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Merkel Set to Gain Third Term, Exit Polls Show Merkel Party Is Poised for Absolute Majority
(34 minutes later)
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel was poised on Sunday to win a third term in office, after her conservatives made significant gains to emerge as the clear winners of Germany’s election, exit polls indicated. But a collapse of support for her coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, meant that Ms. Merkel would have to build a new government, pointing to a long process of horse-trading in the weeks ahead. BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel scored a stunning personal triumph in Germany’s national elections on Sunday, as voters handed her a clear validation of her leadership — and an all but certain third term — by giving her conservative party its best showing in 20 years, teetering even on the brink of an absolute majority, exit polls indicated.
The most likely coalition partner for a new government would be the center-left Social Democrats, in what is known as a “grand coalition” of the country’s two largest parties. Such a constellation may require lengthy negotiations, however, which would prolong a period of political suspension that Germany’s European Union partners, eager for more forceful action to combat the bloc’s economic crisis, had hoped would end with the vote. Projections from both main German television networks showed Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, together with their sister party in Bavaria, falling tantalizingly close to an absolute majority, which would make her the first chancellor since Konrad Adenauer in 1957 to win one. Still, projections indicated that Ms. Merkel would probably fall two or three seats shy, and a collapse of her coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats, meant that the chancellor would probably have to build a new coalition.
Nonetheless, the returns amounted to a clear validation of Ms. Merkel’s leadeship by German voters, who left her party closer to an absolute majority than almost anyone had expected. The chancellor was clearly buoyant as she emerged onstage at her party’s headquarters after the projections were announced, beaming a wide smile at members, who cheered wildly, “Angie! Angie!” as she thanked voters and her husband, Joachim Sauer, for their support. The result was likely to mean more paralysis for Europe as its most important country engages in weeks of horse-trading to form what was likely to be a grand coalition with her main opponents on the left, the Social Democrats, who did not perform as well as they had hoped Sunday and who may prove to be reluctant partners for fear losing further luster in a government dominated by Ms. Merkel.
“It was a super result,” Ms. Merkel said. “It is too early to say what we will do; we will discuss it tomorrow when we know the final result, but we can already celebrate tonight, because we were great.” President François Hollande of France was swift to congratulate the chancellor on “success in the federal election” and invited her to Paris as soon as possible — a clear indication of the eagerness with which Germany’s most important partners awaited the election result.
Projections based on exit polls tallied by the ARD public network showed Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats winning more than 42 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democrats, with nearly 26 percent of the vote. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who with Ms. Merkel has guided Germany and thus Europe through the euro crisis, was swift to go on television and assure European partners that the government in Berlin would continue to play a leading role. But what no one knows is exactly how much fiscal and political unity a new Merkel government would want.
The ZDF public network said its projections showed the chancellor’s party, together with its Bavaria-only partners, the Christian Social Union, within one seat of winning an absolute majority in the lower house, which would allow Ms. Merkel to govern without needing a partner. That outcome will depend on how the final numbers fall for the smaller parties. For the moment, however, the exceptionally strong showing left the chancellor and her party exuberant. Rarely has Ms. Merkel looked as buoyant as she did when she appeared onstage at her party headquarters after projections were announced. Her supporters wildly cheered “Angie! Angie!” and applauded solidly for two minutes, before she thanked party workers, particularly young volunteers, her campaign manager, aides in the chancellery and — most unusually — her husband, Joachim Sauer, a quantum chemist who generally shuns the limelight. He stood quietly to the side of the stage, shyly acknowledging the jubilation of his wife’s supporters.
The chancellor’s main challenger, Peer Steinbrück, 66, told supporters that his party had failed to achieve the result it had expected, even as he congratulated Ms. Merkel on her win. “It was a super result,” Ms. Merkel said. “It is too early to say what we will do. We will discuss it tomorrow when we know the final result, but we can already celebrate tonight. Because we were great!”
