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(7 months later)
TOKYO — Waging an impassioned political campaign, two retired prime ministers, including one of Japan’s most popular political figures, have tried to turn a local election in Tokyo into what they call Japan’s first referendum on the future of nuclear power since the accident in Fukushima nearly three years ago. TOKYO — Waging an impassioned political campaign, two retired prime ministers, including one of Japan’s most popular political figures, have tried to turn a local election in Tokyo into what they call Japan’s first referendum on the future of nuclear power since the accident in Fukushima nearly three years ago.
But as the vote on Sunday approaches, polls and political analysts say the two aging leaders have not yet been able to persuade enough voters to back their quixotic bid against nuclear power. Analysts say the message of the election results for Tokyo governor is likely to be muddled in any case, with the antinuclear vote split and the pro-nuclear governing party’s candidate trying to blunt his rivals’ message by saying he supports an “eventual phaseout” of nuclear power.But as the vote on Sunday approaches, polls and political analysts say the two aging leaders have not yet been able to persuade enough voters to back their quixotic bid against nuclear power. Analysts say the message of the election results for Tokyo governor is likely to be muddled in any case, with the antinuclear vote split and the pro-nuclear governing party’s candidate trying to blunt his rivals’ message by saying he supports an “eventual phaseout” of nuclear power.
Both of the former leaders are major figures from Japan’s political past. Morihiro Hosokawa, 76, who was Japan’s first opposition prime minister 20 years ago, is running for governor. The other, Junichiro Koizumi, 72, has tried to bring his star power to bear by campaigning vigorously for Mr. Hosokawa. Their effort is aimed not at their local opponents, but squarely at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has vowed to turn nuclear plants back on to secure low-cost electricity as part of his plan to revive economic growth.Both of the former leaders are major figures from Japan’s political past. Morihiro Hosokawa, 76, who was Japan’s first opposition prime minister 20 years ago, is running for governor. The other, Junichiro Koizumi, 72, has tried to bring his star power to bear by campaigning vigorously for Mr. Hosokawa. Their effort is aimed not at their local opponents, but squarely at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has vowed to turn nuclear plants back on to secure low-cost electricity as part of his plan to revive economic growth.
At a campaign stop, Mr. Hosokawa, who was helped by aides up a ladder to a platform atop a truck, made a forceful appeal about how a vote for him could stymie Mr. Abe’s plans.At a campaign stop, Mr. Hosokawa, who was helped by aides up a ladder to a platform atop a truck, made a forceful appeal about how a vote for him could stymie Mr. Abe’s plans.
“This is not only Tokyo’s election!” bellowed Mr. Hosokawa, who had stunned Japan by announcing he would come out of nearly two decades of retirement as a potter to run as an antinuclear candidate. “If Tokyo says no to nuclear power, it can change the future of Japan! The whole world is watching! It wants to know, can Japan change?”“This is not only Tokyo’s election!” bellowed Mr. Hosokawa, who had stunned Japan by announcing he would come out of nearly two decades of retirement as a potter to run as an antinuclear candidate. “If Tokyo says no to nuclear power, it can change the future of Japan! The whole world is watching! It wants to know, can Japan change?”
The antinuclear campaign is remarkable not only for drawing two of Japan’s best-known reformist leaders out of retirement, but also for highlighting their very public apostasy: Both were former believers in nuclear power who say they turned against it after the Fukushima disaster exposed its dangers. Both were also from rival parties.The antinuclear campaign is remarkable not only for drawing two of Japan’s best-known reformist leaders out of retirement, but also for highlighting their very public apostasy: Both were former believers in nuclear power who say they turned against it after the Fukushima disaster exposed its dangers. Both were also from rival parties.
The two men have run a single-issue campaign in which they promise to declare that Tokyo, the capital, will never again use nuclear-generated electricity, and instead get as much power as possible from renewable sources like solar.The two men have run a single-issue campaign in which they promise to declare that Tokyo, the capital, will never again use nuclear-generated electricity, and instead get as much power as possible from renewable sources like solar.
Because of public concerns about safety, Japan’s 48 operable commercial reactors were idled in the months after the triple meltdown in March 2011 that was caused by an earthquake and tsunami. But Mr. Abe and other nuclear supporters say Japan cannot recover from its long economic slump without cheap power.Because of public concerns about safety, Japan’s 48 operable commercial reactors were idled in the months after the triple meltdown in March 2011 that was caused by an earthquake and tsunami. But Mr. Abe and other nuclear supporters say Japan cannot recover from its long economic slump without cheap power.
When Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Hosokawa began their campaign late last month, they pitched it as what many analysts agreed was the first real chance to put the nuclear question directly to a large number of voters. The governing Liberal Democratic Party’s victories in two national elections after the accident are widely seen as having been votes of dissatisfaction with a previous opposition-party government, not a conclusive show of support for Mr. Abe’s nuclear policies.When Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Hosokawa began their campaign late last month, they pitched it as what many analysts agreed was the first real chance to put the nuclear question directly to a large number of voters. The governing Liberal Democratic Party’s victories in two national elections after the accident are widely seen as having been votes of dissatisfaction with a previous opposition-party government, not a conclusive show of support for Mr. Abe’s nuclear policies.
But analysts say the two former prime ministers appear to be having trouble persuading enough voters to take their attempt seriously. Polls this week showed the governing party candidate, Yoichi Masuzoe, 65, a former labor minister who is backed by the governing party’s powerful vote-gathering machine, ahead with just a few days to go, though many voters still appear undecided. Mr. Hosokawa also appears to have lost voters to another antinuclear candidate, backed by the Communist Party.But analysts say the two former prime ministers appear to be having trouble persuading enough voters to take their attempt seriously. Polls this week showed the governing party candidate, Yoichi Masuzoe, 65, a former labor minister who is backed by the governing party’s powerful vote-gathering machine, ahead with just a few days to go, though many voters still appear undecided. Mr. Hosokawa also appears to have lost voters to another antinuclear candidate, backed by the Communist Party.
“Koizumi and Hosokawa just look too old and too removed from local concerns in Tokyo,” said Hiroshi Shiratori, a political scientist at Hosei University in Tokyo. “This has not become the referendum on nuclear power that they had hoped for.”“Koizumi and Hosokawa just look too old and too removed from local concerns in Tokyo,” said Hiroshi Shiratori, a political scientist at Hosei University in Tokyo. “This has not become the referendum on nuclear power that they had hoped for.”
Mr. Abe has largely stayed aloof, intervening only to question whether a local election is an appropriate forum for deciding national energy policy. Mr. Masuzoe has also tried to focus the election on other issues like preparing for the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.Mr. Abe has largely stayed aloof, intervening only to question whether a local election is an appropriate forum for deciding national energy policy. Mr. Masuzoe has also tried to focus the election on other issues like preparing for the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.
Mr. Hosokawa and Mr. Koizumi counter that the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is relevant to Tokyo voters because the plant existed to supply their city with electricity.Mr. Hosokawa and Mr. Koizumi counter that the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is relevant to Tokyo voters because the plant existed to supply their city with electricity.
Still, the two former leaders draw huge crowds when they speak. In a recent speech in front of a Tokyo train station, Mr. Koizumi, who battled vested interests as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, said that turning away from nuclear power would give the nation a chance to reinvent itself, just as it did when it rose from defeat after World War II. He laid out a vision in which Japan would become a global pioneer in renewable energy.Still, the two former leaders draw huge crowds when they speak. In a recent speech in front of a Tokyo train station, Mr. Koizumi, who battled vested interests as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, said that turning away from nuclear power would give the nation a chance to reinvent itself, just as it did when it rose from defeat after World War II. He laid out a vision in which Japan would become a global pioneer in renewable energy.
“It won’t be easy, but we can rise to this new challenge if we try!” boomed Mr. Koizumi, whose trademark wavy hair has whitened with age. “Japanese are good at beating the odds!”“It won’t be easy, but we can rise to this new challenge if we try!” boomed Mr. Koizumi, whose trademark wavy hair has whitened with age. “Japanese are good at beating the odds!”
Many of those listening said they were moved by Mr. Koizumi’s appeals, but were also worried that eliminating nuclear power would hurt the economy’s chances for recovery.Many of those listening said they were moved by Mr. Koizumi’s appeals, but were also worried that eliminating nuclear power would hurt the economy’s chances for recovery.
“It is an agonizing choice,” said Hiromi Onuki, 77, a retired manufacturing company manager who strained to see Mr. Koizumi over the heads of the crowd. “We saw what happened in Fukushima, and Japan cannot survive another such accident. But does Japan really have any other realistic choice for affordable energy?”“It is an agonizing choice,” said Hiromi Onuki, 77, a retired manufacturing company manager who strained to see Mr. Koizumi over the heads of the crowd. “We saw what happened in Fukushima, and Japan cannot survive another such accident. But does Japan really have any other realistic choice for affordable energy?”