen to be firm and strengthened, said Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. That will mean additional deployments and exercises like November’s Steadfast Jazz, the first Article 5 exercise in more than a decade, which took place near Poland and the Baltics. Far more French troops took part than American ones, something that is likely to change for the next exercise, in 2015, scheduled to take place near the Iberian Peninsula. |
| “Those allies that joined NATO in the last two decades did so fundamentally because they wanted to be under the security blanket provided by the United States and NATO, and the events of the last three weeks remind them that that’s a good thing,” Mr. Daalder said. “But we have to be very serious about defending these 28 states, and you do it through serious contingency planning, serious exercises like Steadfast Jazz and visible deployments of armed forces.” | “Those allies that joined NATO in the last two decades did so fundamentally because they wanted to be under the security blanket provided by the United States and NATO, and the events of the last three weeks remind them that that’s a good thing,” Mr. Daalder said. “But we have to be very serious about defending these 28 states, and you do it through serious contingency planning, serious exercises like Steadfast Jazz and visible deployments of armed forces.” |
| In recent years, even the commitment of Washington to Article 5 has been questioned as the United States has sought an accommodation with Russia and emphasized a growing threat from China. It was not until 2009, a senior NATO official said, that a war-fighting contingency plan to defend the Baltics was even drawn up, five years after they joined the alliance and were promised collective defense. | In recent years, even the commitment of Washington to Article 5 has been questioned as the United States has sought an accommodation with Russia and emphasized a growing threat from China. It was not until 2009, a senior NATO official said, that a war-fighting contingency plan to defend the Baltics was even drawn up, five years after they joined the alliance and were promised collective defense. |
| Similarly, the second Bush administration pushed a guarantee of alliance membership for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 without, the NATO official said, “seriously thinking through how to defend them.” At an alliance summit in Bucharest, Romania, in 2008, Mr. Putin crashed the dinner and said that he regarded Ukraine as an “artificial country,” warning the alliance that Russia would never accept Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. | Similarly, the second Bush administration pushed a guarantee of alliance membership for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 without, the NATO official said, “seriously thinking through how to defend them.” At an alliance summit in Bucharest, Romania, in 2008, Mr. Putin crashed the dinner and said that he regarded Ukraine as an “artificial country,” warning the alliance that Russia would never accept Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. |
| The Bush proposal was rejected by Germany, France and a divided alliance, and Ukraine and Georgia were simply promised that one day they would be members. | The Bush proposal was rejected by Germany, France and a divided alliance, and Ukraine and Georgia were simply promised that one day they would be members. |
| “It was a mistake to be so hesitant in 2008 and not go in one direction or the other,” Ms. Liik said. “We demonstrated that NATO was not united and provided Russia an opportunity to establish facts on the ground.” | “It was a mistake to be so hesitant in 2008 and not go in one direction or the other,” Ms. Liik said. “We demonstrated that NATO was not united and provided Russia an opportunity to establish facts on the ground.” |
| Since then, there has been no consensus in the alliance about expansion. At the same time, Russia has moved against Western-leaning governments in both Georgia and Ukraine on the pretext of defending ethnic Russians under threat, creating independent states from Georgia and now annexing Crimea, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based. | Since then, there has been no consensus in the alliance about expansion. At the same time, Russia has moved against Western-leaning governments in both Georgia and Ukraine on the pretext of defending ethnic Russians under threat, creating independent states from Georgia and now annexing Crimea, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based. |
| The alliance has never figured out how to handle the countries, like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, stuck between Russia and NATO, said James Goldgeier, dean of the School of International Service at American University. “We never came up with a solution for the insecurity of that area, and we still don’t have one,” he said. “We’ve known for a long time that relations with the United States are not that important to Putin, and making sure Ukraine doesn’t go West is a lot more important to him.” | The alliance has never figured out how to handle the countries, like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, stuck between Russia and NATO, said James Goldgeier, dean of the School of International Service at American University. “We never came up with a solution for the insecurity of that area, and we still don’t have one,” he said. “We’ve known for a long time that relations with the United States are not that important to Putin, and making sure Ukraine doesn’t go West is a lot more important to him.” |
| Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said that “Putin could not have scripted this better for those who believe in the continuing relevance of NATO.” | Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said that “Putin could not have scripted this better for those who believe in the continuing relevance of NATO.” |
| The alliance is coming home after long years in Afghanistan and its limited but vital role in Libya, Mr. Niblett said, amid divisions within the alliance about its role. “But Putin has raised, even more than Slobodan Milosevic in Kosovo, concerns about events that we thought could no longer happen on the European continent,” he said. | The alliance is coming home after long years in Afghanistan and its limited but vital role in Libya, Mr. Niblett said, amid divisions within the alliance about its role. “But Putin has raised, even more than Slobodan Milosevic in Kosovo, concerns about events that we thought could no longer happen on the European continent,” he said. |
| “There’s still a 19th- and 20th-century Europe alongside the 21st-century one,” Mr. Niblett said. “We thought Russia could change, was changing. But Putin has taken it in another direction, consolidating power in a crude form.” | “There’s still a 19th- and 20th-century Europe alongside the 21st-century one,” Mr. Niblett said. “We thought Russia could change, was changing. But Putin has taken it in another direction, consolidating power in a crude form.” |
| NATO and the West will have to balance reassurance and provocation. “We need to think about the next generation of Russian leaders and carefully create space for them,” he said. “To encourage Ukraine now to join NATO as some sort of solution would be rash for the security of Europe.” | NATO and the West will have to balance reassurance and provocation. “We need to think about the next generation of Russian leaders and carefully create space for them,” he said. “To encourage Ukraine now to join NATO as some sort of solution would be rash for the security of Europe.” |