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Analysis: Lebanese vote in balance Analysis: Lebanese vote in balance
(about 22 hours later)
By Martin Patience BBC News, BeirutBy Martin Patience BBC News, Beirut
The vote follows the recent assassination of a anti-Syrian MPThe vote follows the recent assassination of a anti-Syrian MP
The process to elect a new Lebanese president started on Tuesday - and was immediately postponed. Speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the session until 23 October because there were not enough MPs to make the two-thirds quorum, after members of the opposition pro-Syrian bloc stayed away.The process to elect a new Lebanese president started on Tuesday - and was immediately postponed. Speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the session until 23 October because there were not enough MPs to make the two-thirds quorum, after members of the opposition pro-Syrian bloc stayed away.
In the opening stages of the vote, a successful candidate, who by political consensus must be a Maronite Christian, has to get a two-thirds majority.In the opening stages of the vote, a successful candidate, who by political consensus must be a Maronite Christian, has to get a two-thirds majority.
The presidency will decide the future of Lebanon for several years to come¿ It's incredibly important that we get a new president who is recognised as legitimate by both sides Osama Safa, Lebanese Centre for Policy StudiesThe presidency will decide the future of Lebanon for several years to come¿ It's incredibly important that we get a new president who is recognised as legitimate by both sides Osama Safa, Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies
This election strikes at the heart of the political deadlock in the country.This election strikes at the heart of the political deadlock in the country.
The root of the current paralysis is the assassination of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005.The root of the current paralysis is the assassination of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005.
Syria, which had maintained a military presence in the country for almost 30 years, was forced to withdraw its troops after a domestic and international outcry over the killing.Syria, which had maintained a military presence in the country for almost 30 years, was forced to withdraw its troops after a domestic and international outcry over the killing.
Until that point, Syria had enjoyed enormous political influence over its small neighbour.Until that point, Syria had enjoyed enormous political influence over its small neighbour.
But Damascus was widely blamed for the killing, an accusation it strongly denies.But Damascus was widely blamed for the killing, an accusation it strongly denies.
Pro- and anti-SyrianPro- and anti-Syrian
Since then, Lebanon's politicians have broken into two camps - pro- and anti-Syria coalitions.Since then, Lebanon's politicians have broken into two camps - pro- and anti-Syria coalitions.
The current government, led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, is from the anti-Syria coalition which has wide support among Western powers, particularly the US and France.The current government, led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, is from the anti-Syria coalition which has wide support among Western powers, particularly the US and France.
LEADING CANDIDATES Nassib Lahoud: Pro-government candidate. Former US ambassador. Leading industrialistMichel Aoun: Pro-Syrian candidate. Former army commander who fought Syria during civil war. Returned from exile in 2005. Vocal opponent of governmentMichel Suleiman: Army commander since 1998. Electing him requires constitutional amendmentRiad Salameh: Central bank governor since 1993. Widely respected at home and abroad. Election requires constitutional amendmentBoutrous Harb: Pro-government candidate. MP and former ministerJean Obeid: Possible consensus candidate. Foreign minister 2003-2004 LEADING CANDIDATES Nassib Lahoud: Government candidate. Former US ambassador. Leading industrialistMichel Aoun: Opposition candidate. Former army commander who fought Syria during civil war. Returned from exile in 2005. Vocal opponent of governmentMichel Suleiman: Army commander since 1998. Electing him requires constitutional amendmentRiad Salameh: Central bank governor since 1993. Widely respected at home and abroad. Election requires constitutional amendmentBoutrous Harb: Pro-government candidate. MP and former ministerJean Obeid: Possible consensus candidate. Foreign minister 2003-2004
But it has a dwindling majority in parliament after the assassination of four of the coalition's MPs.But it has a dwindling majority in parliament after the assassination of four of the coalition's MPs.
The latest killing was of anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanim, in a car bomb last week. Again, Syria is accused, something it denies strongly.The latest killing was of anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanim, in a car bomb last week. Again, Syria is accused, something it denies strongly.