“The ball is in Ms. Merkel’s court; she has to get herself a majority,” Mr. Steinbrück said. Projections tallied by the ARD public network and based on exit polls, which in Germany have proved exceptionally accurate in the past, showed Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats winning more than 42 percent of the vote, a gain of more than 8 percent, followed by the Social Democrats with nearly 26 percent of the vote. An exultant Ursula von der Leyen, as employment minister the most powerful woman in Ms. Merkel’s Cabinet, told German television, “this is our best result in 20 years.”
The biggest surprise of the evening was the upstart, anti-euro Alternative for Deutschland party, which exit polls showed just shy of the 5 percent needed to enter into the lower house of Parliament. A classic protest party, it appeared to have drawn enough support from both the chancellor’s conservatives and the Free Democrats, possibly costing the latter their place in Parliament. The biggest surprise of the evening was the upstart, anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, which exit polls showed just shy of the 5 percent needed to enter into the lower house of Parliament. A classic protest party, it appeared to have drawn enough support from both the chancellor’s conservatives and the Free Democrats, possibly costing the latter their place in Parliament.
Projections from the exit polls showed the Free Democrats falling just short of the 5 percent hurdle, meaning they would be ousted from the lower house, a crushing loss after having won nearly 15 percent four years ago. Projections from the exit polls showed the Free Democrats falling just short of the 5 percent hurdle, meaning they would be ousted from the lower house for the first time in postwar Germany, a crushing loss after having won nearly 15 percent four years ago.
Nearly 62 million eligible voters were called upon to determine the makeup of the next German Parliament. The race was watched closely abroad. Given Germany’s leadership role in Europe, the outcome will influence the Continent’s ability to shake its crippling debt crisis, chronic unemployment and sluggish growth. The next government in Berlin will also play a key role in finalizing the ambitious transatlantic trade agreement between the European Union and the United States. Mr. Schäuble, who together with Ms. Merkel has guided Germany and to a large extent Europe through the euro crisis, told German television that Europe had no need to worry about Germany continuing to shoulder its responsibility in the continent’s affairs.
On Saturday, Ms. Merkel wound up her campaign of countless interviews and almost 60 rallies nationwide since mid-August in her home district around Stralsund, a pretty, medieval Hanseatic port on the Baltic Sea. “We will continue to play our part reliably,” he said, praising the bonds to a united Europe as the best thing his country has had in centuries.
Upbeat as she delivered her usual stump speech, the 59-year-old chancellor almost forgot that she was the local candidate as she urged voters to cast their ballots for her and, in the second vote, which is for parties, for her Christian Democrats. Asked whether he would remain finance minister, Mr. Schäuble, who has been in a wheelchair for 23 years since being wounded in an assassination attempt on former Chancellor Helmut Kohl, demurred, noting that many discussions lie ahead.
Nearly 62 million eligible voters were called upon to determine the makeup of the next German Parliament. The race was closely watched abroad, given that Germany’s leadership role in Europe will influence the Continent’s ability to shake its debt crisis, chronic unemployment and sluggish growth. The next government in Berlin will also play a key role in finalizing the ambitious trans-Atlantic trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.
On Saturday, Ms. Merkel wound up her campaign of countless interviews and almost 60 rallies nationwide since mid-August in her home district around Stralsund, a pretty medieval Hanseatic port on the Baltic Sea.
Feisty and upbeat as she delivered her usual stump speech, the 59-year-old Chancellor almost forgot that she was the local candidate the crowd should choose when casting the first of their two votes on Sunday. The second vote, which is for parties, should also go to her Christian Democrats, Ms. Merkel said.
“By putting your cross there, you are doing something which will enable me to continue as your chancellor, which I really want to do,” she told a seafront crowd of hundreds.“By putting your cross there, you are doing something which will enable me to continue as your chancellor, which I really want to do,” she told a seafront crowd of hundreds.
