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| Scottish independence campaigners plan final push before referendum vote | Scottish independence campaigners plan final push before referendum vote |
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| This Saturday, campaigners for Scotland's independence will be on the march. Central Edinburgh will be awash with the blue and white St Andrew's cross, the dramatic yellow and red of the erect lion rampant and Yes Scotland placards from the Highlands, urban Glasgow and the prosperous farmlands of Moray and Aberdeenshire. | This Saturday, campaigners for Scotland's independence will be on the march. Central Edinburgh will be awash with the blue and white St Andrew's cross, the dramatic yellow and red of the erect lion rampant and Yes Scotland placards from the Highlands, urban Glasgow and the prosperous farmlands of Moray and Aberdeenshire. |
| The organisers of the event, which closes with a rally on the crest of Calton Hill with its panoramas of the Scottish capital, are being coy about the numbers they expect. But many thousands are due, dwarfing last year's inaugural independence march of perhaps 10,000 activists that passed through the city centre. | The organisers of the event, which closes with a rally on the crest of Calton Hill with its panoramas of the Scottish capital, are being coy about the numbers they expect. But many thousands are due, dwarfing last year's inaugural independence march of perhaps 10,000 activists that passed through the city centre. |
| The march will mark "a year to go" – the 12 months of increasingly frenetic and intense campaigning until Scotland holds its first and perhaps only referendum on independence on 18 September 2014. | The march will mark "a year to go" – the 12 months of increasingly frenetic and intense campaigning until Scotland holds its first and perhaps only referendum on independence on 18 September 2014. |
| Its keynote speaker will be Alex Salmond, the first minister and Scottish National party leader whose landslide victory two years ago in the Scottish parliament elections delivered the referendum that had been, until now, an 80-year-old dream for his party. | Its keynote speaker will be Alex Salmond, the first minister and Scottish National party leader whose landslide victory two years ago in the Scottish parliament elections delivered the referendum that had been, until now, an 80-year-old dream for his party. |
| Key to that result is a far more significant event in the nationalist calendar. In November, perhaps close to St Andrew's day at the month's endSalmond will publish his government's white paper on independence. | Key to that result is a far more significant event in the nationalist calendar. In November, perhaps close to St Andrew's day at the month's endSalmond will publish his government's white paper on independence. |
| That thick document, perhaps 500 pages long, will be his prospectus for independence, his campaigner's bible, covering an independent Scotland's options on its currency and taxation, welfare and pensions, the role of North Sea oil, defence and the EU, and its economic and social choices. | That thick document, perhaps 500 pages long, will be his prospectus for independence, his campaigner's bible, covering an independent Scotland's options on its currency and taxation, welfare and pensions, the role of North Sea oil, defence and the EU, and its economic and social choices. |
| Salmond has spoken of wanting a great Scottish literary figure to write for it, to sketch out a vision of his newly revitalised nation. But critical to next September's result is the document's credibility and honesty on factual detail, particularly on the economy. | Salmond has spoken of wanting a great Scottish literary figure to write for it, to sketch out a vision of his newly revitalised nation. But critical to next September's result is the document's credibility and honesty on factual detail, particularly on the economy. |
| Over the past seven months, his government has faced a series of detailed questions on currency, welfare, oil and pensions from Westminster's Scotland Analysis project, led by the Treasury. Whitehall officials say the SNP white paper willface forensic scrutiny. | |
| They assert that Salmond's model of independence – an "indy lite" brew where Scotland would have a currency union with the UK, use the Bank of England in London, share welfare services and need hefty UK subsidies to help his renewable energy revolution, would leave Scotland highly dependent on goodwill and collaboration with the rest of the UK and mean painfully strict controls over its public finances. | |
| And despite the 80-year quest by the SNP to convince them, opinion polls suggest Scotland's 4 million voters remain as sceptical or as opposed as ever. A series of recent surveys suggest as many as 65% of voters would say no next September, with a gap of around 20-30% between no and yes. | |
| Yet behind those headline figures are more subtle trends that are emboldening the pro-independence campaigners of Yes Scotland and the SNP. They show that perhaps 40-50% of voters are genuinely undecided, floating or willing to switch sides. | Yet behind those headline figures are more subtle trends that are emboldening the pro-independence campaigners of Yes Scotland and the SNP. They show that perhaps 40-50% of voters are genuinely undecided, floating or willing to switch sides. |
| Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, believes this shows his side are within reach of a win. Voters are being won over by the prospects of change. "We're very confident that the race is very close now and such movement is towards yes and at some point, the polls will catch up with yes," he said. | Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, believes this shows his side are within reach of a win. Voters are being won over by the prospects of change. "We're very confident that the race is very close now and such movement is towards yes and at some point, the polls will catch up with yes," he said. |
| Here the SNP and Yes Scotland are happily exploiting public discontent with the Tory-led government in London, particularly over welfare cuts such as the bedroom tax, and are building up support amongst leftwing, working-class voters and political activists. | Here the SNP and Yes Scotland are happily exploiting public discontent with the Tory-led government in London, particularly over welfare cuts such as the bedroom tax, and are building up support amongst leftwing, working-class voters and political activists. |
| Equally, Salmond's government has produced convincing evidence that Scotland's economy is as healthy as the UK's, and quite capable of prospering independently – if the challenging questions about taxation and spending are answered. | Equally, Salmond's government has produced convincing evidence that Scotland's economy is as healthy as the UK's, and quite capable of prospering independently – if the challenging questions about taxation and spending are answered. |
| It is here where Salmond and Yes Scotland are able to find leverage, suggesting that the Tories' "austerity fetish" and spending cuts are alien to Scotland's more inclusive, socially liberal values. So the potential for another Tory victory at the 2015 general election will be an influential factor in next September's vote. | It is here where Salmond and Yes Scotland are able to find leverage, suggesting that the Tories' "austerity fetish" and spending cuts are alien to Scotland's more inclusive, socially liberal values. So the potential for another Tory victory at the 2015 general election will be an influential factor in next September's vote. |
| That adds to the pressure on Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party – which despite Salmond's successes at Holyrood still commands a million votes in UK elections, the most of any party – to counter Salmond's proposals and offer Scotland a convincing alternative vision. | That adds to the pressure on Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party – which despite Salmond's successes at Holyrood still commands a million votes in UK elections, the most of any party – to counter Salmond's proposals and offer Scotland a convincing alternative vision. |
| Repeated opinion polls show Scottish voters want the Holyrood parliament to have more powers but Labour's moves to answer those demands are halting and undermined by internal political disputes. Its launch of an early draft of that alternative plan was badly bungled. | Repeated opinion polls show Scottish voters want the Holyrood parliament to have more powers but Labour's moves to answer those demands are halting and undermined by internal political disputes. Its launch of an early draft of that alternative plan was badly bungled. |
| It too needs a convincing alternative, and likely one agreed in advance of the referendum with the Tories and Liberal Democrats. Labour seems more intent on attacking Salmond on domestic Scottish issues, not on the far greater challenge of independence. | It too needs a convincing alternative, and likely one agreed in advance of the referendum with the Tories and Liberal Democrats. Labour seems more intent on attacking Salmond on domestic Scottish issues, not on the far greater challenge of independence. |
| That is in large part why Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor and chairman of the cross-party pro-UK campaign Better Together, warned in a Guardian interview last week that complacency was his campaign's greatest enemy. The anti-independence movement, he said, "has a fight on its hands". | That is in large part why Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor and chairman of the cross-party pro-UK campaign Better Together, warned in a Guardian interview last week that complacency was his campaign's greatest enemy. The anti-independence movement, he said, "has a fight on its hands". |
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