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Canada agenda may spark election Canada agenda may spark election
(about 3 hours later)
Canadians could face a snap election if opposition parties decide not to support the government's priorities, to be set out on Tuesday. A snap election could be called in Canada this month if opposition parties reject the minority Conservative government's annual "throne speech".
A mandatory confidence vote will follow the annual "throne speech" by the minority government of Stephen Harper. A series of mandatory confidence votes are due to be held and, if all three opposition parties vote against, an election will be triggered.
If all three opposition parties vote against, an election will be triggered. The speech, given on Tuesday night, offers a vote on military involvement in Afghanistan and outlines tax cuts.
But with the incumbents performing well in opinion polls, pundits have floated the idea that they might - perversely - seek to engineer their own downfall. It also says Canada cannot meet Kyoto greenhouse gas reduction goals.
Commentators also suggest the leading opposition Liberal Party is ill-prepared to fight an election, and thus faces a difficult decision over whether to support the government. But reports suggest the leading opposition Liberal Party is ill-prepared to fight an election and unlikely to vote against the speech.
Dynamics of vote It is due to make its position clear after a party meeting on Wednesday.
The ruling Conservatives are expected to include key themes in the throne speech, to be delivered by Governor-General Michaelle Jean. "The priority of Canadians is that this parliament works and there is not a third election in three-and-a-half years," Liberal leader Stephane Dion said.
They will include tax cuts, crime legislation, pressing for Canadian interests in the contested Arctic region, and what to do about the controversial Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. "We need to spend the evening calmly, soberly, reflecting," party deputy leader Michael Ignatieff remarked.
Week-long wait
Governor-General Michaelle Jean, Canada's ceremonial head of state, delivered the throne speech, a tradition under the Commonwealth country's parliamentary system.
Calls are growing for a clear end to Canada's Afghan mission
It will be voted upon three times, with the first vote expected on Thursday night and the final one on 24 October.
The speech promises a parliamentary vote on any extension of the military mission in Afghanistan, currently set to end in February 2009
"Our government does not believe that Canada should abandon the people of Afghanistan after February 2009," the speech stressed.
The other key point in the speech is its declaration that Canada's greenhouse gas emissions are 33% above its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, and the country will not be able to meet the targets.
Opposition parties have been calling for Kyoto compliance.
Elsewhere, the speech outlines multi-year tax cuts for individuals and businesses, and a 1% cut in the national sales tax.
All eyes on the Liberals
As they hold only 126 seats in the 308-seat parliament, Stephen Harper's Conservatives need the support of at least one of the three main opposition parties to see the vote through.
SEATS IN PARLIAMENT Conservatives: 126Liberals: 96Bloc Quebecois: 49New Democrats: 30Independent: 3Total: 308 (including 4 vacant seats)SEATS IN PARLIAMENT Conservatives: 126Liberals: 96Bloc Quebecois: 49New Democrats: 30Independent: 3Total: 308 (including 4 vacant seats)
The government will then face a confidence vote on its priorities later this week.
As they hold only 126 seats in the 308-seat parliament, the Conservatives need the support of at least one of the three main opposition parties to see the vote through.
Given that the two smaller opposition parties - the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-wing New Democratic Party - seem certain to vote against, the outcome of the vote rests on the Liberals.Given that the two smaller opposition parties - the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-wing New Democratic Party - seem certain to vote against, the outcome of the vote rests on the Liberals.
But pundits suggest the Liberal Party may be reluctant to trigger an election as soon as November or December. Their recently elected leader Stephane Dion does not enjoy uniform party support, and recent opinion polls have given the Conservatives a substantial lead over the Liberals. But pundits suggest the Liberal Party may be reluctant to trigger an election as soon as November or December.
Poison pill? Mr Dion, elected only recently, does not enjoy uniform party support and recent opinion polls have given the Conservatives a substantial lead over the Liberals.
Mr Harper, meanwhile, has said publicly that he would rather continue governing without seeking a new mandate until 2009. Mr Harper has said publicly that he would rather continue governing without seeking a new mandate until 2009 but some commentators have suggested he could be bluffing.
But some commentators have suggested Mr Harper could be bluffing. They suggest he could be tempted to fight an election now - and that he could achieve this by including an unsupportable legislative item - a so-called poison pill - in the throne speech.
There are high stakes on both sides.There are high stakes on both sides.
Observers say Mr Dion risks losing credibility if he supports the government. Mr Harper takes a gamble if he turns to the always unpredictable ballot box. Observers say Mr Dion risks losing credibility if he supports the government.
Mr Harper takes a gamble if he turns to the always unpredictable ballot box.


Are you in Canada? Should the opposition parties force an election? What implications would that have for the government? Send us your comments using the form below.Are you in Canada? Should the opposition parties force an election? What implications would that have for the government? Send us your comments using the form below.
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