Prospects for a Middle East peace

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/17/prospects-middle-east-peace

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Avi Shlaim (Comment, 12 September), like most spokesmen for the Palestinian cause, ignores the dilemma facing Israel in the peace process, which requires it to surrender concrete gains in return for a mere intention to promote a permanent settlement. In 1957, following the Suez war, Israel withdrew from the Sinai in return for international guarantees, only to face a war on that front 10 years later, the guarantees having proved worthless.

The Oslo accords required an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza so that autonomous Palestinian institutions could be established in return for recognition of Israel and a cessation of violence on the Palestinian side. The withdrawal has been achieved, settlements in Gaza have been dismantled, and autonomous institutions have been established. I leave it to Shlaim's academic conscience to decide whether the Palestinian Authority's failure explicitly to recognise Israel as a Jewish state, and the failure or inability to halt terrorism and the violence of the second intifada, are compatible with the accords. Vernon Bogdanor King's College, London

• The gradualism that Avi Shlaim rightly notes was critical to the architecture of the Oslo accords was at the root of their failure. The paramount need was the swift realisation of a sovereign Palestinian state, yet this imperative was held hostage to the prior resolution of all other matters, locking into the process the seeds of its own undoing. The gradualism was also a gift to both sides' saboteurs. If talks are to have any chance of success, the parties – notably the occupying power – need to know there will be a heavy cost to failing. International actors, including the EU and the UK, should prepare a clutch of robust measures – building on the recent EU directive sharply distinguishing between Israel and occupied Palestinian territory – ready for instant implementation should talks fail, and enticing rewards should they succeed. In Israel's case, there will almost certainly need to be a government reshuffle or elections to secure an equitable and workable agreement. The planned measures should therefore be disclosed openly in good time to impact on Israeli as well as Palestinian public opinion. Dr Tony Klug London

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