Iranians preoccupied with politics, United Nations survey shows
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Version 0 of 1. In 2015, the UN's Millennium Development Goals, the organisation's principal framework for eliminating poverty worldwide, will draw to a close. In the unprecedented global survey to determine what follows, MY World, citizens from all countries are being asked to vote directly – online, by SMS, and by paper ballot – for their priorities in a new development agenda. Both across the world and in the Middle East, socioeconomic concerns predominate. Iranians, however, are stressing political concerns to a greater degree than elsewhere. And moves by the new government suggest this is well understood. Respondents to the survey select six of 16 given development priorities to define a new agenda. This week at the UN general assembly, the survey hosts an event to celebrate its millionth voter – as of this writing, 1.15 million people from 194 countries have participated. Results can be viewed in real time on a dedicated website, with priorities ranked top to bottom in order of popularity. Data can be disaggregated by sex, age, education, country, region, and UN Human Development Index (HDI) cohort. The priorities range over four broad categories. Seven of the 16 options concern socioeconomic management, including issues such as access to "education", "sanitation" and "personal safety". Three priorities, "transportation", "reliable energy", and "phone/Internet access", deal with infrastructure management. The third category involves environmental management: "protecting the environment", and "dealing with climate change". Questions of political management are represented by four priorities: "honest government", "freedom from discrimination", "gender equality", and "political freedoms". As results stand right now, socioeconomic concerns occupy five out of the top six priorities around the world and in most regions and countries. In Iran, however, socioeconomic concerns account for only four of the top six priorities, with the other two both being issues of political management. Take-up in Iran as of 22 September is relatively small, at 4,201 out of 27,877 for all of western Asia. Sample selection is inevitably an issue, as respondents often come from civil society organisations already working with UN agencies. But the sample continues to grow. The survey is available in English online, and it has also been translated into Farsi for distribution in paper ballot form. Translated ballots account for over half of the Iranian total so far. The majority of these were part of a global drive by UNAIDS, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/Aids, to promote the survey, while encouraging participants to identify HIV/Aids as an additional suggested priority in the ballot's "write-in" field. Only 36% of Iranian respondents have more than a secondary education, so this is not simply an exercise for a liberal elite. Men dominate but not dramatically, with about three men responding for every two women. More than half the sample is under 30, but then so is more than half the country. Honest government is a top-six concern across all age groups. "Honest government" – a global favourite, ranking fourth internationally – is the second-most popular response in Iran, and a top-six concern across all age groups. As elsewhere, "healthcare", "education", and "jobs" also feature in the top six. But then so does "gender equality", which ranks only ninth internationally. And this is not a purely female-driven result: while 40% of women voted it a concern, so have 36% of men. At the beginning of September, with a little less than 2,000 votes cast in Iran, the focus on political concerns was even greater, with "honest government" and "political freedoms" as the two top responses. Now, with more than 4,000 votes cast, "political freedoms" has dropped out of the top six. The role of UNAIDS, in collecting about half of the total vote through outreach to individuals more dependent on social provision measures, may go some way to explaining the shift toward social management issues. Both in the survey's defined western Asia region and among Iran's "high" HDI cohort, four priorities continue to dominate: "education", "honest government", "jobs", and "health". Only one issue of political management features in the top six, for both groupings. In high-HDI countries overall, the only other issue of political management in even the top ten is "freedom from discrimination". What about country-level comparisons? Considering countries with broadly similar characteristics – comparable per capita wealth, population size, location, and economic make-up – Iraq, though confronted with its own particular issues, probably comes closest. Turkey is an interesting case: besides obvious political differences, it is something like an Iran without the petroleum. Finally, a broadly similar country from outside the region is Venezuela, oil exporting and of comparable wealth. In all three countries, only one political management issue features in the top six priorities, that of "honest government". In both Iraq and Turkey, the other three political issues all line up just behind the top six – in other words, political questions remain pertinent, just not predominant. In Venezuela, issues of "discrimination" and "political freedom" rank only ninth and tenth. Finally, to look at how the other half lives, we can select three considerably richer countries: the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The UAE has the big four – "education", "jobs", "health", and "honest government" – and the regional concern with personal safety. Also paralleling Iraq and Turkey, political questions are just outside the top six: "discrimination" and "gender equality" are ranked eighth and ninth respectively. In all these comparisons so far, only the US and UK have two political management issues in the top six. A clue to understanding this comes from the other priorities chosen. All three countries list "water" and in the US and UK, "food" as well. These are not countries known for food-security problems. Rather what appears to happen is that in richer countries the survey becomes a hypothetical: "What would I most need were I to wake up in poverty?" But even hypothetically, none of these countries are as concerned with political issues as Iranian respondents are. In addition to questions about the statistical validity of such a small sample, there are questions regarding the priorities themselves. Freedom from discrimination is a broad theme that is open to interpretation. Social norms are also important. Though women in Saudi have fewer rights than elsewhere, gender equality is not a top-six concern even among women there. Another standout result is "support for people who can't work", at number three in Iran, whereas it is only 11th worldwide and 14th among high-HDI nations generally. Regionally, it is just outside the top six in Western Asia; at number six in Iraq, it is well down at 13th in Turkey. How to interpret Iranians' focus on this concern is not self-evident. The Islamic republic prides itself on the way it takes care of injured veterans: is that fuelling unusually high expectations, or does the vote in fact indicate a serious shortcoming? But overall, according to preliminary comparative results, Iranian respondents are thinking politically. Even taking into account the Arab uprisings and recent Turkish unrest, political issues do not emerge in these places in the same way as in Iran. And there is evidence that the administration of President Hassan Rouhani, now in his second month in office, recognises these concerns and is responding to them. The release last week of 11 political prisoners made headlines around the world. While this was seen by many as a signal to the international community, its domestic importance is arguably greater. Related efforts are under way to relax the conditions of house arrest imposed on Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. And the president has publicly stated that the (typically hardline) Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should steer clear of domestic politics. Socioeconomic factors remain significant nonetheless. Iranians are still concerned about good education, quality healthcare, and decent jobs. For all the focus on the ideological shifts represented by Rouhani and his predecessors Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, their electoral victories rested on responding to socioeconomic concerns as well. This is what Rouhani intends to do in New York, by opening the path to a resolution of the nuclear and, by extension, sanctions issues. While he has a lot of open fronts to deal with, he is at least demonstrating a clear awareness of them. Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |