Virginia and New Jersey elections to showcase divergent GOP strategies
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Version 0 of 1. Hours before its biggest political test since defeat in the 2012 national election, the Republican party is praying that voters in Virginia's election for state governor on Tuesday prove more like the enthusiastic crowd gathered recently just outside the town of Norfolk. Ageing, overwhelmingly white – despite being hosted by the local Filipino cultural centre – and surrounded by the world's largest naval base, the core supporters turning out at last-minute rallies like this for conservative candidate Ken Cuccinelli are as loyal as they come. The problem is, there aren't enough of them. Shortly before the opening prayer, organisers patrol the back of a half-empty room, gently prodding the elderly campaigners to stand closer together so they appear a tight throng before the watching television cameras. The stark math is mirrored by multiple opinion polls showing that the once-dominant Cuccinelli has slipped more than six points behind his Democratic rival Terry McAuliffe. Both sides have spent the final few days preaching to the converted in similar small rallies up and down this swing state. Both camps are increasingly more pre-occupied with ensuring turnout among the political base than persuading any last-minute floating voters. At recent McAuliffe rallies, even Barack Obama and his Democratic predecessor Bill Clinton have warned that the Democrats' biggest danger lies in a low turnout, a particular problem in the "off-year" votes that follow presidential elections. But only Republicans are actively hoping that moderate floating voters stay home this time. “If turnout is in the 30s, the low 30s, we’re gonna win,” Virginia Republican party chairman Pat Mullins was reported to have told supporters this weekend. “If it gets higher up in Fairfax [in Democratic-leaning northern Virginia], say, like, 40, it’s likely we won’t. I don’t think it’s going to hit 40 anywhere. I’m looking at 32.” The results on Tuesday night will show if this bitter, personality-driven campaign has indeed turned off Virginia's moderates, yet the bigger question for Republicans nationally is whether the apparent unpopularity of their hardline candidate will be a taste of things to come in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential race. The contrast is made all the more stark by opinion polls further up the coast in New Jersey, where moderate Republican candidate Chris Christie is ahead of his Democratic rival by a margin even bigger than McAuliffe in the other gubernatorial race due to reach a climax on Tuesday. These two state elections have become therefore not just a mirror for Republican electoral hopes nationally, but a battleground for the two competing ideological groups battling for control of the party. While former presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been out supporting Christie, Cuccinelli has played host to 2016 hopefuls such as senators Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. Rand Paul, son of the libertarian favourite Ron, was unapologetic about his focus on national topics during last week's rally in Norfolk – rehearsing his growing appeal on civil liberties issues such as excessive surveillance by the National Security Agency. “While this is not primarily a state issue, this is something where you have a candidate who believes in the right to privacy and will say no to a federal government spying on its citizens,” said Paul. “There is only one candidate in this race that will defend the second amendment, the fourth amendment, and the sixth amendment, and it's Ken Cuccinelli.” This is an area where the new breed of conservative Republicans differs from more traditional hardliners. Battling against his divisive reputation as social conservative on issues such as abortion, Cuccinelli has been painting himself as civil liberties campaigner – reminding supporters how he helped release a wrongfully-convicted murderer while serving as state attorney general. “I am running in the office first held by Thomas Jefferson, that is an extremely humbling thought,” he said while standing alongside Paul. “America started here, a few miles away in Cape Henry 406 years ago – and this is where the battle for first principles should continue to be fought. We should be a guiding post, not just for the commonwealth of Virginia but for the USA.” It's on the issue of big government however, that the distinction between modern conservative Republicans and their Democratic rivals are most extreme, particularly after the flawed launch of Obama's healthcare reforms and the recent government shutdown gave fresh vigour to the fight in Virginia. “Talk about a clear choice,” says Cuccinelli. “I need your help to communicate these choices, they are as clear as they could be: on taxes, on Obamacare, on the second amendment. Bigger government will lead you to Terry's position, smaller government will lead you to mine.” “I am the only candidate who has been fighting for you for 20 years,” he adds, pointing to his time suing Washington as state attorney general. “Whether it's for one person who was wrongfully committed of crimes he didn't commit or whether it's fighting the biggest opponent in the world: the United States government.” If Republicans had wanted to market-test which of their competing strategies for winning back control of Washington would prove acceptable to swing voters, they could not have staged a more clear cut test than Tuesday's votes in Virginia and New Jersey. Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |