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The question that the Lib Dems are desperate not to answer The question that the Lib Dems are desperate not to answer
(3 days later)
Funny business, politics. The Lib Dems have gathered in Glasgow with a poll rating that scrapes around 10 points under a leader with even more dismal personal numbers. This may not be a reliable indicator of how many seats they will end up with in 2015 – my guess is that it is not – but at the moment the polls record the voters giving the party one of that city's famous kisses. Yet if you had to wager on which of David Cameron, Ed Miliband or Nick Clegg is most likely to find themselves in government after the next election, your most rewarding bet might be on the Lib Dem leader.Funny business, politics. The Lib Dems have gathered in Glasgow with a poll rating that scrapes around 10 points under a leader with even more dismal personal numbers. This may not be a reliable indicator of how many seats they will end up with in 2015 – my guess is that it is not – but at the moment the polls record the voters giving the party one of that city's famous kisses. Yet if you had to wager on which of David Cameron, Ed Miliband or Nick Clegg is most likely to find themselves in government after the next election, your most rewarding bet might be on the Lib Dem leader.
Across the parties, there is a lot of expectation that the next parliament will also be hung. One coalition could be followed by another. Which means it is safer to suggest that Nick Clegg will again be deputy prime minister than to identify who will be prime minister.Across the parties, there is a lot of expectation that the next parliament will also be hung. One coalition could be followed by another. Which means it is safer to suggest that Nick Clegg will again be deputy prime minister than to identify who will be prime minister.
For Mr Clegg and those other Lib Dems who share his ambition for the party, this would be a stunning development in their long-term fortunes as well as a major rupture in British political history. If the next election produces a return to single-party government, the current coalition will look like a freak event, a temporary interruption to the traditional pattern. The old red-blue duopoly on power will have reasserted itself; the Lib Dems will be cast back on to the margins. They will once again be on the "outside", as Paddy Ashdown puts it in the interview we publish today, rather than on the "inside". On the other hand, if this coalition is followed by another power-share, then Lib Dems will feel that they have achieved Mr Clegg's goal of irreversibly transforming themselves from "the third party" to "the third party of government".For Mr Clegg and those other Lib Dems who share his ambition for the party, this would be a stunning development in their long-term fortunes as well as a major rupture in British political history. If the next election produces a return to single-party government, the current coalition will look like a freak event, a temporary interruption to the traditional pattern. The old red-blue duopoly on power will have reasserted itself; the Lib Dems will be cast back on to the margins. They will once again be on the "outside", as Paddy Ashdown puts it in the interview we publish today, rather than on the "inside". On the other hand, if this coalition is followed by another power-share, then Lib Dems will feel that they have achieved Mr Clegg's goal of irreversibly transforming themselves from "the third party" to "the third party of government".
With this opportunity come some questions, questions they would prefer not to be asked at their conference or indeed at any other time. One especially enormous question is going to loom over the Lib Dems all the way from here to the last day of the next election campaign. They are going to be repeatedly asked: who would you prefer to govern with next time? Another term with the Tories? Or a switch to Labour? This is a question their leadership is desperate to avoid answering. They will tell anyone who raises it that it is silly even to ask. The next parliament might not be hung, in which case the question is academic. Even if it is, it will not necessarily hang in such a way as to make "kingmakers" of the Lib Dems. There is only a narrow range of permutations that would give Mr Clegg the power to choose whether the keys to Number 10 go to Ed Miliband or to David Cameron.With this opportunity come some questions, questions they would prefer not to be asked at their conference or indeed at any other time. One especially enormous question is going to loom over the Lib Dems all the way from here to the last day of the next election campaign. They are going to be repeatedly asked: who would you prefer to govern with next time? Another term with the Tories? Or a switch to Labour? This is a question their leadership is desperate to avoid answering. They will tell anyone who raises it that it is silly even to ask. The next parliament might not be hung, in which case the question is academic. Even if it is, it will not necessarily hang in such a way as to make "kingmakers" of the Lib Dems. There is only a narrow range of permutations that would give Mr Clegg the power to choose whether the keys to Number 10 go to Ed Miliband or to David Cameron.
The last election result really only made a Con-Lib coalition viable. A Lab-Lib deal was made to seem possible for about 72 hours because some Labour people worked frantically to keep it alive and the Lib Dems found it useful as a bargaining lever in their negotiations with the Tories. But the parliamentary arithmetic never stacked up for a stable Lab-Lib coalition because it would have entailed relying on a clutch of smaller parties.The last election result really only made a Con-Lib coalition viable. A Lab-Lib deal was made to seem possible for about 72 hours because some Labour people worked frantically to keep it alive and the Lib Dems found it useful as a bargaining lever in their negotiations with the Tories. But the parliamentary arithmetic never stacked up for a stable Lab-Lib coalition because it would have entailed relying on a clutch of smaller parties.
