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It was Iron Balls' best shot, but will Tory scare tactics win the day? It was Ed Balls' best shot, but will Tory scare tactics win the day?
(about 5 hours later)
A strong speech from tough would-be chancellor Iron Balls gave good reasons to vote Labour – and firm warnings against a penny of uncosted spending. Offering up the manifesto for forensic scrutiny by the Office for Budget Responsibility was a deft move: how foolish the Tories will look if they refuse to let the OBR take it on.A strong speech from tough would-be chancellor Iron Balls gave good reasons to vote Labour – and firm warnings against a penny of uncosted spending. Offering up the manifesto for forensic scrutiny by the Office for Budget Responsibility was a deft move: how foolish the Tories will look if they refuse to let the OBR take it on.
Making the under-taxed banks pay for 25 hours of free childcare, with wraparound care from breakfast to tea for all primary-age children, takes us closer to Scandinavian standards. For the first time work will pay for millions of families where sky-high childcare costs mean mothers toil for little profit. In a rapid-fire riff, Balls hammered out what Labour would do: raise the minimum wage, no tax cuts for millionaires, reform the banks, stop tax avoidance, set up a green investment bank, end the bedroom tax, and repeal the NHS Act – all paid for with earmarked savings elsewhere. That cast-iron guarantee needs to stick. Will it?Making the under-taxed banks pay for 25 hours of free childcare, with wraparound care from breakfast to tea for all primary-age children, takes us closer to Scandinavian standards. For the first time work will pay for millions of families where sky-high childcare costs mean mothers toil for little profit. In a rapid-fire riff, Balls hammered out what Labour would do: raise the minimum wage, no tax cuts for millionaires, reform the banks, stop tax avoidance, set up a green investment bank, end the bedroom tax, and repeal the NHS Act – all paid for with earmarked savings elsewhere. That cast-iron guarantee needs to stick. Will it?
David Cameron's policies may tumble into disarray like dominos, but his team's supreme skill is sticking the stiletto into Labour. His media myrmidons are hair-trigger ready to denounce any Labour policy as a "fiasco". As conference spoilers the Mail bought Damian McBride's dirty linen, the Telegraph went with "Labour will clobber the rich", while the Sunday Times launched Labour's "£27.9bn black hole". McBride had no killer goods on the Eds, and "clobbering the rich" is pretty popular – but that "black hole" prompts shudders in the shadow cabinet. It came from a spurious and disgracefully politicised "Treasury" document – but rattled them because it resonates with public opinion. Unfair, but these are the seas Labour has to navigate.David Cameron's policies may tumble into disarray like dominos, but his team's supreme skill is sticking the stiletto into Labour. His media myrmidons are hair-trigger ready to denounce any Labour policy as a "fiasco". As conference spoilers the Mail bought Damian McBride's dirty linen, the Telegraph went with "Labour will clobber the rich", while the Sunday Times launched Labour's "£27.9bn black hole". McBride had no killer goods on the Eds, and "clobbering the rich" is pretty popular – but that "black hole" prompts shudders in the shadow cabinet. It came from a spurious and disgracefully politicised "Treasury" document – but rattled them because it resonates with public opinion. Unfair, but these are the seas Labour has to navigate.
Some primal political myths are now firmly lodged in the public mind. Balls set out his refutations: Labour's public spending didn't crash the economy. Labour was borrowing less than it inherited from the Tories. Osborne inherited a growing economy from Alistair Darling – but snuffed it out with three years of austerity. Benefits have been ruthlessly cut, yet the total bill keeps rising to subsidise bad jobs and low pay.Some primal political myths are now firmly lodged in the public mind. Balls set out his refutations: Labour's public spending didn't crash the economy. Labour was borrowing less than it inherited from the Tories. Osborne inherited a growing economy from Alistair Darling – but snuffed it out with three years of austerity. Benefits have been ruthlessly cut, yet the total bill keeps rising to subsidise bad jobs and low pay.
Labour people know it, but the argument has been all but lost with the public. As the economy finally nudges upwards – and may bounce up brightly before the election – polls suggest Osborne increasingly gets the credit and Labour the blame. That's what Ed Balls confronts. However right in his critique of Osborne's austerity – "three wasted years of lost growth" – he's accused of having called it wrong. The paradox of thrift – why spending not cutting is the way out of a depression – was hard enough to explain before but it's an even tougher sell now.Labour people know it, but the argument has been all but lost with the public. As the economy finally nudges upwards – and may bounce up brightly before the election – polls suggest Osborne increasingly gets the credit and Labour the blame. That's what Ed Balls confronts. However right in his critique of Osborne's austerity – "three wasted years of lost growth" – he's accused of having called it wrong. The paradox of thrift – why spending not cutting is the way out of a depression – was hard enough to explain before but it's an even tougher sell now.