“Tomorrow is your day,” she said, adding her voice to the many people urging all eligible Germans to cast ballots, reflecting the emphasis on duty, as well as rights, in this post-Nazi, post-Communist democracy. “Tomorrow is your day,” she said, adding her voice to the many urging all 61.8 million eligible Germans to cast ballots, reflecting the emphasis on duty, as well as rights, in this post-Nazi, post-Communist democracy.
Roughly one-third of all voters described themselves as undecided just days before the election, adding to the uncertainty in what has proved to be one of the tightest elections since Germany reunited, in 1990. Roughly a third of all voters described themselves as undecided just day election, adding to the uncertainty in what has proved to be one of the tightest elections since Germany reunited in 1990.
“Germany has had four good years” Ms. Merkel said on Saturday, looking back on her second term, dominated by a robust economy and low unemployment, currently at 6.8 percent. “When we look around in Europe, we know that is anything but automatic.” “Germany has had four good years,” Ms. Merkel said on Saturday, looking back on her second term, dominated by a robust economy and low unemployment, currently at 6.8 percent. “When we look around in Europe, we know that is anything but automatic.”
Ms. Merkel had vowed to continue the reflective leadership style that has infuriated and befuddled the country’s partners abroad, but that has been embraced by Germans at home. Many fondly cheered the chancellor as “Mutti,” or “Mommy,” throughout her campaign. Ms. Merkel had vowed to continue the reflective leadership style that in turns infuriates and befuddles the country’s partners abroad, but has been embraced by Germans at home. Many fondly cheered the chancellor as “Mutti,” or “Mommy” throughout her campaign.
Mr. Steinbrück, however, who served as finance minister in her government from 2005 to 2009, had sought to cast her carefully weighed decision-making as plodding and her government with the Free Democrats as crippled by in-fighting. The chancellor’s main challenger, Peer Steinbrück, 66, who served as finance minister in her government from 2005-2009, however has sought to cast her carefully weighed decision making as plodding and her government with the Free Democrats as crippled by in-fighting.
“In 28 hours you can get rid of them; you can get rid of the most backward-looking, incapable, loud-mouthed German government since reunification,” Mr. Steinbrück told a crowd of several thousand on Saturday in Frankfurt, the country’s financial capital and home to the European Central Bank. He had campaigned on closing the widening gap between Germany’s rich and poor by raising taxes on top earners and introducing a minimum wage. “In 28 hours you can get rid of them, you can get rid of the most backward-looking, incapable, loud-mouthed German government since reunification,” Mr. Steinbrück told a crowd of several thousand on Saturday in Frankfurt, the country’s financial capital and home to the European Central Bank. He has campaigned on closing the widening gap between Germany’s rich and poor by raising taxes on top earners and introducing a minimum wage.
The Social Democrats’ preferred partners had been the Greens, but exit polls showed them also suffering losses to reach only about 8 percent support. That would mean that only by including the far-left Left party, formed in 2005 from the former East German Communist Party and western leftists who broke with the Social Democrats, would a left-leaning coalition be possible. Both center-left parties have repeatedly rejected a coalition with the Left, charging that the party remains fractured by in-fighting and differences over policy. The Social Democrats preferred partners had been the Greens, but exit polls showed them also suffering losses to reach only about 8 percent support. That would mean that only by including the far-left Left party, formed in 2005 from the former East German Communist Party and western leftists who broke with the Social Democrats, would a left-leaning coalition be possible. Both center-left parties have repeatedly rejected a coalition with the Left, charging the party remains fractured by in-fighting and differences over policy.
Should the chancellor seek a coalition with the Social Democrats, the negotiations are sure to be difficult and drawn out. Should the chancellor seek a coalition with the Social Democrats, the negotiations are sure to be difficult and drawn out. Horse-trading between the two parties took until the end of November in 2005, in forming her government that led until 2009.

Alison Smale contributed reporting from Stralsund, Germany.

Alison Smale contributed reporting from Stralsund, Germany.