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Merkel Warns Britain Not to Expect Too Much Merkel Warns Britain Not to Expect Too Much
(about 3 hours later)
LONDON — Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany addressed members of both houses of the British Parliament, had lunch with Prime Minister David Cameron at 10 Downing Street and then planned to meet Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace for afternoon tea on Thursday. LONDON — Given red-carpet treatment in London, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany responded Thursday with warm words but few hard promises to Prime Minister David Cameron, who is counting on her support in his efforts to loosen British ties to the European Union.
The itinerary contrasted tellingly with the recent visit to Britain by President François Hollande of France, who was received at a military air base and treated to a country pub lunch. Ms. Merkel became the first German chancellor to address both houses of Parliament since 1970, lunched at 10 Downing Street, then took afternoon tea with Queen Elizabeth II an itinerary that underlined the importance Mr. Cameron attaches to the leader of the biggest European Union nation. By contrast the French president, François Hollande, was received recently at a military air base then taken to a country pub by Mr. Cameron for lunch.
But, despite warm words in her address to Parliament, Ms. Merkel offered her hosts little substantive encouragement for Mr. Cameron’s desire for major reform in the European Union to help him counter euroskeptic voices seeking Britain’s withdrawal from the 28-nation body. In return for her top-notch treatment, Ms. Merkel offered warm praise for Britain’s historical contribution to Europe, and she joined cause with Mr. Cameron in calling for curbs on welfare entitlements for migrants crossing European Union frontiers. There should be freedom of movement for workers but not migration “into social security systems,” she told a news conference.
“We need a strong United Kingdom with a strong voice inside the European Union. If we have that we will be able to make the necessary changes for the benefit of all,” Ms. Merkel said. Yet, while keeping open the prospect of reforms to the 28-nation European Union, she pointedly declined to support Mr. Cameron’s efforts to rewrite the bloc’s founding treaties, a process that he believes will help him reshape British relations with Brussels.
But, switching from German to English to make her point, Ms. Merkel said: “Some expect my speech to pave the way for a fundamental reform of the European architecture which will satisfy all kinds of alleged or actual British wishes. I am afraid they are in for a disappointment.” From the start of her speech in the ornate Royal Gallery of the British Parliament, Ms. Merkel lowered expectations of what she could deliver for her host. “Some expect my speech to pave the way for a fundamental reform of the European architecture which will satisfy all kinds of alleged or actual British wishes. I am afraid they are in for a disappointment,” she said, speaking in clear English before switching to her native tongue.
“Others are expecting the exact opposite and they are hoping that I will deliver the clear and simple message here in London that the rest of Europe is not prepared to pay almost any price to keep Britain in the European Union. I am afraid these hopes will be dashed,” she added. “We need a strong United Kingdom with a strong voice inside the European Union,” Ms. Merkel said. “If we have that we will be able to make the necessary changes for the benefit of all.”
Mr. Cameron, who says the European Union must make important changes if Britain is to remain a member, has been investing heavily in his relationship with Ms. Merkel, the leader of the union’s most powerful nation. When he was invited last year to Schloss Meseberg, the German government’s official guest residence outside Berlin, Mr. Cameron made the trip a rare family outing, taking his wife and children to emphasize the strength of the friendship. Though Mr. Cameron and Ms. Merkel also discussed the crisis in Ukraine, Britain’s anguished debate about its role in Europe dominated the talks. In January 2013, Mr. Cameron promised that, if re-elected next year, he would renegotiate British ties and then put the outcome of that agreement to a referendum on whether to stay in the European Union or quit.
But analysts have been warning that the red-carpet reception for Ms. Merkel reflected unrealistic expectations in Britain for what Germany’s chancellor, who is known for her pragmatism, can deliver. German policy makers want Britain to remain, seeing its free-market economics as a counterbalance to the more statist approach of countries like France. Mr. Cameron has also invested in his personal relationship with Ms. Merkel, a fellow conservative, because she shares some of his worries about the rise of populism in Europe and about the Continent’s economic competitiveness.