The maths will again be crucial after the next election. Whether there is another coalition also greatly depends upon the Lib Dems avoiding the obliteration currently implied by the pollsters and having sufficient MPs to provide a majority for either Labour or the Tories.The maths will again be crucial after the next election. Whether there is another coalition also greatly depends upon the Lib Dems avoiding the obliteration currently implied by the pollsters and having sufficient MPs to provide a majority for either Labour or the Tories.
So it is true enough that they can't foresee what hand they will be dealt by the electorate. No one can be sure of that unless they have the use of a time machine. But that is not an answer to the question asked. The question asked is: who would they prefer to be in coalition with? I don't need to know whether a restaurant serves steak and chips to tell you that is what I would like for dinner.So it is true enough that they can't foresee what hand they will be dealt by the electorate. No one can be sure of that unless they have the use of a time machine. But that is not an answer to the question asked. The question asked is: who would they prefer to be in coalition with? I don't need to know whether a restaurant serves steak and chips to tell you that is what I would like for dinner.
They don't want to say because they can't agree. They are divided on the question. More, they are split several complex ways in several different dimensions. There is the ideological tension, which will be expressed in some of the debates in Glasgow this week, between leftish Lib Dems who see Labour as their more natural partner and the rightish Lib Dems who feel more affinity with the Tories. To confront the question openly would turn a split into a schism.They don't want to say because they can't agree. They are divided on the question. More, they are split several complex ways in several different dimensions. There is the ideological tension, which will be expressed in some of the debates in Glasgow this week, between leftish Lib Dems who see Labour as their more natural partner and the rightish Lib Dems who feel more affinity with the Tories. To confront the question openly would turn a split into a schism.
They are divided temperamentally. Some of them have broadly enjoyed working with Tories, built relationships with some Conservatives, think they now know how to do business with them. Others think enough – more than enough. They shudder at the prospect of another term of battling and haggling with the Tories over issues such as immigration, welfare and Europe. On this view, Labour would be easier to work with because, in the words of one Lib Dem: "We'd be starting from scratch."They are divided temperamentally. Some of them have broadly enjoyed working with Tories, built relationships with some Conservatives, think they now know how to do business with them. Others think enough – more than enough. They shudder at the prospect of another term of battling and haggling with the Tories over issues such as immigration, welfare and Europe. On this view, Labour would be easier to work with because, in the words of one Lib Dem: "We'd be starting from scratch."
They are divided on the longer-term impact of the choice. The Lib Dems will have a particularly hard struggle at the next election in those of their seats where Labour is the challenger. Sarah Teather, who announced through the Observer that she was quitting her north London seat, has seen the writing on that wall.They are divided on the longer-term impact of the choice. The Lib Dems will have a particularly hard struggle at the next election in those of their seats where Labour is the challenger. Sarah Teather, who announced through the Observer that she was quitting her north London seat, has seen the writing on that wall.
Follow five years with the Conservatives by moving to Labour, at the election after next the Lib Dems would then have a struggle to hold many of their Tory-facing seats. Some Lib Dems fear that going one way and then the other could ultimately leave them shrinking back to the days when their MPs could be comfortably accommodated in a people carrier.Follow five years with the Conservatives by moving to Labour, at the election after next the Lib Dems would then have a struggle to hold many of their Tory-facing seats. Some Lib Dems fear that going one way and then the other could ultimately leave them shrinking back to the days when their MPs could be comfortably accommodated in a people carrier.
Go with the Tories for another term and the risk is that the Lib Dems look like the permanent junior yellow cadre of the blue army. Go with Labour and the risk is that they look like a gang of side-switching mercenaries.Go with the Tories for another term and the risk is that the Lib Dems look like the permanent junior yellow cadre of the blue army. Go with Labour and the risk is that they look like a gang of side-switching mercenaries.
They are so riven by these dilemmas that I have more than once heard an individual Lib Dem argue both sides of the coin and come down on neither.They are so riven by these dilemmas that I have more than once heard an individual Lib Dem argue both sides of the coin and come down on neither.
