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Alistair Darling: Scottish independence outcome is 'pretty fluid' Alistair Darling: Scottish independence outcome is 'pretty fluid'
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Alistair Darling has admitted that Alex Salmond could yet win next year's Scottish independence referendum because a "substantial number" of voters were still undecided about remaining in the UK.Alistair Darling has admitted that Alex Salmond could yet win next year's Scottish independence referendum because a "substantial number" of voters were still undecided about remaining in the UK.
Darling, the former Labour chancellor and now chairman of the pro-UK Better Together campaign, told the Guardian that public opinion in Scotland was "pretty fluid" despite a spate of opinion polls indicating a solid lead for a "no" vote on independence.Darling, the former Labour chancellor and now chairman of the pro-UK Better Together campaign, told the Guardian that public opinion in Scotland was "pretty fluid" despite a spate of opinion polls indicating a solid lead for a "no" vote on independence.
Insisting that the pro-union movement had "a fight on its hands", Darling signalled that his campaign would be stepping up its attacks on Alex Salmond's case for independence and making the case that Scotland should remain in the UK.Insisting that the pro-union movement had "a fight on its hands", Darling signalled that his campaign would be stepping up its attacks on Alex Salmond's case for independence and making the case that Scotland should remain in the UK.
"I reckon there's a very substantial number of people in Scotland who have yet to make their minds up," the former chancellor said. "If you press them now, they might say 'yes' or 'no' but for perfectly understandable reasons, these are people who might be open to [changing] their [minds].""I reckon there's a very substantial number of people in Scotland who have yet to make their minds up," the former chancellor said. "If you press them now, they might say 'yes' or 'no' but for perfectly understandable reasons, these are people who might be open to [changing] their [minds]."
Pro-independence campaigners are staging about 200 local events around Scotland this weekend to mark one year until the referendum, scheduled for 18 September 2014.Pro-independence campaigners are staging about 200 local events around Scotland this weekend to mark one year until the referendum, scheduled for 18 September 2014.
Salmond, the first minister, is working on the final draft of his government's highly detailed white paper on independence, which is due to be published in November, and which will signal the start of the full-scale campaign to leave the UK led by his government and Yes Scotland.Salmond, the first minister, is working on the final draft of his government's highly detailed white paper on independence, which is due to be published in November, and which will signal the start of the full-scale campaign to leave the UK led by his government and Yes Scotland.
Anti-independence campaigners were buoyed by several polls earlier this month, which gave a substantial lead to the "no" vote of between 22% and 30% – confirming persistent indicators that independence has only minority support.Anti-independence campaigners were buoyed by several polls earlier this month, which gave a substantial lead to the "no" vote of between 22% and 30% – confirming persistent indicators that independence has only minority support.
One "super poll" of 10,000 voters by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, that was done earlier this year and which was the largest ever conducted in Scotland, gave "no" an apparently unassailable 40 point lead over "yes", at 65% to 25%.One "super poll" of 10,000 voters by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, that was done earlier this year and which was the largest ever conducted in Scotland, gave "no" an apparently unassailable 40 point lead over "yes", at 65% to 25%.
But one poll for the Scottish National party by Panelbase gave the "yes" vote a one point lead, at 44% in favour of independence and 43% against. It was criticised for asking the independence question after it had posed two leading questions on independence and on the Scottish parliament, but yes campaigners said it signalled that voters could be persuaded to support independence.But one poll for the Scottish National party by Panelbase gave the "yes" vote a one point lead, at 44% in favour of independence and 43% against. It was criticised for asking the independence question after it had posed two leading questions on independence and on the Scottish parliament, but yes campaigners said it signalled that voters could be persuaded to support independence.
Blair Jenkins, the chief executive of Yes Scotland, told the Guardian he was extremely confident that the polls were over-simplifying voters' views – a tacit agreement with his opponent, Alistair Darling.Blair Jenkins, the chief executive of Yes Scotland, told the Guardian he was extremely confident that the polls were over-simplifying voters' views – a tacit agreement with his opponent, Alistair Darling.
Their private polling and canvassing showed around half of Scotland's four million voters were floating voters, "potentially moveable" or undecided, Jenkins said.Their private polling and canvassing showed around half of Scotland's four million voters were floating voters, "potentially moveable" or undecided, Jenkins said.
