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Census could switch to annual survey if ONS plans are approved Census will be replaced by annual survey if ONS proposal is approved
(about 3 hours later)
The Office for National Statistics is proposing that the decennial national census, in place since 1801, be replaced by a more fluid questionnaire answered by smaller samples of the population every year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is proposing that the once-a-decade census, which began in 1801, be replaced by a more fluid questionnaire.
Under the plan – one of two ideas mooted in the wake of the last full census in 2011 – a changing group of 4% of the population would take census questionnaires every 12 months, with their answers added to existing national data, such as employment and health records, to create an accurate statistical snapshot. This would survey smaller samples of the population every year, in part to avoid statistical surprises such as the unexpectedly big population growth uncovered by the 2011 census.
Government data used for census purposes would first be anonymised to prevent confidential details being revealed. Under the proposal – one of two ideas mooted after the last full census in 2011 – a changing group of 4% of the population of England and Wales would complete census questionnaires every 12 months, with their answers added to existing national data, such as employment and health records, to create an accurate statistical snapshot.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has begun a public consultation into whether to adopt this system or maintain the existing comprehensive census every 10 years. Government data used for census purposes would first be anonymised to protect confidential details. The annual system would be cheaper and more flexible, but would deprive future historians and genealogists of the complete national snapshot provided by a full census.
However, even if the current model is retained, the 2021 census would look somewhat different to 2011's, with the default option being for forms to be filled in online. Two years ago every household was sent a paper form with the option of going online to complete it. A 2021 census would, the ONS believes, see at least 65% of households use the internet. Those not connected to the internet would be able to send in postal forms or give answers verbally on the doorstep to field workers. The ONS has begun a public consultation into whether to adopt this system or maintain the existing comprehensive census.
Census findings, which currently cost about £50m or so a year, are a vital tool to help governments allocate spending and plan for future changes. One of the main arguments for the annual model would be to avoid errors that can creep into population estimates. The 2011 census discovered 480,000 more people than expected, a factor of higher immigration and birth rates.
The smaller annual survey would identify demographic and social trends far more quickly and would cost less than the current system. However, the data would be less detailed and comprehensive and the nation would lose the complete historical overview provided by a full census. However, even if the current system is retained, the 2021 census would look somewhat different from 2011's, with the default option being for forms to be filled in online. Two years ago every household was sent a paper form with the option of using the internet to complete it, with about 10m households doing this. In the 2021 census, the ONS expects at least 65% of households to use the internet. Those not connected to the internet would be able to use postal forms or give answers verbally on the doorstep to field workers.
Census data is released publicly after a century, and is a key resource for people researching family trees. Two of the nine questions in the ONS consultation cover this specific point, asking what historic research advantages the full census brings and whether moving to the annual system would prove a significant disadvantage for future genealogical studies. Census findings are a tool to help governments allocate spending and plan ahead. The smaller annual survey would identify demographic and social trends more quickly but would be less detailed and comprehensive.
In contrast, the once-a-decade census provides statistics down to tiny geographical areas‚ as detailed as 125 households. However, the ONS notes, the long delay can mean changes being identified slowly, for example the population growth caused by arrivals from new EU countries, which annual population estimates failed to fully appreciate before the 2011 census was analysed. Census data are released publicly after a century, and are a key resource for people researching family trees. Two of the nine questions in the ONS consultation cover this specific point, asking what historic research advantages the full census brings and whether moving to the annual system would prove a significant disadvantage for future genealogical studies.
Ian Cope, population and demography director for the ONS, said the two options presented for consultation had been narrowed down from a range of others. There was, he said, no sense in trying a middle ground by which more people were questioned each year, covering the entire population over a decade: "The way it works, doubling sample size doesn't give you twice the quality of data. It doubles the cost but it doesn't double the quality." Cost is also an issue. The 2011 census cost £480m; in 2021, the cost would be expected to be £800m if the same, paper-based system were used. A predominantly online full census would, in contrast, cost about £625m in 2021, the ONS predicts, while the annual sample system would work out at about £460m every 10 years.
Glen Watson, the director general of the ONS, said the annual option, which would combine the survey responses with data from the health and education services, the Department for Work and Pensions and Revenue and Customs, marked the "more radical departure".
"It would be re-using that data to create a population count that would give accurate statistics down at fairly low levels of geography, but supplemented by an ongoing annual survey that would fill in some of the rich details that the census has traditionally given us," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
He rejected the idea that this would, in effect, spell the end for the census as a complete national snapshot: "Both approaches are developments of the census. Census is a word that just means counting everyone in the population, and there are different approaches you can use.
"Some countries in the world have gone down this route of re-using administrative data, some countries in the world still do a very traditional, paper-based census, and there are models in between. After every census we look at the technology, we look at the opportunities, we look at the benefits and the costs, and we come up with the best approach for the future. And that's what we're doing."
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