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On Ukraine, Merkel Finds Limits of Her Rapport With Putin Ukraine Crisis Limits Merkel’s Rapport With Putin
(about 9 hours later)
BERLIN — Since the first Russian forces infiltrated Crimea on Feb. 28, Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, has spoken to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia at least four times on the phone, her spokesman says. In the space of 10 days, she went from warning him to avoid “any step that could contribute to escalation” to bluntly telling him that Crimea’s plans for a referendum on joining Russia are “illegal.” BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel, a Protestant pastor’s daughter, grew up in East Germany under a system in which President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia served as a K.G.B. agent stationed in Dresden. Fluent in Russian, she literally speaks his language and, arguably, understands his view of the world better than any other European leader touched by the Ukrainian crisis.
Ms. Merkel, 59, a Protestant pastor’s daughter, grew up in East Germany under a system in which Mr. Putin, 61, once had a hand, as a K.G.B. agent stationed in Dresden. Fluent in Russian, she literally speaks his language and, arguably, understands his view of the world better than any other European leader touched by the Ukrainian crisis. With that shared background, not to speak of the extensive economic ties between the countries, Ms. Merkel has emerged as a pivotal leader in the crisis that erupted after Russian forces overran Crimea late last month, the only one whose advice Mr. Putin might heed. But for all the familiarity, and despite hundreds of hours spent together during their years as leaders of their respective countries, Ms. Merkel has so far been unable to bridge the gap with Mr. Putin, whose German is also good.
It was, by her spokesman’s account, tough talk between two leaders who seemingly could not be more different but who are bound by a shared history. According to advisers in both Berlin and Moscow, the two leaders are unafraid to voice their disagreements and they often heed each other. If anything, as the days dwindle before a Crimean referendum on secession, that gap is widening, and now Ms. Merkel is facing a perhaps historic decision on whether to take a harder line against Russia.
For all the familiarity, and despite hundreds of hours spent together during more than a decade as the leaders of their respective countries, Ms. Merkel has so far been unable to bridge the gap with Mr. Putin on Ukraine. She appears exasperated by his unwillingness to avoid further provocative steps, much less de-escalate the crisis — she reportedly told President Obama after one recent conversation with the Russian leader that Mr. Putin was in “another world” — and her government is increasingly signaling a willingness to lead Europe toward a harder line on sanctions and other steps to pressure and isolate Russia. Since the first Russian forces infiltrated Crimea on Feb. 28, Ms. Merkel, 59, has spoken to Mr. Putin, 61, at least four times on the phone, her spokesman says. In the space of 10 days, she went from warning him to avoid “any step that could contribute to escalation” to bluntly telling him that Crimea’s plans for a referendum on joining Russia are “illegal.”
In confronting the limits of her personal diplomacy, Ms. Merkel is not just at a potential turning point in the Ukraine crisis, but also in her own nation’s decades-long debate over how assertive a role to play on the world stage. The nations of Eastern Europe, with Russia looming large over them, are pressing her to be stronger in confronting Mr. Putin. The United States continues to push for more tangible steps than Germany and the rest of the European Union have been willing to embrace so far. After one recent conversation with the Russian leader, she now-famously remarked to President Obama that Mr. Putin was in “another world.” She appears exasperated by his unwillingness to avoid further provocative steps, much less de-escalate the crisis, and her government is increasingly signaling a willingness to depart from its preferred approach of consensus building and lead Europe toward a harder line on sanctions and other steps to pressure and isolate Russia.
If nothing else, for Ms. Merkel and German leaders across the spectrum, the failure so far to talk Mr. Putin into calming the situation is a blow to their preferred approach to global politics: consensus, painstaking negotiation and the avoidance of ultimatums, let alone force. Germany and Russia have been trading and warring for centuries, of course, and it was a German-born princess who became czarina, Catherine the Great, who first conquered and absorbed Crimea into Russia in the 18th century. Germany was squarely on the fault line between East and West in the Cold War, and this direct knowledge of division sends a special shudder through Germany’s establishment today as the threat of a new European divide looms.
Germany and Russia have been trading and warring for centuries, and it was a German-born princess, Catherine the Great, who became czarina and first conquered and absorbed Crimea into Russia in the 18th century. Germany is dependent on Russia for up to a one-third of its oil and gas and tens of billions of dollars in trade, while it is also a leading member of NATO, a pillar of Western policy and the biggest economy in the 28-nation European Union.
