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| Geneva deal on Syria is welcome step but deeper divisions remain | Geneva deal on Syria is welcome step but deeper divisions remain |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The agreement in Geneva between the US and Russia on disarming Syria's chemical stockpile looks impressive on paper. It sets out a firm time frame for compliance. Syria must report what chemical stocks it holds within a week, far faster than the month President Bashar al-Assad requested. UN inspectors must be on the ground by November, and the stockpiles destroyed by the middle of next year. | The agreement in Geneva between the US and Russia on disarming Syria's chemical stockpile looks impressive on paper. It sets out a firm time frame for compliance. Syria must report what chemical stocks it holds within a week, far faster than the month President Bashar al-Assad requested. UN inspectors must be on the ground by November, and the stockpiles destroyed by the middle of next year. |
| Failure to comply, as both the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, agreed, would result in a reference to the UN security council under chapter 7 of the UN charter – "Action with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression". Optimistically the compliance process is being tied to the Geneva 2 peace conference. | Failure to comply, as both the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, agreed, would result in a reference to the UN security council under chapter 7 of the UN charter – "Action with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression". Optimistically the compliance process is being tied to the Geneva 2 peace conference. |
| The reality however is that the devil will be in the detail. Even as the two men spoke it was clear, from comments by Barack Obama and other officials that the red lines on all sides remain where they were at the beginning of this week. | The reality however is that the devil will be in the detail. Even as the two men spoke it was clear, from comments by Barack Obama and other officials that the red lines on all sides remain where they were at the beginning of this week. |
| The US – in the comments of both Kerry and Obama – still hold up the "possibility" of the threat of force if there is non-compliance from Syria, a step back in its military posture from a week ago. Definitions of full compliance, in any case, are likely to be contested over the coming months. | The US – in the comments of both Kerry and Obama – still hold up the "possibility" of the threat of force if there is non-compliance from Syria, a step back in its military posture from a week ago. Definitions of full compliance, in any case, are likely to be contested over the coming months. |
| The real issue lies is what has been papered over in Geneva – the fundamental differences between Moscow and Washington over how the conflict in Syria should be brought to an end. Instead the deal confines the conflict to the narrowest of issues – albeit a very serious one – over the past use and future retention of chemical weapons. | |
| The wider war, which has claimed over 100,000 lives on both sides and displaced 6.6 million, will continue with conventional weapons. And in the event of non-compliance the same arguments seen over recent months will be revisited. Because under chapter 7 there are different available options not least articles 41 and 42. | The wider war, which has claimed over 100,000 lives on both sides and displaced 6.6 million, will continue with conventional weapons. And in the event of non-compliance the same arguments seen over recent months will be revisited. Because under chapter 7 there are different available options not least articles 41 and 42. |
| Under the text of article 41, "the security council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the members of the United Nations to apply such measures. | Under the text of article 41, "the security council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the members of the United Nations to apply such measures. |
| "These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations." | "These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations." |
| If that fails, the security council can invoke article 42, authorising it to "take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of members of the United Nations." | If that fails, the security council can invoke article 42, authorising it to "take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of members of the United Nations." |
| It is precisely this which remains a red line for Russia, not least under the new foreign policy unveiled by Putin earlier this year which commits Russia to blocking any such action by the west. More widely, it is not clear in any way that Russia has changed in its objections voiced at the first Geneva peace conference to a political route forward that would see the departure of Assad, one of the sticking points. | It is precisely this which remains a red line for Russia, not least under the new foreign policy unveiled by Putin earlier this year which commits Russia to blocking any such action by the west. More widely, it is not clear in any way that Russia has changed in its objections voiced at the first Geneva peace conference to a political route forward that would see the departure of Assad, one of the sticking points. |
| In other words, for all the apparent progress, the can of the Syrian war has been kicked down the road by the imposition of various conditions, many of which surround the key issues. There may be no more chemical attacks but for the foreseeable future the war and the humanitarian catastrope will continue. | In other words, for all the apparent progress, the can of the Syrian war has been kicked down the road by the imposition of various conditions, many of which surround the key issues. There may be no more chemical attacks but for the foreseeable future the war and the humanitarian catastrope will continue. |
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