On the other side of the political divide, is the pro-Syrian coalition led by the Islamic movement Hezbollah with support from the Christian leader Michel Aoun.On the other side of the political divide, is the pro-Syrian coalition led by the Islamic movement Hezbollah with support from the Christian leader Michel Aoun.
This group insists that the fortunes of Lebanon are deeply intertwined with Damascus and that the two countries most strive to work more closely together.This group insists that the fortunes of Lebanon are deeply intertwined with Damascus and that the two countries most strive to work more closely together.
It accuses the current government of being beholden to the regional interests of the US.It accuses the current government of being beholden to the regional interests of the US.
The factions represent two contesting visions of Lebanon's future - one pro-Western, the other having a strong Islamist element and focusing on the conflict with Israel.The factions represent two contesting visions of Lebanon's future - one pro-Western, the other having a strong Islamist element and focusing on the conflict with Israel.
Many see this contest as proxy war between the United States and Iran.Many see this contest as proxy war between the United States and Iran.
No consensusNo consensus
It is in this poisonous - and deadly - atmosphere that the country's politicians are gearing up to elect a new president.It is in this poisonous - and deadly - atmosphere that the country's politicians are gearing up to elect a new president.
"The presidency will decide the future of Lebanon for several years to come," says Osama Safa, general director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, based in Beirut."The presidency will decide the future of Lebanon for several years to come," says Osama Safa, general director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, based in Beirut.
LEBANESE ASSASSINATIONS Feb 2005: Ex-PM Rafik HaririApril 2005: MP Bassel FleihanJune 2005: Anti-Syria journalist Samir KassirJune 2005: Ex-Communist leader George HawiDec 2005: Anti-Syria MP Gebran TueniNov 2006: Industry Minister Pierre GemayelJune 2007: Anti-Syria MP Walid EidoSep 2007: Anti-Syria MP Antoine Ghanim Lebanese voices LEBANESE ASSASSINATIONS Feb 2005: Ex-PM Rafik HaririApril 2005: MP Bassel FleihanJune 2005: Anti-Syria journalist Samir KassirJune 2005: Ex-Communist leader George HawiDec 2005: Anti-Syria MP Gebran TueniNov 2006: Industry Minister Pierre GemayelJune 2007: Anti-Syria MP Walid EidoSep 2007: Anti-Syria MP Antoine Ghanim Lebanese voices
"It's incredibly important that we get a new president who is recognised as legitimate by both sides.""It's incredibly important that we get a new president who is recognised as legitimate by both sides."
The incumbent, Emile Lahoud, is from the pro-Syria camp and needs to step down in November.The incumbent, Emile Lahoud, is from the pro-Syria camp and needs to step down in November.
But no consensus candidate has emerged and talks between the two factions have been put off because of the recent violence.But no consensus candidate has emerged and talks between the two factions have been put off because of the recent violence.
Constitutional argumentConstitutional argument
Political analysts say that in order for the presidency to have legitimacy the two sides must first agree on electoral formula that is acceptable to both.Political analysts say that in order for the presidency to have legitimacy the two sides must first agree on electoral formula that is acceptable to both.
Neither side could garner a two-thirds majority required to elect a president on the first ballot.Neither side could garner a two-thirds majority required to elect a president on the first ballot.
The anti-Syrian coalition is pushing for a simple majority vote, something the opposition is strongly opposed to.The anti-Syrian coalition is pushing for a simple majority vote, something the opposition is strongly opposed to.
Due to the threat of more killings, the anti-Syrian coalition wants the issue to be resolved as soon as possible, so their majority is not reduced any further.Due to the threat of more killings, the anti-Syrian coalition wants the issue to be resolved as soon as possible, so their majority is not reduced any further.
For now, the country's immediate political future is uncertain, and the presidential vote does not appear to be offering up a way out of this uncertainty.For now, the country's immediate political future is uncertain, and the presidential vote does not appear to be offering up a way out of this uncertainty.