But since the defeat of Nazi Germany, in which the Soviet Union played a major role, jaw-jaw has replaced war-war. Germany was squarely on the fault line between East and West in the Cold War, and this direct knowledge of division sends a special shudder through the German establishment today faced by the threat of a new European divide. Since the 1970s, when Chancellor Willy Brandt embarked on Ostpolitik, or conciliation with the East, the German answer in reconciling those competing tugs has been to promote dialogue. But now, with an unwilling, even intransigent, Mr. Putin, that policy may be now exhausted.
Germany is at once dependent on Russia for up to a third of its oil and gas, and tens of billions of dollars in trade, while it is also a leading member of NATO, a pillar of Western policy, and the biggest economy in the 28-nation European Union. “There is no compromise in sight,” said Alexander Rahr, a longtime Kremlin observer and the head of the German-Russian Forum, a nongovernmental group in Berlin. “Nobody really wants to move toward the other.”
Since the 1970s, when Chancellor Willy Brandt embarked on Ostpolitik, or conciliation with the East, the German answer in reconciling those competing tugs has been to promote dialogue. Ms. Merkel’s pleas to refrain from the annexation of Crimea are now outdated, he suggested, given the apparent popularity of Mr. Putin’s move in Russia, which governed Crimea for two centuries before the Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev gave it to Ukraine in 1954.
As Mr. Obama — and Ms. Merkel — face increasing pressure for a more assertive response to Russia, the chancellor has found an unwilling, even intransigent, Mr. Putin, prompting some to wonder aloud whether the German policy is now exhausted.
“There is no compromise in sight,” said Alexander Rahr, a longtime Kremlin observer and the head of the German-Russian Forum, a nongovernmental group in Berlin. “Nobody really wants to move toward the other.” Ms. Merkel’s pleas to refrain from the annexation of Crimea are now outdated, he suggested, given the apparent popularity of Mr. Putin’s move in Russia, which governed Crimea for two centuries before the Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev gave it to Ukraine in 1954.
“He cannot turn back,” Mr. Rahr said of Mr. Putin and “she is not helping him out of the situation.”“He cannot turn back,” Mr. Rahr said of Mr. Putin and “she is not helping him out of the situation.”
That is not to say Ms. Merkel has not tried. In addition to speaking with Mr. Putin — more times, it seems, than any other Western leader — Ms. Merkel has placed herself in the special role of mediator. She has also talked several times with Mr. Obama, as well as with the leaders of Britain and France, East European presidents and prime ministers, and the presidents of China and Kazakhstan. In the absence of diplomatic progress, the European Union intends to move forward with tougher sanctions next Monday, and to sign, probably next Thursday, the political part of the Association Agreement with Ukraine that first sparked unrest in Kiev in November, Ms. Merkel and Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland announced on Wednesday.
As she tries to nudge Mr. Putin toward an offramp in the crisis, it is not clear what help Ms. Merkel can offer. Despite recent ructions with the United States over the monitoring of her cellphone, she is mindful of her allegiance to Washington and her European partners. She “must be careful to avoid the impression of going behind anybody’s back,” Mr. Rahr said. Speaking after talks in Warsaw, Ms. Merkel said she thought the West would need “a great deal of patience” before the Ukraine crisis is over. The ultimate way forward lies through diplomacy, she said, but noted that six days had elapsed since the European Union demanded a Contact Group bringing together Russia, Ukraine and other powers, making sanctions almost unavoidable.
On Wednesday, Ms. Merkel is visiting Poland, where it is a measure of her difficult new position that tensions over Crimea are eating at the close ties the two countries have recently forged. “We are in the 21st century,” she told reporters, speaking of Europe. “We don’t solve conflicts militarily, we’ve said that. But we also don’t try to avoid conflicts.”
Before Ms. Merkel’s visit, the prime minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, took a highly unusual swipe at Germany and the chancellor, as Poland proudly marked the 15th anniversary of its NATO membership. And the current crisis, she said, “is a very serious conflict in Europe.”
“Germany’s reliance on Russian gas can effectively limit European sovereignty, I have no doubt,” Mr. Tusk said, according to the news agency Reuters. “I’ll be speaking very openly with Merkel, making it clear that the existing climate and natural gas policies risk posing a threat to the security and sovereignty of Europe as a whole.” Before Ms. Merkel’s visit, Mr. Tusk took a highly unusual swipe at Germany and the chancellor as Poland proudly marked the 15th anniversary of its NATO membership.
“Germany’s reliance on Russian gas can effectively limit European sovereignty, I have no doubt,” he said, according to the news agency Reuters. “I’ll be speaking very openly with Merkel, making it clear that the existing climate and natural gas policies risk posing a threat to the security and sovereignty of Europe as a whole.”
