Canadians could face a snap election if opposition parties decide not to support the government's priorities, to be set out on Tuesday.
Canadians could face a snap election if opposition parties decide not to support the government's priorities, to be set out on Tuesday.
A mandatory confidence vote will follow the so-called throne speech by the minority government of Stephen Harper.
A mandatory confidence vote will follow the so-called throne speech by the minority government of Stephen Harper.
If all three opposition parties vote against, an election will be triggered.
If all three opposition parties vote against, an election will be triggered.
But with the incumbents performing well in opinion polls, pundits have floated the idea that they might - perversely - seek to engineer their own downfall.
But with the incumbents performing well in opinion polls, pundits have floated the idea that they might - perversely - seek to engineer their own downfall.
Commentators also suggest the leading opposition Liberal Party is ill-prepared to fight an election, and thus faces a difficult decision over whether to support the government.
Commentators also suggest the leading opposition Liberal Party is ill-prepared to fight an election, and thus faces a difficult decision over whether to support the government.
Dynamics of vote
Dynamics of vote
The ruling Conservatives are expected to include key themes in the throne speech, to be delivered by Governor-General Michaelle Jean.
The ruling Conservatives are expected to include key themes in the throne speech, to be delivered by Governor-General Michaelle Jean.
They will include tax cuts, crime legislation, pressing for Canadian interests in the contested Arctic region, and what to do about the controversial Canadian military mission in Afghanistan.
They will include tax cuts, crime legislation, pressing for Canadian interests in the contested Arctic region, and what to do about the controversial Canadian military mission in Afghanistan.
The government will then face a confidence vote on its priorities later this week.
The government will then face a confidence vote on its priorities later this week.
As they hold only 126 seats in the 308-seat parliament, the Conservatives need the support of at least one of the three main opposition parties to see the vote through.
As they hold only 126 seats in the 308-seat parliament, the Conservatives need the support of at least one of the three main opposition parties to see the vote through.
Given that the two smaller opposition parties - the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-wing New Democratic Party - seem certain to vote against, the outcome of the vote rests on the Liberals.
Given that the two smaller opposition parties - the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-wing New Democratic Party - seem certain to vote against, the outcome of the vote rests on the Liberals.
But pundits suggest the Liberal Party may be reluctant to trigger an election as soon as November or December. Their recently elected leader Stephane Dion does not enjoy uniform party support, and recent opinion polls have given the Conservatives a substantial lead over the Liberals.
But pundits suggest the Liberal Party may be reluctant to trigger an election as soon as November or December. Their recently elected leader Stephane Dion does not enjoy uniform party support, and recent opinion polls have given the Conservatives a substantial lead over the Liberals.
Poison pill?
Poison pill?
Mr Harper, meanwhile, has said publicly that he would rather continue governing without seeking a new mandate until 2009.
Mr Harper, meanwhile, has said publicly that he would rather continue governing without seeking a new mandate until 2009.
But some commentators have suggested Mr Harper could be bluffing. They suggest he could be tempted to fight an election now - and that he could achieve this by including an unsupportable legislative item - a so-called poison pill - in the throne speech.
But some commentators have suggested Mr Harper could be bluffing. They suggest he could be tempted to fight an election now - and that he could achieve this by including an unsupportable legislative item - a so-called poison pill - in the throne speech.
There are high stakes on both sides.
There are high stakes on both sides.
Observers say Mr Dion risks losing credibility if he supports the government. Mr Harper takes a gamble if he turns to the always unpredictable ballot box.
Observers say Mr Dion risks losing credibility if he supports the government. Mr Harper takes a gamble if he turns to the always unpredictable ballot box.
Should the opposition parties force an election? What implications would that have for the government? Send us your comments using the form below.
Are you in Canada? Should the opposition parties force an election? What implications would that have for the government? Send us your comments using the form below.
