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Bavaria Vote Points in Direction of Merkel’s Re-election as Germany’s Chancellor Bavarian Voting Gives German Chancellor’s Re-election Hopes a Mixed Blessing
(about 3 hours later)
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative allies appeared set to capture an absolute majority in Germany’s economically powerful state of Bavaria on Sunday, according to exit polls conducted by the country’s two main public television networks, in a race that was being scrutinized as an indicator of the country’s mood a week before the national elections. BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel got good and bad news on Sunday from Germany’s economically powerful state of Bavaria: her conservative allies captured an absolute majority in elections for the regional Parliament, but her current liberal partners in the national government failed to make the cut.
The Christian Social Union, the Bavarian party that governs in partnership with Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, had secured around 49 percent of the vote in the 180-seat state legislature, according the exit polls conducted by the networks ARD and ZDF. That result would translate to 102 seats for the conservatives, well above the 91 needed to form a majority government. In a race that was scrutinized as an indicator of the national mood before Sunday’s federal elections, the disastrous showing of just 3 percent for the Free Democrats — well short of the 5 percent needed to enter any German legislature — made it less likely that Ms. Merkel would be able to form another coalition government with them after the national vote.
The Christian Social Union, the Bavarian party that governs in partnership with Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, secured 48.3 percent of the vote in the 180-seat state legislature, according to the state election office, with almost 90 percent of the vote counted. That would translate into 101 seats for the conservatives, 10 more than needed to form a majority government.
Under Germany’s election system, voters are able to cast two votes, one for a party and one for a candidate. This can lead to results in which the percentage of voters does not always correlate directly with the number of seats a party wins.Under Germany’s election system, voters are able to cast two votes, one for a party and one for a candidate. This can lead to results in which the percentage of voters does not always correlate directly with the number of seats a party wins.
The conservative parties’ main rivals, the Social Democrats, were projected to win about 20 percent of the vote on Sunday. The conservative parties’ main rivals, the Social Democrats, won just over 20 percent of the vote on Sunday, according to the initial official results.
“The year 2008 is history. We are back,” a beaming Horst Seehofer, Bavaria’s state premier and leader of the Christian Social Union, said minutes after the first exit polls were announced. The party’s lead was clear enough to be proclaimed a victory, although initial official results were not expected until much later Sunday. “The year 2008 is history. We are back,” a beaming Horst Seehofer, Bavaria’s state premier and leader of the Christian Social Union, said minutes after the first exit polls heralded his triumph.
Five years ago, the Bavarian conservatives lost the absolute majority they had enjoyed for 56 years, turning to the pro-business Free Democrats to form a government that mirrored Ms. Merkel’s coalition in Berlin.Five years ago, the Bavarian conservatives lost the absolute majority they had enjoyed for 56 years, turning to the pro-business Free Democrats to form a government that mirrored Ms. Merkel’s coalition in Berlin.
The Free Democrats won only 3 percent support in Bavaria on Sunday, the exit polls suggested, a bitter loss that is likely to result in them ejected from the state legislature. The outcome raised alarm bells in Berlin, where the continuation of Ms. Merkel’s current coalition is dependent on a strong showing by the smaller party when the country elects a new Parliament on Sept. 22. Sunday’s outcome stirred anxiety in Berlin, where the continuation of Ms. Merkel’s current coalition government is dependent on a strong showing by the smaller party, which has struggled at the national level.
The Free Democratic Party has also been struggling at the national level. Despite Ms. Merkel’s comfortable lead in the polls over her main rival, Peer Steinbrück, concerns are growing that she may have no choice but to try to form a government with his center-left Social Democratic Party if the Free Democrats fail to make the crucial 5 percent threshold for the national Parliament, the Bundestag. Despite Ms. Merkel’s comfortable lead in the polls over her main rival, Peer Steinbrück, concerns are growing that she may have no choice but to try to form a government with his center-left Social Democratic Party if the Free Democrats fail to make the crucial 5 percent threshold or barely cross it.
The Free Democratic Party’s leader, Philipp Rösler, sought to rally supporters across the country by singling out Bavaria as unique. The Free Democratic Party’s leader, Philipp Rösler, sought to rally supporters nationwide by singling out Bavaria as unique.
“We all know that things are different in Bavaria, and from now on, it’s all about Germany,” Mr. Rösler said. “We all know that things are different in Bavaria, and from now on, it’s all about Germany,” Mr. Rösler said, adding that “this result is a wake-up call.”
The exit polls showed the Greens receiving about 8.5 percent of the vote, while the Free Voters, a Bavarian party that opposes Germany’s euro-zone policy, also was getting about 8.5 percent. The Greens received about 8.5 percent of the vote, while the Free Voters, a Bavarian party that opposes Germany’s euro-zone policy, hovered around 9 percent, the state election monitor said on its Web site.
The conservatives’ strong showing will not necessarily translate into equal success for Ms. Merkel next week. There is some fear that Bavarians, who make up Germany’s second-strongest voting bloc, could be less inclined to go to the polls two weeks in a row. “The mood for a change in the land was just not there,” said Theresa Schopper, a Greens leader in Bavaria, in an unusually frank assessment. Her party has struggled nationally this year, in part because of a poorly communicated message widely seen as raising taxes for many.
In addition, an overly strong showing by Mr. Seehofer could prove a problem for Ms. Merkel even if she is returned to office. His interpretation of conservatism has remained more traditional, while Ms. Merkel has steered her party toward more leftist issues, like creating more publicly run day care centers and deciding to shut down Germany’s nuclear power plants. The conservatives’ strong showing will not necessarily translate into equal success for Ms. Merkel next week. There is some fear that Bavarians, who make up Germany’s second-strongest voting bloc, could be less inclined to go to the polls two weeks in a row. And those who want to see the Free Democrats hang on may well use their second party vote that way rather than casting it for Ms. Merkel’s party. At her party’s headquarters in Berlin on Sunday night, the tension was palpable.
In addition, Mr. Seehofer’s strength could prove a problem for Ms. Merkel even if she is returned to office. His interpretation of conservatism has remained more traditional, while she has steered her party toward more leftist issues, like creating more publicly run day care centers and deciding to shut down Germany’s nuclear power plants.
While Bavaria’s capital, Munich, has become a diverse metropolitan area, home to some of Germany’s most powerful industrial and high-tech companies, much of the rest of the state is rural and socially conservative. The area still holds strong ties to the Roman Catholic Church and its unique cultural identity, stemming from its history as an independent kingdom.While Bavaria’s capital, Munich, has become a diverse metropolitan area, home to some of Germany’s most powerful industrial and high-tech companies, much of the rest of the state is rural and socially conservative. The area still holds strong ties to the Roman Catholic Church and its unique cultural identity, stemming from its history as an independent kingdom.
Bavaria has the lowest unemployment rate of Germany’s 16 states, with only 3.8 percent of its 12.5 million inhabitants out of work, and there has been growing unease in the state with Germany’s system under which economically stronger states distribute some of their tax earnings among weaker regions.Bavaria has the lowest unemployment rate of Germany’s 16 states, with only 3.8 percent of its 12.5 million inhabitants out of work, and there has been growing unease in the state with Germany’s system under which economically stronger states distribute some of their tax earnings among weaker regions.