Germany has pioneered alternative energy policies since Ms. Merkel mandated the gradual shutdown of nuclear power plants in the aftermath of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan in 2011. Poland, which wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, hopes shale gas discoveries will gradually help, and in the meantime relies heavily on polluting brown coal to generate power.Germany has pioneered alternative energy policies since Ms. Merkel mandated the gradual shutdown of nuclear power plants in the aftermath of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan in 2011. Poland, which wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, hopes shale gas discoveries will gradually help, and in the meantime relies heavily on polluting brown coal to generate power.
In recent years, Mr. Tusk said, Germany “has been a strong example” of where dependency on Russian energy can lead.In recent years, Mr. Tusk said, Germany “has been a strong example” of where dependency on Russian energy can lead.
Even so, faced with the unnerving possibility that dialogue will produce nothing in Ukraine, German leaders are sounding increasingly resigned to tighter European Union sanctions on Russia over Crimea, if only, perhaps, to draw Russia back to the bargaining table.Even so, faced with the unnerving possibility that dialogue will produce nothing in Ukraine, German leaders are sounding increasingly resigned to tighter European Union sanctions on Russia over Crimea, if only, perhaps, to draw Russia back to the bargaining table.
“Sanctions hurt both sides, that’s quite clear,” Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, said Monday. “But if you look at the numbers, Russia has 15 percent of its G.D.P. depending on trade with Europe, Europe only 1 percent,” she added. “That means that the reliance on a functioning business relationship with Europe is much, much bigger in Russia.”“Sanctions hurt both sides, that’s quite clear,” Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, said Monday. “But if you look at the numbers, Russia has 15 percent of its G.D.P. depending on trade with Europe, Europe only 1 percent,” she added. “That means that the reliance on a functioning business relationship with Europe is much, much bigger in Russia.”
That is why sanctions should prod the oligarchs and Russian business, she contended, to lean on Mr. Putin “to bring him back on to the track of talks — he must open a dialogue.”That is why sanctions should prod the oligarchs and Russian business, she contended, to lean on Mr. Putin “to bring him back on to the track of talks — he must open a dialogue.”
The Ukrainian crisis has increasingly brought a military response that unsettles Germans, who have largely renounced the militarism that brought World Wars I and II.The Ukrainian crisis has increasingly brought a military response that unsettles Germans, who have largely renounced the militarism that brought World Wars I and II.
The German news media has given prominent play to reports that 12 extra F-16 fighter jets were sent to Poland, whose air force already has 48 such jets, after six F-15s were sent to the Baltic states last week and reconnaissance planes were deployed in Poland and Romania.The German news media has given prominent play to reports that 12 extra F-16 fighter jets were sent to Poland, whose air force already has 48 such jets, after six F-15s were sent to the Baltic states last week and reconnaissance planes were deployed in Poland and Romania.
In a strong indication of how worried even conservatives are about losing good contact with Russia, former Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Wednesday gave a statement to Bild, the country’s biggest-circulation newspaper, saying that “great omissions” had been made in policy toward Ukraine. “The mood of revolt in Ukraine was not intelligently followed. Equally there was a lack of sensitivity in the dealings with our Russian neighbor, especially President Putin,” he said.In a strong indication of how worried even conservatives are about losing good contact with Russia, former Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Wednesday gave a statement to Bild, the country’s biggest-circulation newspaper, saying that “great omissions” had been made in policy toward Ukraine. “The mood of revolt in Ukraine was not intelligently followed. Equally there was a lack of sensitivity in the dealings with our Russian neighbor, especially President Putin,” he said.
“We cannot forget: war is not policy,” he added. “We cannot forget: War is not policy,” he added.
Ms. Merkel’s governing partners, the Social Democrats, issued a similar warning. “Europe stands dangerously close to the brink of a military confrontation,” the party said this week in an unusually tense statement. “One hundred years after the start of World War I, military force should never again become the means of conducting politics.”Ms. Merkel’s governing partners, the Social Democrats, issued a similar warning. “Europe stands dangerously close to the brink of a military confrontation,” the party said this week in an unusually tense statement. “One hundred years after the start of World War I, military force should never again become the means of conducting politics.”
“Europe stands at a crossroads,” it added. “We must do everything in our power to prevent a new division of our continent and a regression into a pattern of confrontation long considered overcome.”“Europe stands at a crossroads,” it added. “We must do everything in our power to prevent a new division of our continent and a regression into a pattern of confrontation long considered overcome.”