“They think Merkel is the savior, the great white hope,” said Charles Grant, the director of the London-based Center for European Reform. “But her power is much more limited than that.” But analysts say there is a limit to what Germany will contemplate, particularly when it comes to giving Britain special rights to opt out of policy areas.
Joachim Fritz-Vannahme, the director of European projects at the Bertelsmann Foundation, a German research institute, said that Mr. Cameron was “overestimating her and underestimating the German will to go ahead with more European integration at least in the euro zone.” Britain does not use the common currency and has been pulling in the opposite direction, seeking to decentralize some powers. “Merkel is keen on keeping the U.K. in the E.U.,” said Tanja Börzel, professor of European Integration at Berlin’s Free University, “she also shares its interest in strengthening the Single European Market, the E.U.'s competitiveness as well as its role as a global actor more broadly speaking. However, she is neither willing nor able to negotiate selective opt-outs for the U.K.”
To Berlin, Mr. Cameron’s objectives look fuzzy, Mr. Fritz-Vannahme said. “It is not very clear what he would like to have back from Brussels,” he said. She added: “Granting the U.K. further opt-outs would seriously threaten prospects for strengthening European integration in areas that are key to Germany by fueling the appetite of other member states to ask for their own opt-outs.”
Ms. Merkel’s new coalition partners, the Social Democrats, favor greater European integration, and few other members of the union are eager to rewrite the bloc’s rule book. Mr. Cameron’s desire for a full-scale treaty change is driven by the knowledge that he could veto any new agreement, something that would give him leverage in negotiations. Yet many other European nations dislike the idea, knowing that a full new treaty agreement could force them to hold referendums that they might easily lose.
The stakes for Mr. Cameron are high. Under pressure from the right, notably the United Kingdom Independence Party, which wants to curb immigration and quit the European Union, Mr. Cameron’s government has steadily hardened its European policy. A year ago, he promised that if he wins another term in 2015, he will renegotiate Britain’s ties with the European Union and then ask voters to decide in a referendum whether to stay in the bloc or leave. Ms. Merkel instead suggested that only small, more technical, changes were on her agenda, saying that she wanted to adapt the rule book for the euro which Germany uses but Britain does not “in a limited, targeted and speedy way.”
The concerns about migration that already feature in British politics have surfaced in other nations, including Germany, and populist parties are expected to gain strength in elections for the European Parliament in May. So Mr. Cameron is hoping that Ms. Merkel’s political instincts will make her an ally. Analysts said that there was never much prospect of a movement on Thursday. Mr. Cameron has yet to state what specific changes he wants to see in any detail, leaving his objectives fuzzy. Ms. Merkel’s political style is famously pragmatic and she rarely shows her hand early in any negotiation let alone before it has begun.
Many German policy makers see Britain’s strong attachment to free markets as a vital counterbalance to the more statist approach of countries like France. Ms. Merkel also knows that closer integration among the 18 nations in the euro zone could strain relations with the European Union’s other 10 members, who share the same single market though not the currency. And, while in London, Ms. Merkel also called on the leader of the opposition, Ed Miliband, a recognition that Mr. Cameron faces a difficult election next year and may never get the chance to conduct his promised renegotiation and referendum.
Mr. Cameron wants to pursue his policy objectives in Europe through a rewriting of the European Union’s governing treaties because the union’s rules give him a veto in that process, and therefore more negotiating leverage than he would have in more ordinary legislating and policy making.
But as Ms. Merkel is aware, a full-scale treaty revision would open the way for each of the 28 nations to put forward its own demands, and the finished product would require ratification by referendum in several member countries, a process that on previous occasions has produced unwelcome surprises in France, the Netherlands, Ireland and elsewhere.
So far, Mr. Cameron has not said specifically what he wants from such a treaty renegotiation, perhaps because he would be unlikely to satisfy hard-line euroskeptics in his party.
Though The Guardian newspaper reported on Wednesday that Ms. Merkel was preparing to offer Mr. Cameron a limited amount of help on the issue, her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said in Jerusalem on Tuesday that “the expectations of the British press are clearly too high,” according to Bloomberg News.