This relates to a further argument about how they should project themselves at the next election. The feeling among some in Mr Clegg's circle seems to be that their message ought to be safe and rather boring, snoring. They would place most emphasis on the experience of their ministers and what they've done in government. Tomorrow's conference clash about the economy is regarded as so crucial by Mr Clegg and his allies because they believe it is essential that the party gets some of the credit if the recovery is sustained. But "more of the same" is not as safe a pitch as it might sound. Paddy Ashdown articulates one of the problems with it when he says: "I don't think people vote at elections for what you've done. The public don't do gratitude."This relates to a further argument about how they should project themselves at the next election. The feeling among some in Mr Clegg's circle seems to be that their message ought to be safe and rather boring, snoring. They would place most emphasis on the experience of their ministers and what they've done in government. Tomorrow's conference clash about the economy is regarded as so crucial by Mr Clegg and his allies because they believe it is essential that the party gets some of the credit if the recovery is sustained. But "more of the same" is not as safe a pitch as it might sound. Paddy Ashdown articulates one of the problems with it when he says: "I don't think people vote at elections for what you've done. The public don't do gratitude."
Another peril is that they end up sounding like little echoes of the Tories. So other Lib Dems contend that they will have to refire their radicalism and be "bold and surprising" in what they offer to the country if they don't want to be squeezed out of the conversation.Another peril is that they end up sounding like little echoes of the Tories. So other Lib Dems contend that they will have to refire their radicalism and be "bold and surprising" in what they offer to the country if they don't want to be squeezed out of the conversation.
Blues or reds? There's a further reason why they don't want to answer this big, bad question. About a quarter of the electorate say they would "consider" voting for the party. The Lib Dem's hopes of holding more seats than the polls currently project depends on converting these voters into "probables" or "definites".Blues or reds? There's a further reason why they don't want to answer this big, bad question. About a quarter of the electorate say they would "consider" voting for the party. The Lib Dem's hopes of holding more seats than the polls currently project depends on converting these voters into "probables" or "definites".
In that pool of potential supporters are centre-left voters and centre-right voters. Look too keen on governing with Labour and you alienate one group; sound like you'd prefer to extend your partnership with the Tories and you repel the other. So, as we get closer to the election, the Lib Dems will shift into a position more neutral between Labour and the Conservatives – what they used to call "equidistance". That process will begin this week. Nick Clegg plans to devote a meaty chunk of his leader's speech to listing all the things he has blocked the Tories from doing. He calls it "lifting the veil" or "showing how the sausages are made".In that pool of potential supporters are centre-left voters and centre-right voters. Look too keen on governing with Labour and you alienate one group; sound like you'd prefer to extend your partnership with the Tories and you repel the other. So, as we get closer to the election, the Lib Dems will shift into a position more neutral between Labour and the Conservatives – what they used to call "equidistance". That process will begin this week. Nick Clegg plans to devote a meaty chunk of his leader's speech to listing all the things he has blocked the Tories from doing. He calls it "lifting the veil" or "showing how the sausages are made".
This raises an interesting issue of coalition etiquette. How attractive do the Lib Dems look as coalition partners – to the Tories or to Labour – if they are going to hiss and tell on the other party as an election comes up on the horizon? It also invites retaliation. The Conservatives say they have dossiers filled with "loopy" Lib Dem ideas that they put a stop to. A prolonged display of the coalition's soiled underwear is unlikely to be to the benefit of either party.This raises an interesting issue of coalition etiquette. How attractive do the Lib Dems look as coalition partners – to the Tories or to Labour – if they are going to hiss and tell on the other party as an election comes up on the horizon? It also invites retaliation. The Conservatives say they have dossiers filled with "loopy" Lib Dem ideas that they put a stop to. A prolonged display of the coalition's soiled underwear is unlikely to be to the benefit of either party.
The Lib Dem leader has told colleagues that he is conscious of these hazards and is aware that what he will say will sound "very rude" in Tory ears. Yet he will do it anyway. He thinks it is vitally necessary to clarify and justify their role in this coalition. He also believes it helps to make his case that one of the values of having Lib Dems in government is that they can put the brake on the excesses of both the Tories and Labour.The Lib Dem leader has told colleagues that he is conscious of these hazards and is aware that what he will say will sound "very rude" in Tory ears. Yet he will do it anyway. He thinks it is vitally necessary to clarify and justify their role in this coalition. He also believes it helps to make his case that one of the values of having Lib Dems in government is that they can put the brake on the excesses of both the Tories and Labour.
It is also another way of avoiding the dangerous question: which of them do you actually prefer?It is also another way of avoiding the dangerous question: which of them do you actually prefer?
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