"I think this is an extremely difficult event to track in terms of conventional polling because people aren't aligning in expected ways." This is "a very individual event and a unique decision," Jenkins added."I think this is an extremely difficult event to track in terms of conventional polling because people aren't aligning in expected ways." This is "a very individual event and a unique decision," Jenkins added.
Their research suggested that as voters became more informed about the case for independence, on controlling policies such as taxation and welfare, the more they shifted to a "yes" vote.Their research suggested that as voters became more informed about the case for independence, on controlling policies such as taxation and welfare, the more they shifted to a "yes" vote.
"I think that the sense they will get the right outcomes and the right policies for Scotland if those decisions are taken in Scotland, rather than Westminster, I think people are getting their heads around that now," Jenkins said."I think that the sense they will get the right outcomes and the right policies for Scotland if those decisions are taken in Scotland, rather than Westminster, I think people are getting their heads around that now," Jenkins said.
"We're very confident that the race is very close now and such movement is towards 'yes'. At some point, the polls will catch up with 'yes'; at which point that might be, I don't know.""We're very confident that the race is very close now and such movement is towards 'yes'. At some point, the polls will catch up with 'yes'; at which point that might be, I don't know."
In a separate interview with the Guardian, Darling disputed Jenkins's analysis. He said the polls remained in the "no" camp's favour, but that it would be a mistake for his campaign to rely on headline polling figures a year before the vote.In a separate interview with the Guardian, Darling disputed Jenkins's analysis. He said the polls remained in the "no" camp's favour, but that it would be a mistake for his campaign to rely on headline polling figures a year before the vote.
"You can't possibly call the result of the referendum at the moment," Darling said. "The worst possible thing [would be] for people to become complacent and think 'it's alright, it isn't going to happen'."You can't possibly call the result of the referendum at the moment," Darling said. "The worst possible thing [would be] for people to become complacent and think 'it's alright, it isn't going to happen'.
"A nationalist who fervently believes in nationalism is going to be at the polling station at five to seven in the morning, and is guaranteed to turn out. I don't want people who share my view to think 'I don't want to bother, the result's in the bag'. It's not.""A nationalist who fervently believes in nationalism is going to be at the polling station at five to seven in the morning, and is guaranteed to turn out. I don't want people who share my view to think 'I don't want to bother, the result's in the bag'. It's not."
Darling said the main challenge for Better Together – an alliance between Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats – was to expose the weaknesses in Salmond's recent proposals for a sterling zone currency union, for sharing welfare services and on joining Nato after decades of opposition to the alliance.Darling said the main challenge for Better Together – an alliance between Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats – was to expose the weaknesses in Salmond's recent proposals for a sterling zone currency union, for sharing welfare services and on joining Nato after decades of opposition to the alliance.
"This is about the future of the UK, it's about the possibility of bringing to an end a 300-year-old union and, if we choose independence, possibly a one way ticket to a deeply uncertain destination. People know that," Darling said."This is about the future of the UK, it's about the possibility of bringing to an end a 300-year-old union and, if we choose independence, possibly a one way ticket to a deeply uncertain destination. People know that," Darling said.
"Even if you put pretty large pinches of salt on the polls, it's pretty clear that people do actually understand what the issues are. If I [were] a nationalist scrabbling around for reasons to vote, [I] would clutch at just about everything. Which is why their position on so many things has changed so quickly.""Even if you put pretty large pinches of salt on the polls, it's pretty clear that people do actually understand what the issues are. If I [were] a nationalist scrabbling around for reasons to vote, [I] would clutch at just about everything. Which is why their position on so many things has changed so quickly."
He rejected allegations that his campaign, nicknamed "Project Fear" by its opponents, was driven by negativity. Challenging Salmond on detail was central to the debate.He rejected allegations that his campaign, nicknamed "Project Fear" by its opponents, was driven by negativity. Challenging Salmond on detail was central to the debate.
"Being negative in Scotland is asking Alex Salmond a question to which he doesn't know the answer, and I intend to carry on asking him those questions because all the evidence is, the more you question him, the more things fall apart," Darling said."Being negative in Scotland is asking Alex Salmond a question to which he doesn't know the answer, and I intend to carry on asking him those questions because all the evidence is, the more you question him, the more things fall apart," Darling said.
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