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Syria's disintegration alarms Israel Syria's disintegration alarms Israel
(7 months later)
Nearly three years into the war in Syria, the Israeli government is getting used to the idea that its northern neighbour is changing beyond recognition as the bloodiest chapter of the Arab spring takes its bloody course with no end in sight. Unlike Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, Israel – Syria's enemy for 65 years - has not been inundated with hundreds of thousands of desperate refugees fleeing the conflict. But it is increasingly alarmed about the disintegration of the country and the rise of Jihadi-type groups in the uprising against Bashar al-Assad. Eventually, the fear is, they will turn their attention to Israel. Nearly three years into the war in Syria, the Israeli government is getting used to the idea that its northern neighbour is changing beyond recognition as the bloodiest chapter of the Arab spring takes its bloody course with no end in sight. Unlike Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, Israel – Syria's enemy for 65 years - has not been inundated with hundreds of thousands of desperate refugees fleeing the conflict. But it is increasingly alarmed about the disintegration of the country and the rise of Jihadi-type groups in the uprising against Bashar al-Assad. Eventually, the fear is, they will turn their attention to Israel.
On the occupied side of the Golan Heights, wounded Syrians are being treated by the Israeli military – which has allowed limited media coverage to advertise its humanitarian activities. Outside Israel, it was reported this week that injured fighters are being questioned about the strength, weaponry and structure of Islamist brigades – indispensable detail on these little-known "new players" in the region.On the occupied side of the Golan Heights, wounded Syrians are being treated by the Israeli military – which has allowed limited media coverage to advertise its humanitarian activities. Outside Israel, it was reported this week that injured fighters are being questioned about the strength, weaponry and structure of Islamist brigades – indispensable detail on these little-known "new players" in the region.
Israeli officials, including the head of military intelligence, have been warning for months of the growing strength of groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. This has fed into European fears of "blowback" from Islamist fighters returning home after being bloodied in Syria. Israel is also talking up the risk from "Global Jihad" in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip – a local "war on terror" narrative that frames its view of the region and deflects pressure to make concessions to the Palestinians.Syria blames the Saudis, Qatar and Turkey for backing the rebels. But it has also accused Israel of involvement. Faisal Miqdad, the deputy foreign minister told me last spring that "Mossad agents" had been killed while operating in southern Syria. He gave no details. Still, it would be surprising if Israel was not trying taking at least to monitor and influence developments in border areas – perhaps by sharing intelligence or supplying arms to selected opposition fighters. Israeli officials, including the head of military intelligence, have been warning for months of the growing strength of groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. This has fed into European fears of "blowback" from Islamist fighters returning home after being bloodied in Syria. Israel is also talking up the risk from "Global Jihad" in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip – a local "war on terror" narrative that frames its view of the region and deflects pressure to make concessions to the Palestinians. Syria blames the Saudis, Qatar and Turkey for backing the rebels. But it has also accused Israel of involvement. Faisal Miqdad, the deputy foreign minister told me last spring that "Mossad agents" had been killed while operating in southern Syria. He gave no details. Still, it would be surprising if Israel was not trying taking at least to monitor and influence developments in border areas – perhaps by sharing intelligence or supplying arms to selected opposition fighters.
On the ground, the circumstances are similar to those in south Lebanon during the civil war in the late 1970s when Israel forged a clandestine alliance with Christian forces and armed proxies to fight the PLO. But there is no hard evidence for the claim that Israel is actively seeking Assad's overthrow. Early western enthusiasm for the uprising – translated into Barack Obama's demand that the president must step down- was not shared in Israel.If anything the Israelis have been worried about the disappearance of a familiar figure. Assad, like his father Hafez before him, is "the devil they know." Until the 2011 uprising, the Golan ceasefire line had been a model of UN-monitored calm since 1974. The two countries negotiated for eight years over the Golan and the eastern shore of Lake Tiberias before talks ended in 1999. The Syrian opposition has often taunted Assad for fighting his own people instead of the "Zionist enemy."Israel has benefitted militarily as the war has severely weakened the Syrian army – its main Arab enemy since the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt. Last September's US-Russian agreement robbed Syria of its chemical weapons arsenal, its answer to Israel's nuclear capability. Assad's missile stocks have also been badly depleted. Israel has cut back its armoured divisions and halted the distribution of gas masks to civilians after the CW deal. "Yes, it is to our advantage that the Syrian army has been significantly weakened," says a senior official in Jerusalem.Israeli leaders have largely refrained from making statements about Syria since Ehud Barak, then defence minister, predicted two years ago that Assad would fall "within weeks." It was an extraordinarily bad judgement that may have reflected wishful thinking: regime change in Damascus would certainly have been a grievous blow for Iran and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbullah – sworn enemies of Israel.Hopes that the current regime in Damascus will be replaced by a democratic system that will preserve Syria intact have long faded. Few expect the UN-brokered Geneva peace talks to achieve anything. On the ground, the circumstances are similar to those in south Lebanon during the civil war in the late 1970s when Israel forged a clandestine alliance with Christian forces and armed proxies to fight the PLO. But there is no hard evidence for the claim that Israel is actively seeking Assad's overthrow. Early western enthusiasm for the uprising – translated into Barack Obama's demand that the president must step down- was not shared in Israel. If anything the Israelis have been worried about the disappearance of a familiar figure. Assad, like his father Hafez before him, is "the devil they know." Until the 2011 uprising, the Golan ceasefire line had been a model of UN-monitored calm since 1974. The two countries negotiated for eight years over the Golan and the eastern shore of Lake Tiberias before talks ended in 1999. The Syrian opposition has often taunted Assad for fighting his own people instead of the "Zionist enemy." Israel has benefitted militarily as the war has severely weakened the Syrian army – its main Arab enemy since the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt. Last September's US-Russian agreement robbed Syria of its chemical weapons arsenal, its answer to Israel's nuclear capability. Assad's missile stocks have also been badly depleted. Israel has cut back its armoured divisions and halted the distribution of gas masks to civilians after the CW deal. "Yes, it is to our advantage that the Syrian army has been significantly weakened," says a senior official in Jerusalem. Israeli leaders have largely refrained from making statements about Syria since Ehud Barak, then defence minister, predicted two years ago that Assad would fall "within weeks." It was an extraordinarily bad judgement that may have reflected wishful thinking: regime change in Damascus would certainly have been a grievous blow for Iran and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbullah – sworn enemies of Israel. Hopes that the current regime in Damascus will be replaced by a democratic system that will preserve Syria intact have long faded. Few expect the UN-brokered Geneva peace talks to achieve anything.
Israel's principal involvement in the Syrian crisis has been to use its air power to prevent weapons transfers to Hizbullah – a "red line" Binyamin Netanyahu has maintained. Half a dozen attacks – none of them avowed – have been in defence of Israel's strategic dominance, not direct intervention in the war. In theory - at least according to the old Middle Eastern doctrine of "my enemy's enemy is my friend" - Israel should want to see Assad go. In practice, the alternative now looks worse.Israel's principal involvement in the Syrian crisis has been to use its air power to prevent weapons transfers to Hizbullah – a "red line" Binyamin Netanyahu has maintained. Half a dozen attacks – none of them avowed – have been in defence of Israel's strategic dominance, not direct intervention in the war. In theory - at least according to the old Middle Eastern doctrine of "my enemy's enemy is my friend" - Israel should want to see Assad go. In practice, the alternative now looks worse.