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Auto Sales in Europe Fall Again, but Bottom May Be Near Auto Sales in Europe Fall Again, but Bottom May Be Near
(about 3 hours later)
PARIS — European auto sales declined again in August, an industry group reported Tuesday, but analysts say the market bottom may be coming into sight. PARIS — European auto sales declined again in August, an industry group reported Tuesday, erasing a rare gain in July.
New passenger car registrations fell 5 percent in August from a year earlier, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported from Brussels. New passenger car registrations fell 5 percent in August from a year earlier, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported from Brusselsfollowing a 5 percent increase in July. The July gain marked only the second year-over-year rise in 2013, after a 1.7 percent rise in April.
The association released data for the two months simultaneously after its summer recess. Figures for the two months were distorted by calendar differences: August 2013 had one fewer working day than a year earlier, while July had one more.
For the first eight months of the year, sales were just 7,841,596 units, the lowest reading for that period since the association began tracking the data in 1990.For the first eight months of the year, sales were just 7,841,596 units, the lowest reading for that period since the association began tracking the data in 1990.
The August decline followed a 5 percent increase in July. The July gain marked only the second year-over-year gain in 2013, after a 1.7 percent rise in April. Figures for the two months were distorted by calendar differences: August 2013 had one fewer working day than a year earlier, while July had one more.
The association released data for the two months simultaneously after its summer recess.
Harald Hendrikse, an analyst at Nomura International in London, said that taken together, the two months appeared to have been roughly flat from a year earlier.Harald Hendrikse, an analyst at Nomura International in London, said that taken together, the two months appeared to have been roughly flat from a year earlier.
“The good news is that there is probably no more deterioration,” he said. “Clearly, from a low, low base, we are stabilizing. The bad news is that it’s not getting any better, either.”“The good news is that there is probably no more deterioration,” he said. “Clearly, from a low, low base, we are stabilizing. The bad news is that it’s not getting any better, either.”
The European auto market has been in retreat since the financial crisis, the downward progress halted at times only by the temporary stimulus of government cash-for-clunker programs, where owners receive tax rebates in exchange for trading in older cars.The European auto market has been in retreat since the financial crisis, the downward progress halted at times only by the temporary stimulus of government cash-for-clunker programs, where owners receive tax rebates in exchange for trading in older cars.
Unemployment is high in Europe – 12.1 percent in the 17-country euro zone and more than 25 percent in Spain and Greece. And cars are seen as a luxury, rather than a necessity, by those consumers who have access to good public transportation. Unemployment is high in Europe – 12.1 percent in the 17-country euro zoneand more than 25 percent in Spain and Greece. And cars are seen as a luxury, rather than a necessity, by those consumers who have access to good public transportation.
“With no new jobs, with a declining population and with an aging population, demand for new cars naturally declines,” Mr. Hendrikse said, noting that a similar phenomenon was occurring in Japan, where car demand has been shrinking for most of the past 25 years. In the United States, by contrast, car sales have been steadily exceeding last year’s pace.“With no new jobs, with a declining population and with an aging population, demand for new cars naturally declines,” Mr. Hendrikse said, noting that a similar phenomenon was occurring in Japan, where car demand has been shrinking for most of the past 25 years. In the United States, by contrast, car sales have been steadily exceeding last year’s pace.
Mr. Hendrikse predicted that European sales would decline about 5 percent this year and remain essentially flat in 2014. For 2015, he predicted a modest 2 percent increase.Mr. Hendrikse predicted that European sales would decline about 5 percent this year and remain essentially flat in 2014. For 2015, he predicted a modest 2 percent increase.
“The European market is still negative, but I think we are now close to the bottom,” Jérôme Stoll, head of sales and the chief performance officer at Renault, said at the Frankfurt motor show last week. “We expect the market to recover next year, not an outstanding recovery, but a recovery.”
Consumer confidence in Europe is increasing, he said, which eventually will push up car sales.
“People get the feeling the crisis is not completely over but we are coming close to the exit,” Mr. Stoll said in an interview. “Then you have the fact that people have not changed their cars for some time, they are getting older and you have to replace them.”
One quirk of the European slump has been that, among major markets, only British sales have held up this year. The British market grew by 10.9 percent in August from a year earlier. The German market, the largest in Europe, shrank by 5.5 percent, while France declined by 10.5 percent and Spain by 18.3 percent. Italian sales fell by 6.6 percent.One quirk of the European slump has been that, among major markets, only British sales have held up this year. The British market grew by 10.9 percent in August from a year earlier. The German market, the largest in Europe, shrank by 5.5 percent, while France declined by 10.5 percent and Spain by 18.3 percent. Italian sales fell by 6.6 percent.
Mr. Hendrikse, the Nomura analyst, said Britain’s resilience owed partly to the fact that the country was further along in the economic cycle than Europe and partly because British consumers were more willing to use credit for car purchases than their continental counterparts.Mr. Hendrikse, the Nomura analyst, said Britain’s resilience owed partly to the fact that the country was further along in the economic cycle than Europe and partly because British consumers were more willing to use credit for car purchases than their continental counterparts.
Among individual companies, Volkswagen, the largest European automaker, posted an 11.2 percent decline in August sales, led lower by the 17.3 percent drop in its flagship brand. Louise Wallis, a spokeswoman for the Retail Motor Industry Federation, a British trade group, said that at least half of all vehicles financed in Britain are now sold using deals known as “personal contract purchasing.”
Under such financing, the consumer pays relatively low monthly payments for three years, after which she has the option of either paying a large “balloon payment” and taking ownership, or simply returning the car to the manufacturer and starting over.
Most people opt to turn over the keys and get a new car, Ms. Wallis said.
Among European car companies, Volkswagen, the largest, posted an 11.2 percent decline in August sales, led lower by the 17.3 percent drop in its flagship brand.
Sales at the French automaker P.S.A. Peugeot Citroën, the Continent’s No. 2 automaker, fell 17.3 percent in August. Renault posted a 6 percent increase on the strength of its low-cost Dacia brand.Sales at the French automaker P.S.A. Peugeot Citroën, the Continent’s No. 2 automaker, fell 17.3 percent in August. Renault posted a 6 percent increase on the strength of its low-cost Dacia brand.
Daimler sales rose 5.8 percent on demand for its Mercedes-Benz cars, as sales of its Smart cars slid nearly 24 percent. BMW’s sales rose 9.8 percent.Daimler sales rose 5.8 percent on demand for its Mercedes-Benz cars, as sales of its Smart cars slid nearly 24 percent. BMW’s sales rose 9.8 percent.
Toyota’s European sales fell 5.4 percent in August, General Motors’ rose 0.5 percent, and Ford sales fell 1.5 percent.Toyota’s European sales fell 5.4 percent in August, General Motors’ rose 0.5 percent, and Ford sales fell 1.5 percent.

Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Frankfurt.

Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Frankfurt.