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Sophie Mirabella on verge of losing Indi Sophie Mirabella on verge of losing Indi
(about 7 hours later)
Sophie Mirabella is on the cusp of defeat in the Victorian electorate of Indi, with the Australian Electoral Commission confirming that independent challenger Cathy McGowan is "pretty certain" of victory as the final votes are counted.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission, McGowan's lead had been whittled down from more than 1,000 to 387 on Tuesday in a count of pre-poll absentee and provisional votes.

Mirabella has claimed 57.2% of the postal and pre-poll votes so far, partially due to her strong pre-poll campaign, unlike the McGowan camp, which hadn't factored postal votes into its strategy. The AEC told Guardian Australia there were just 645 pre-poll and postal votes left to process and count, making it unlikely that Mirabella, the incumbent Coalition MP, will overtake McGowan.
Sophie Mirabella is on the cusp of defeat in the Victorian electorate of Indi, with the Australian Electoral Commission confirming that independent challenger Cathy McGowan is "pretty certain" of victory as the final votes are counted.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission, McGowan's lead had been whittled down from more than 1,000 to 387 on Tuesday in a count of pre-poll absentee and provisional votes.

Mirabella has claimed 57.2% of the postal and pre-poll votes so far, partially due to her strong pre-poll campaign, unlike the McGowan camp, which hadn't factored postal votes into its strategy. The AEC told Guardian Australia there were just 645 pre-poll and postal votes left to process and count, making it unlikely that Mirabella, the incumbent Coalition MP, will overtake McGowan.
Steve Kennedy, the director of operations in the AEC's Victoria office, told Guardian Australia that McGowan was "pretty certain" of victory by more than 300 votes, based on current trends.

"I wouldn't like to speculate too much as I like to deal with the counting of votes rather than projections, but Cathy McGowan certainly has a reasonable lead on 387," he said.

Postal votes will be accepted until Friday, although the AEC has said these have "slowed to a trickle" and are unlikely to significantly affect the final result.

It's understood that the AEC will declare the poll either on Wednesday or Thursday. McGowan is waiting for the AEC to declare before claiming victory. A spokesman for Mirabella hadn't returned Guardian Australia's calls at the time of publication.

On Monday, Tony Abbott confirmed that Mirabella, who was shadow science minister, wouldn't be part of his first ministry, although he said he hoped she would "claw back" her deficit and overtake McGowan.

Mirabella has held Indi, a large rural electorate that covers Victoria's north-east, since 2001, but has suffered a fall in her primary vote ever since, including a 7% drop in this election.
Steve Kennedy, the director of operations in the AEC's Victoria office, told Guardian Australia that McGowan was "pretty certain" of victory by more than 300 votes, based on current trends.

"I wouldn't like to speculate too much as I like to deal with the counting of votes rather than projections, but Cathy McGowan certainly has a reasonable lead on 387," he said.

Postal votes will be accepted until Friday, although the AEC has said these have "slowed to a trickle" and are unlikely to significantly affect the final result.

It's understood that the AEC will declare the poll either on Wednesday or Thursday. McGowan is waiting for the AEC to declare before claiming victory. A spokesman for Mirabella hadn't returned Guardian Australia's calls at the time of publication.

On Monday, Tony Abbott confirmed that Mirabella, who was shadow science minister, wouldn't be part of his first ministry, although he said he hoped she would "claw back" her deficit and overtake McGowan.

Mirabella has held Indi, a large rural electorate that covers Victoria's north-east, since 2001, but has suffered a fall in her primary vote ever since, including a 7% drop in this election.
Should McGowan triumph, Mirabella will become the only sitting Liberal MP to lose their seat in the election.Should McGowan triumph, Mirabella will become the only sitting Liberal MP to lose their seat in the election.
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