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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Brown 'rules out' autumn election | Brown 'rules out' autumn election |
| (10 minutes later) | |
| Gordon Brown is expected to say he will not call a general election this autumn, the BBC has learned. | Gordon Brown is expected to say he will not call a general election this autumn, the BBC has learned. |
| BBC political editor Nick Robinson understands that a statement from the prime minister is due to be made soon. | BBC political editor Nick Robinson understands that a statement from the prime minister is due to be made soon. |
| Opposition leaders had challenged Mr Brown to end uncertainty over whether he would call an election after mounting speculation in recent weeks. | Opposition leaders had challenged Mr Brown to end uncertainty over whether he would call an election after mounting speculation in recent weeks. |
| Recent opinion polls have suggested that Labour's lead over the Conservatives has fallen. | Recent opinion polls have suggested that Labour's lead over the Conservatives has fallen. |
| Speculation had been mounting that the prime minister would call a November election after he announced plans to make a statement to MPs on Iraq on Monday. | Speculation had been mounting that the prime minister would call a November election after he announced plans to make a statement to MPs on Iraq on Monday. |
| Conservative leader David Cameron had called upon Mr Brown to end what he described as "endless dithering". | Conservative leader David Cameron had called upon Mr Brown to end what he described as "endless dithering". |
| Marginal seats | Marginal seats |
| And Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell said the decision showed "a loss of nerve" by Mr Brown. | And Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell said the decision showed "a loss of nerve" by Mr Brown. |
| This will be a day, a weekend and probably a week of red faces, of awkward headlines and embarrassment for those around Gordon Brown Nick RobinsonBBC News political editor | This will be a day, a weekend and probably a week of red faces, of awkward headlines and embarrassment for those around Gordon Brown Nick RobinsonBBC News political editor |
| The two dates that were most widely touted for an election had been 1 and 8 November. | The two dates that were most widely touted for an election had been 1 and 8 November. |
| Speculation had grown when the government also moved forward plans to outline its Comprehensive Spending Review - which sets long-term spending plans - and pre-Budget report to Tuesday, rather than late October. | Speculation had grown when the government also moved forward plans to outline its Comprehensive Spending Review - which sets long-term spending plans - and pre-Budget report to Tuesday, rather than late October. |
| Nick Robinson suggested that the main reason for not calling a snap election would be an unfavourable poll of marginal seats showing a swing to Tories. | Nick Robinson suggested that the main reason for not calling a snap election would be an unfavourable poll of marginal seats showing a swing to Tories. |
| 'Verdict' election | 'Verdict' election |
| Our correspondent said the PM wants to win with a mandate for real change, but does not think he could do that with an early election, and consequently may not call an election until 2009. | Our correspondent said the PM wants to win with a mandate for real change, but does not think he could do that with an early election, and consequently may not call an election until 2009. |
| He said that Mr Brown will now plump for a "verdict election" - one based on his actual performance, not on how people think he may do in the future. | He said that Mr Brown will now plump for a "verdict election" - one based on his actual performance, not on how people think he may do in the future. |
| Nick Robinson added: "Mr Brown's opponents will make hay. They will say that he has bottled it. | Nick Robinson added: "Mr Brown's opponents will make hay. They will say that he has bottled it. |
| "The only source of comfort for Labour politicians is that in the end this is about Westminster calculations and is not a decision that affects ordinary people's lives. | "The only source of comfort for Labour politicians is that in the end this is about Westminster calculations and is not a decision that affects ordinary people's lives. |
| "This will be a day, a weekend and probably a week of red faces, of awkward headlines and embarrassment for those around Gordon Brown," he added. | "This will be a day, a weekend and probably a week of red faces, of awkward headlines and embarrassment for those around Gordon Brown," he added. |
| Morale damaged | Morale damaged |
| He said the decision would damage the morale of the Labour Party. | He said the decision would damage the morale of the Labour Party. |
| The BBC's head of political research, David Cowling, said the speculation had to be stopped one way or another. | The BBC's head of political research, David Cowling, said the speculation had to be stopped one way or another. |
| "I think he's had to put a stop on this... the thing was drifting away - it started off slow, it built up and the momentum was such that actually the aspiration, the anticipation was becoming part of the problem and he just had to stop it now." | "I think he's had to put a stop on this... the thing was drifting away - it started off slow, it built up and the momentum was such that actually the aspiration, the anticipation was becoming part of the problem and he just had to stop it now." |
| Labour's lead | |
| Recent opinion polls have suggested that Labour's lead over the Conservatives has fallen. | |
| An ICM poll for the Guardian newspaper on Friday suggested the Conservatives and Labour were level - on 38% - compared with a 7% lead for Labour one month ago. | |
| The poll surveyed 1,008 adults on Wednesday and Thursday, after Mr Cameron's address to the Conservative conference in Blackpool. | |
| Meanwhile, the results of an earlier YouGov survey for Channel 4 News - which interviewed 1,741 people, also on Wednesday and Thursday - suggested the government, on 40%, was four points ahead of the Tories compared with a lead of 11 points last week. | |
| Meanwhile, BBC journalist Andrew Marr was seen entering Downing St on Saturday afternoon, leading to speculation that Mr Brown will discuss his decision on Mr Marr's programme Sunday AM, broadcast at 0900GMT on Sunday. |