Balls is crystal clear on no extra current spending in the first year. On investment, he rightly leaves the door wide open: "We will assess the case for capital investment as we prepare our manifesto." That will be a litmus test of Labour's intent. People will understand the difference between spending weekly wages and long-term borrowing for a mortgage. What's needed is a national mortgage to build a million homes: so far Balls has only promised to bring forward £10bn in planned infrastructure spending. But that's how we shall know if Labour essentially accepts this government's economic policy or has a broader vision.Balls is crystal clear on no extra current spending in the first year. On investment, he rightly leaves the door wide open: "We will assess the case for capital investment as we prepare our manifesto." That will be a litmus test of Labour's intent. People will understand the difference between spending weekly wages and long-term borrowing for a mortgage. What's needed is a national mortgage to build a million homes: so far Balls has only promised to bring forward £10bn in planned infrastructure spending. But that's how we shall know if Labour essentially accepts this government's economic policy or has a broader vision.
Labour politicians may well struggle with high-flown rhetoric about a better Britain and furious condemnations of the coalition if the difference between them boils down to a miserable few billions. That's the dilemma: can economic credibility only be won back by copying all of Osborne's incredible policies?Labour politicians may well struggle with high-flown rhetoric about a better Britain and furious condemnations of the coalition if the difference between them boils down to a miserable few billions. That's the dilemma: can economic credibility only be won back by copying all of Osborne's incredible policies?
Demanding Labour's manifesto be certified by the OBR was a master-stroke. When voters are so cynical, why not subject party pledges to scrutiny? But it prompted the Institute For Fiscal Studies to point to the abyss yawning at the feet of both parties. Abolishing the structural deficit by 2017, as Osborne has pledged, means cutting a mountainous £25bn in spending, or hiking taxes after. Osborne won't get through the election this time without defining those cuts. Labour too will need an answer: it should shift the target, stretching it over more years, which Osborne has already done once. But that risks those Tory accusations of profligacy Labour is so desperate to escape.Demanding Labour's manifesto be certified by the OBR was a master-stroke. When voters are so cynical, why not subject party pledges to scrutiny? But it prompted the Institute For Fiscal Studies to point to the abyss yawning at the feet of both parties. Abolishing the structural deficit by 2017, as Osborne has pledged, means cutting a mountainous £25bn in spending, or hiking taxes after. Osborne won't get through the election this time without defining those cuts. Labour too will need an answer: it should shift the target, stretching it over more years, which Osborne has already done once. But that risks those Tory accusations of profligacy Labour is so desperate to escape.
The serious tax/spending/cuts battle has hardly begun. The Tories hint most cuts will come from benefits – but may misjudge the public appetite for more savagery. The British Social Attitudes survey showed a sharp 11% drop between 2010 and 2011 in those who think benefits are "too high and discourage work": expect those attitudes to have softened further in the past year. The bedroom tax was a turning point, now rejected by a sizable majority. Which will voters fear most – irresponsible spending by Labour, or Tory cuts to the bone? Labour fears that until it wins back economic trust none of its increasingly good policies will get a hearing.The serious tax/spending/cuts battle has hardly begun. The Tories hint most cuts will come from benefits – but may misjudge the public appetite for more savagery. The British Social Attitudes survey showed a sharp 11% drop between 2010 and 2011 in those who think benefits are "too high and discourage work": expect those attitudes to have softened further in the past year. The bedroom tax was a turning point, now rejected by a sizable majority. Which will voters fear most – irresponsible spending by Labour, or Tory cuts to the bone? Labour fears that until it wins back economic trust none of its increasingly good policies will get a hearing.
YouGov finds Labour's economic credibility has fallen back since the last election. Losing arguments when you know you're right must be excruciating for Ed Balls – but that's where Labour is and that's the ground to be recovered. Formidable, clever, experienced, best-equipped to get a grip on the Treasury, on Tuesday he gave it his best shot. Whether he can shift opinion remains to be seen. If not, winning back trust may yet need someone else to take Labour across the line.YouGov finds Labour's economic credibility has fallen back since the last election. Losing arguments when you know you're right must be excruciating for Ed Balls – but that's where Labour is and that's the ground to be recovered. Formidable, clever, experienced, best-equipped to get a grip on the Treasury, on Tuesday he gave it his best shot. Whether he can shift opinion remains to be seen. If not, winning back trust may yet need someone else to take Labour across the line.
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