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Bavarian poll results line up victory for Angela Merkel's CDU at national polls Bavarian poll results line up victory for Angela Merkel's CDU at national polls
(2 days later)
Voters in Germany's richest state on Sunday handed a resounding victory to allies of Angela Merkel, giving her conservatives a major lift a week before a national election.Voters in Germany's richest state on Sunday handed a resounding victory to allies of Angela Merkel, giving her conservatives a major lift a week before a national election.
Exit polls in Bavaria indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU), the regional branch of her Christian Democrats (CDU), had won an absolute majority of 49%.Exit polls in Bavaria indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU), the regional branch of her Christian Democrats (CDU), had won an absolute majority of 49%.
The Free Democrats, (FDP), a pro-business liberal party with whom Merkel is in coalition in the national government, trailed miserably with just 3%, leaving them significantly short of the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.The Free Democrats, (FDP), a pro-business liberal party with whom Merkel is in coalition in the national government, trailed miserably with just 3%, leaving them significantly short of the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
The CSU was forced to forge an alliance with the FDP five years ago after returning its worst result in the state for 60 years. It will now govern Bavaria alone, having secured 101 of the total number of 180 parliamentary seats.The CSU was forced to forge an alliance with the FDP five years ago after returning its worst result in the state for 60 years. It will now govern Bavaria alone, having secured 101 of the total number of 180 parliamentary seats.
Experts agreed the FDP's weak performance could have a major bearing on next week's national vote, with polls indicating they risk failing to reach the threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag.Experts agreed the FDP's weak performance could have a major bearing on next week's national vote, with polls indicating they risk failing to reach the threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag.
Bavaria's result could scare conservatives elsewhere in Germany into giving the second vote on their ballot papers to the FDP to try to aid the CDU's chances of re-entering a coalition with it. The most likely alternative to a conservative-liberal coalition would be a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats (SPD).Bavaria's result could scare conservatives elsewhere in Germany into giving the second vote on their ballot papers to the FDP to try to aid the CDU's chances of re-entering a coalition with it. The most likely alternative to a conservative-liberal coalition would be a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats (SPD).
But such tactical voting on behalf of conservative voters risks losing key votes from the CDU, as happened in January in the state of Lower Saxony when Merkel's party failed by just a few hundred votes to outpoll the opposition after conservative votes went to the FDP.But such tactical voting on behalf of conservative voters risks losing key votes from the CDU, as happened in January in the state of Lower Saxony when Merkel's party failed by just a few hundred votes to outpoll the opposition after conservative votes went to the FDP.
The CSU leader Horst Seehofer had called the election – in which 9.5 million out of a total population of 12.5 million Bavarians were eligible to vote – the "mother of all battles". Speaking shortly after the results were announced, Seehofer, the son of a lorry driver, called the result a "fantastic election victory", that proved that the CSU is "deeply anchored in the Bavarian population. Every second Bavarian man and woman voted for us," he said.The CSU leader Horst Seehofer had called the election – in which 9.5 million out of a total population of 12.5 million Bavarians were eligible to vote – the "mother of all battles". Speaking shortly after the results were announced, Seehofer, the son of a lorry driver, called the result a "fantastic election victory", that proved that the CSU is "deeply anchored in the Bavarian population. Every second Bavarian man and woman voted for us," he said.
Before the election, he had compared the poll with a football match as he addressed Chancellor Merkel, saying: "Dear Angela, we'll put the ball on the penalty spot, you just have to kick it in".Before the election, he had compared the poll with a football match as he addressed Chancellor Merkel, saying: "Dear Angela, we'll put the ball on the penalty spot, you just have to kick it in".
In other results in an election that was being followed closely by strategists across the political divide, the SPD secured 21% and the Greens 8.5%. Neither the Left party or the Pirates managed to enter parliament.In other results in an election that was being followed closely by strategists across the political divide, the SPD secured 21% and the Greens 8.5%. Neither the Left party or the Pirates managed to enter parliament.
The SPD was celebrating the fact that its performance put it around 1.5 percentage points higher than five years ago.The SPD was celebrating the fact that its performance put it around 1.5 percentage points higher than five years ago.
In a sign that voters were aware of the significance of this election for the national results, turnout was almost 7% higher than in 2008, at 64.5%.In a sign that voters were aware of the significance of this election for the national results, turnout was almost 7% higher than in 2008, at 64.5%.
But while the election in Germany's economic powerhouse was widely being interpreted as a bellwether for next week's election, one crucial factor missing from the political mix in the southern state was the recently-formed anti-Euro Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party, seen as a potential threat to Merkel.But while the election in Germany's economic powerhouse was widely being interpreted as a bellwether for next week's election, one crucial factor missing from the political mix in the southern state was the recently-formed anti-Euro Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party, seen as a potential threat to Merkel.
According to opinion polls, the party, which is not represented in Bavaria, is set to gain around 3% next Sunday. That would leave it short of the 5% needed to enter the Bundestag. But many analysts believe the Eurosceptics remain an unknown quantity, with the ability to garner far more support thanks to the high number of still undecided voters and a reluctance among Germans to appear anti-European despite deep misgivings over the country's handling of the Euro crisis.According to opinion polls, the party, which is not represented in Bavaria, is set to gain around 3% next Sunday. That would leave it short of the 5% needed to enter the Bundestag. But many analysts believe the Eurosceptics remain an unknown quantity, with the ability to garner far more support thanks to the high number of still undecided voters and a reluctance among Germans to appear anti-European despite deep misgivings over the country's handling of the Euro crisis.
The CSU is regarded as a political phenomenon, having ruled Bavaria uninterrupted for 56 years. In recent decades, it has attributed its success and that of Bavaria – Germany's wealthiest state and home to industrial giants such as Siemens and BMW – to a "laptop and lederhosen" formula, one that combines progress and tradition.The CSU is regarded as a political phenomenon, having ruled Bavaria uninterrupted for 56 years. In recent decades, it has attributed its success and that of Bavaria – Germany's wealthiest state and home to industrial giants such as Siemens and BMW – to a "laptop and lederhosen" formula, one that combines progress and tradition.
Even at a time of economic crisis, Bavaria is seen as an extraordinary success story, boasting the lowest unemployment rate in Germany, the best education results and among the highest growth rates, prompting Seehofer to refer to it as "the portal to paradise".Even at a time of economic crisis, Bavaria is seen as an extraordinary success story, boasting the lowest unemployment rate in Germany, the best education results and among the highest growth rates, prompting Seehofer to refer to it as "the portal to paradise".
Merkel is campaigning for a third term in office, which would set her on course to beat Margaret Thatcher in becoming Europe's longest serving female leader.Merkel is campaigning for a third term in office, which would set her on course to beat Margaret Thatcher in becoming Europe's longest serving female leader.
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